Indices
- S&P 500 1,199.73 +.04%
- DJIA 11,203.55 +.10%
- NASDAQ 2,518.12 unch.
- Russell 2000 724.36 +.71%
- Wilshire 5000 12,470.52 +.18%
- Russell 1000 Growth 550.29 +.41%
- Russell 1000 Value 605.51 -.13%
- Morgan Stanley Consumer 720.43 -.04%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 955.45 +.35%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 635.67 +1.14%
- Transports 4,873.44 +1.37%
- Utilities 398.0 -.76%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 46.47 -.48%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,013.72 -1.09%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 861.27 -.97%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 767.98 +1.98%
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +106,092 -2.55%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +149 +101
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 47.0 +9.3%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +171,991 +19.35%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,399,774 -5.81%
- Total Put/Call .65 -32.99%
- OEX Put/Call .84 -36.84%
- ISE Sentiment 126.0 +50.0%
- NYSE Arms 1.0 -43.82%
- Volatility(VIX) 18.04 -12.47%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.73% -17.98%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.87 -5.94%
- Smart Money Flow Index 9,446.28 -1.16%
- Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.798 Trillion -.1%
- AAII % Bulls 40.0 -30.51%
- AAII % Bears 32.50 +14.08%
- CRB Index 298.89 -1.55%
- Crude Oil 81.98 -3.77%
- Reformulated Gasoline 219.60 -.75%
- Natural Gas 4.16 +9.35%
- Heating Oil 227.44 -3.75%
- Gold 1,352.30 -1.16%
- Bloomberg Base Metals 230.32 -6.16%
- Copper 384.25 -1.51%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 329.67 USD/Ton +3.34%
- China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,370 Yuan/Ton -.32%
- S&P GSCI Agriculture 434.63 -3.0%
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 124.30 +.08%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index +29.70 -6.3 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 55.2% chance of no change, 44.8% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/14
- US Dollar Index 78.50 +.54%
- Yield Curve 236.0 +8 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.87% +8 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.297 Trillion +.08%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.54 -3.16%
- Illinois Municipal Credit Default Swap 291.0 +4.01%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 163.0 -4.3%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13% +4 basis points
- TED Spread 15.0 -1 basis point
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 91.02 -1.60%
- Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 105.99 -1.95%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 218.58 +3.51%
- CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 260.0 unch.
- M1 Money Supply $1.880 Trillion +5.13%
- Business Loans 607.10 -.03%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 443,000 -.9%
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.4% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.39% +22 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 713.60 -14.36%
- ABC Consumer Confidence -47 -1 point
- Weekly Retail Sales +2.70% +10 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $2.88/gallon unch.
- U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 9.0% below normal
- Baltic Dry Index 2,164 -8.54%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 45.0 +5.88%
- Rail Freight Carloads 232,888 +.78%
- Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 91.0 -4.62%
- Small-Cap Growth +1.15%
- Large-Cap Value -.13%
- Disk Drives +4.43%
- Coal +3.68%
- Oil Tankers +3.41%
- Oil Service +3.23%
- Airlines +1.82%
- Alt Energy -1.97%
- REITs -2.0%
- Gold -2.08%
- Banks -2.25%
- Homebuilders -3.25%
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day Change
1 comment:
Two weeks of decline in West Texas Intermediate Crude, $WTIC, from November 8, 2010 price of 87.29 to Friday November 19, 2010 to 81.98 suggest that a debt deflationary bear market is underway in the oil market. For the last two weeks, the oil market has seen deflation, not inflation. With currency prices falling world wide, the top is in for oil. Support levels are lower at 82, 80 and 78.
The currency traders are conducting a global currency war. Peak currency wealth was achieved on November 5, 2010, as the Optimized Currency ETN, ICI, has fallen lower since has fallen lower since that time, as have all of the currencies listed below.
The chart of the small cap value shares relative to the small cap growth shares, RZV:RZG Daily, shows a November 19, 2010 close at 0.7879, down from November 4, 2010 high of 0.8047, providing evidence that debt deflationary is underway. Other evidence that debt deflation is underway is the rise in the S&P Mid Term Futures Volatility, VXZ, and the fall in Junk Bonds, JNK.
Global Debt Deflation commenced on April 26, 2010, when the value shares failed to outperform the growth shares, this was when the European Sovereign Debt Crisis started to emerge. It recommenced November 5, 2010 when the bond vigilantes sustained the Interest rate on the US Government Bond, $TYX, above 4%, and as the currency traders sold the major currencies, DBV, and emerging market currencies, CEW, causing the US Dollar, $USD, to rise.
Since November 5, 2010, debt deflation has come to commodities, DBC.
Since November 5, 2010 debt deflation has come to bonds, BND. Peak credit was achieved November 4, 2010.
And also, debt deflation has come to world stocks, ACWI, the S&P, SPY, the Russell 2000, IWM, the New York Composite, NYC. Peak stock wealth has been achieved November 4, 2010.
The end of profiting from investing long in the energy service companies, OIH, and Exxon Mobil, XOM, is done and over. The chart of the energy service companies shows a euphoric and manic, end