Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Intel(INTC) Forecast Tops Estimates as PC Recovery Holds Up. Intel Corp., the world’s biggest chipmaker, forecast second-quarter sales that topped analysts’ predictions, citing growing worldwide demand for computers. The shares rose in late trading. Sales will be $10.2 billion, plus or minus $400 million, the Santa Clara, California-based company said today in its quarterly earnings statement. Analysts had estimated $9.72 billion on average, according to a Bloomberg survey. The construction of data centers and the continuing shift to mobile computers will drive growth for the rest of the year, Intel said. That prompted the company to increase its full-year gross margin forecast to about 64 percent from roughly 61 percent. The prediction follows record first-quarter sales, fueled by consumers ordering laptops. “They’re very strong numbers,” said Cody Acree, an analyst at Williams Financial Group in Dallas. He has a “hold” rating on Intel shares. “It’s well above what anyone was expecting.” Intel rose 82 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $23.59 in extended trading following the announcement. Customers aren’t building up excess stockpiles of chips, a sign the industry isn’t at risk for a supply glut, Stacy Smith, Intel’s chief financial officer, said in an interview. “When we look through the supply chain, what we see are healthy and appropriate inventory levels relative to how we see demand,” he said. “It was an incredible first quarter for us.” Cloud computing, which lets businesses get their software and information over the Internet from external data centers, also is fueling demand for server chips, Smith said. Notebook shipments jumped 37 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier and account for 61 percent of the market, according to El Segundo, California-based ISuppli Corp. “Intel is in front of the best product cycle in years,” said Gerra, who has an “outperform” rating on the stock and doesn’t own it. “On top of that, we believe that Intel is gaining market share.”
• Senate Considering Higher Tax on Buyout-Firm Managers. The U.S. Senate, seeking revenue to fund jobs bills and other initiatives, is for the first time considering adopting a House proposal that would more than double tax rates on executives at private-equity firms, said Senator Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat. The proposal, projected to raise $24.6 billion over a decade, would affect venture capitalists, managers of real- estate partnerships, and hedge-fund managers who make long-term investments. Passed by the House three times, most recently in December as part of a jobs bill, it hasn’t come to a vote in the Senate, where some Democrats have signaled they would oppose it. Now, “it’s one of the things being considered,” said Schumer, who serves on the Finance Committee. Democrats in Congress need to tap new sources of revenue for any spending after the passage last month of $940 billion health-care bill. Private-equity and investment firms have given $5.7 million for the 2010 congressional elections, 69 percent of that amount to Democrats, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington-based group that tracks political giving.
• WaMu Chief Killinger Didn't Trust Goldman Sachs(GS), E-Mails Show. Washington Mutual Inc.’s former Chief Executive Officer, Kerry Killinger, didn’t trust Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS) to give the bank advice in 2007 as it slid toward collapse, according to e-mail released by Congressional investigators. “I don’t trust Goldy on this,” Killinger wrote in an Oct. 12, 2007, e-mail reply to Todd Baker, Washington Mutual’s executive vice president for corporate strategy and development. “They are smart, but this is swimming with the sharks. They were shorting mortgages big time while they were giving CfC advice,” he said, referring to Countrywide Financial Corp., the home lender that ran short of cash the same year. “John himself is very discreet but we always need to worry a little about Goldman because we need them more than they need us and the firm is run by traders,” Baker wrote, according to the documents available on the Permanent Subcommittee of Investigations Web site. Billionaire Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs during the financial crisis, which was partly a bet on the “integrity” of the Wall Street firm, Berkshire director Ronald Olson said in an interview this week with Bloomberg Television.
• Baxter(BAX) Drug Alzheimer's Patients Maintain Brain. Baxter International’s treatment for immune system disorders also helped Alzheimer’s patients retain brain size and function after 18 months in a study that suggests the drug may top current regimens, researchers said.
• Avoiding Bailout 'Backlash' Key to BlackRock(BLK) on Greek Debt. European Union members planning to participate in a Greece bailout need to show they can withstand a “backlash” from citizens before the world’s largest asset manager will buy new Greek debt, according to Curtis Arledge, chief investment officer of fixed income at BlackRock Inc. “We want to see the EU countries really get behind it and see that they’ve gelled around the idea of providing this support at the government level, at the senior policy maker level,” Arledge said in an interview today with Bloomberg News. “If you see the backlash, they need to get their people on board.”
• CSX(CSX) Beats Profit Estimate as Rail Volumes, Sales Rise. CSX Corp. reported a first-quarter profit of 78 cents a share that beat analysts’ estimates as the third-largest U.S. railroad hauled more goods and charged more for each carload. Net income rose 24 percent to $306 million from $246 million, or 62 cents a share, a year earlier, the Jacksonville, Florida-based carrier said in a statement today. Sales climbed 11 percent to $2.49 billion, CSX said. Freight carloads climbed 5 percent, paced by increases for commodities such as chemicals, metals and fertilizers and a gain in shipments of goods that move by a combination of rail, truck and ship, CSX said. Revenue from each carload rose 6 percent. Analysts expected an adjusted profit of 70 cents a share, based on the average of 24 estimates compiled by Bloomberg, and net income of 68 cents, the average of 14 estimates. CSX rose 58 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $53.86 at 5:30 p.m. in New York.
• China Raises Diesel, Gasoline Prices 4.6% on Crude. China, the world’s second-largest energy user, will increase gasoline and diesel prices by as much as 4.6 percent from today after global crude costs climbed. The average retail gasoline and diesel price will rise by 320 yuan ($47) a metric ton, the National Development and Reform Commission said on its Web site yesterday. The NDRC said the fuel price gain will add 7 basis points to the April consumer price index month-on-month. The increase will boost costs for manufacturers and farmers and may add to inflationary risk.
• Toyota Halts Sales of Lexus SUV Labeled 'Safety Risk'. Toyota Motor Corp. asked U.S. Lexus dealers to halt sales of GX 460 sport-utility vehicles after Consumer Reports labeled the model a “safety risk,” the magazine’s first such designation in nine years. “We are taking the situation with the GX 460 very seriously and are determined to identify and correct the issue Consumer Reports identified,” Mark Templin, U.S. general manager for the luxury brand, said in an e-mail.
• Soros Says Greek 'Death Spiral' Risk Remains After Aid Package. Greece still faces the danger of a “death spiral” because the cost of borrowing in the euro region’s rescue package is too expensive, billionaire investor George Soros said. “Concessional rates” of borrowing aid would help Greece “fulfill their target,” Soros said. “If they don’t they have then to tighten even further, then your tax receipts go down and the economy goes further into tanking and then you go into a death spiral. That is the danger that is still remaining.” “The argument for political will to bail out Greece” was that “the consequences of Greece leaving the euro would be the disintegration of the euro,” Soros said. “The disintegration of the euro would take a very long way toward the disintegration of the European Union.

Wall Street Journal:

• Washington State Files Suit Over Nuclear-Wast Site. Washington state has filed suit to stop the federal government from permanently abandoning the Yucca Mountain nuclear-waste repository, marking the latest clash in a longstanding dispute over where the nation's radioactive waste should be stored. Waste and spent nuclear fuel from south-central Washington's Tri-Cities, site of the highly contaminated Hanford nuclear reservation and the Northwest's only commercial nuclear plant, had long been intended to go to Yucca Mountain.
• Morgan Stanley(MS) Property Fund Faces $5.4 Billion Loss. Morgan Stanley has told investors in its $8.8 billion real-estate fund that it may lose nearly two-thirds of its money from bum property investments, according to fund documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. That would likely make it the biggest dollar loss—$5.4 billion—in the history of private-equity real-estate investing. Over the past 20 years, Morgan Stanley's real-estate unit was one of the biggest buyers of property around the world, doing some $174 billion in deals since 1991, mostly with money raised from pension funds, college endowments and foreign investors. The losses come from investments in properties such as the European Central Bank's Frankfurt headquarters, a big development project in Tokyo and InterContinental hotels across Europe, among others.
• 'Spreading The Wealth' Isn't Fair. If you think spreading money around by force seems like an odd definition of fairness, you're not alone. A 2009 survey conducted by the polling firm Ayers-McHenry asked respondents to choose which of the following statements came closer to their views: "Government policies should promote fairness by narrowing the gap between rich and poor, spreading the wealth, and making sure that economic outcomes are more equal"; or "Government policies should promote opportunity by fostering job growth, encouraging entrepreneurs, and allowing people to keep more of what they earn." Respondents chose the second option over the first, 63% to 31%. Most Americans think tax rates are already unfairly high. A February 2009 Harris poll found that on average, Americans believe the maximum amount anyone should have to pay in total taxes is less than 16% of income. The Tax Policy Center notes that families earning $75,000 and above are paying more than this in federal taxes alone; the highest income earners pay much more. Nor do Americans believe it is fair to expand the pool of people with no income tax liability at all. According to a Tax Foundation poll in April 2009, 66% of Americans agree with the statement that "Everyone should be required to pay some minimum amount of tax to help fund government." People understand that good citizenship means we all contribute in some way to the national project. Simple facts about our tax system do not support the contention that it is "unfair" in favor of the rich. According to the most recent IRS data, the top 5% of earners bring in 37% of the income but pay 60% of the federal individual income taxes. The bottom half of earners bring home 12% of the income but pay 3% of the taxes. Today, according to the Tax Foundation, 60% of Americans consume more in government services than they pay in taxes. In sum: A large majority disagrees with the current administration's redistributionist philosophy; believes the rich already face a tax rate that is too high; and disapproves of the fact that more and more Americans pay nothing in federal income taxes.

IBD:

• Are Sensor Maker's Products About To Find Their Way Into iPhone? Wall Street tends to take a shine to smallish companies that land business with the titans of industry. That's been the case at OmniVision Technologies(OVTI). The Santa Clara, Calif.-based company makes image sensor chips for compact cameras. Its gear is used in smart phones, digital cameras, cars, medical devices and other products.

Forbes:

• The Hidden Price Of Radical Environmentalism.

Business Insider:

• New Jersey Teachers Union Official Wants Governor Dead For Proposing Salary Freeze. Governor Christie is calling for the firing of the Teachers' Union official who sought prayers for Christie's death. Christie was discussing death threats and other items on CNBC. (Video below) New Jersey has a state budget of $29 billion and a deficit of $11 billion. New Jersey has among the highest property taxes in the nation yet the union wants more tax hikes. Christie says the union argument "you are hurting the children" is an old, long worn out song. I agree. Moreover, all Christie is asking the union to do is accept a 1 year salary freeze and contribute 1.5% to their benefits (about $750 dollars a year for a $50,000 teacher). Christie notes that Compulsory Teachers' Union dues are $730 a year. If the union wanted to do something for the kids, and the teachers, it could suspend those.
• Check Out The Massive Firesale Being Held By Bankrupt States.
  

zerohedge:

• Jeffrey Lacker Says The Fed Will Not Erode The Real Value Of Sovereign Debt Through Inflation.

Washington Examiner:

• Will Obama Create the Post Office of Health Care?

Arizona Republic:

• Arizona House Passes Wide-Ranging Immigration Bill. The Arizona House of Representatives has passed a wide-ranging bill that would put the state at the forefront of state control of immigration policy. Senate Bill 1070, among other things, makes it a crime to be in the country illegally and bars what its proponents call "sanctuary city" policies. It passed on a 35-21 vote, along party lines. All 35 Republicans supported the bill; all the Democrats present voted "no." Four Democrats were absent. The vote caps a hotly debated path through the Legislature and puts Arizona on the verge of having some of the toughest immigration laws in the nation.

Rasmussen Reports:

• Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 45%, Democrats 36%. For the second straight week, Republican candidates hold a nine-point lead over Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

Politico:

• Harry Reid Punts on Immigration. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) backed away from a major push on immigration reform in the coming weeks, amid concerns that the issue may be too volatile for an election year agenda already packed with ambitious legislative plans. The announcement came in the face of earlier indications from third-ranking Democrat Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) that immigration could get done soon. Reid told thousands of activists during a rally in Las Vegas over the weekend that the Senate would act on immigration reform “now,” raising expectations among his Latino base that Congress would suddenly take up the politically charged issue. But asked about the bill’s status Tuesday, Reid backed away from the pledge to act on it immediately. “We have a lot of work to do,” Reid said. “We won't get to immigration reform this work period. We won't get to the Supreme Court justice this weekend. We have lots of things to do and I've spent most of the caucus today [discussing with my members] the things we have to do and how we're going to do them.” The current seven-week work period ends right before Memorial Day, but others don’t think there’s a chance the bill will get done in the months leading up to Election Day.
• Blanche Lincoln Wall Street Bill Tacks Left. A new proposal by Senate Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Blanche Lincoln would require sweeping changes to the $450 trillion derivatives market, including forcing big banks to spin off “swaps desks” that handle the complex financial instruments — a more aggressive approach than either the White House or other congressional committees have advocated so far, according to the Arkansas Democrat and her aides. Lincoln’s plan is likely to burnish her standing with progressive groups inside the Democratic Party ahead of her May 18 Senate primary, where she is facing a challenger from the left. Lincoln drew fire from liberals in her party for opposing the public health insurance option in the recent health care reform bill.

Institutional Investor:

• CFTC Poised to Investigate Naked Credit Default Swaps. Gary Gensler is hinting at a possible overhaul of U.S. bankruptcy rules. The swap agreements enable investors to buy insurance against events such as bankruptcy and default, and can pay off big time if the company or country in question goes under. What’s come under increasing scrutiny of late are the motivations of the so-called naked CDS participants — those with no economic stake in the underlying asset. Are they building positions to benefit from a company’s demise? Gensler seems poised to investigate the impact of CDS holders who are in a position to benefit when a company defaults because they hold CDS that exceed actual credit protection.

USA Today:

• More Homeowners Keep Up With Their Mortgage. The share of homeowners behind on their mortgages fell in the first quarter, the first drop in four years and a possible sign that the foreclosure crisis has peaked. The portion of mortgages that were delinquent 30 days or more fell to 6.57% in the first quarter from 6.60% in the last three months of 2009, according to Equifax and Moody's Economy.com. That's a drop of about 16,630 delinquent loans and, while modest, it is the first decline in the delinquency rate since early 2006.
• Gannett Joins Deal to Broadcast TV Shows to Mobile Devices. The national effort to bring broadcast TV to wireless phones and devices got a boost on Tuesday: Nine of the largest owners of television stations – including Gannett, parent of USA TODAY — teamed up with NBC, Fox, and ION Television to send news, entertainment, sports, and print content to mobile devices. The stations, which collectively reach 150 million people, will use their broadcast airwaves – as opposed to the Internet – to transmit shows from the national networks as well as locally produced news and programming. They also may carry cable channels such as CNBC and Fox News, Gannett Broadcasting President David Lougee says.

Reuters:

• Republican in NY Governor's Race Gets Bomb Threat. The campaign headquarters of a Republican contender in the New York governor's race received a bomb threat on Tuesday from a self-proclaimed black militant group, one day after racially charged e-mails sent by the candidate surfaced in the media.
• TSMC Sees Global Chip Sales Up 22% in 2010. Top contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co said it expects global sales of semiconductors to rise 22 percent this year and 7 percent next amid a recovery from last year's slump.
• Linear Technology(LLTC) Q3 Tops Street, Upbeat on Q4. Linear Technology Corp's third-quarter results beat market estimates, helped by strong bookings, and the chipmaker said it expects strong sales growth in the fourth quarter, sending its shares up 4 percent in extended trade.
• Kulicke & Soffa(KLIC) Q2 Revenue Tops Street; Shares Surge. Chip-assembly equipment maker Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc (KLIC.O) posted a stronger-than-expected second-quarter revenue and forecast third-quarter revenue above market estimates, sending its shares soaring 17 percent in extended trading.
• China Says Won't Act Under Pressure on Currency. China will not act under outside pressure to revalue its yuan currency and does not believe the world's economic problems are tied to its exchange rates, Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said on Tuesday.

Financial Times:

• IMF Adds to Big Bank Surcharge Call. The International Monetary Fund yesterday urged US and European regulators to consider imposing higher bespoke capital requirements on "systemically important" banks deemed "too big to fail". The discussion of capital surcharges for big banks will prove controversial on Wall Street and in London, where bankers have argued that large institutions should not be penalised by regulators because of their size.

Telegraph:

• Funds Shun Europe as 'No-Go Zone' after Greek Crisis. Global fund managers have changed their views of the euro area dramatically since the Greek crisis erupted last year and exposed the deep structural flaws in monetary union. "Europe has become a no-go zone," said Patrik Schowitz, equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "As recently as five months ago investors regarded Europe as the most attractive play on global economic recovery". The bank's monthly survey of funds found that a net 18pc are underweight stocks in Europe.
  

Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:

• Reiterated Buy on (INTC), boosted estimates, raised target to $31, Top Picks Live list.

Thomas Weisel:

• Rated (SLXP) Overweight, target $52.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.5 +.5 basis point.
• S&P 500 futures +.14%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.35%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (JPM)/.64
• (YUM)/.53
• (LSTR)/.32
• (JBHT)/.27
• (ADTN)/.27
• (PGR)/.37

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Consumer Price Index for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in February.
• The CPI Ex Food & Energy for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in February.
• Advance Retail Sales for March are estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +.3% gain in February.
• Retail Sales Less Autos for March are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in February.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for February are estimated to rise +.4% versus unch. in January.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,300,000 barrels versus a +1,976,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to fall by -1,000,000 barrels versus a -2,498,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to rise by +1,000,000 barrels versus a +1,074,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.15% versus a +1.89% gain the prior week.

2:00 pm EST

• The Fed's Beige Book.

Upcoming Splits

• (AAN) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Pianalto speaking, Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Sack speaking, Bloomberg Global Confidence Index and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.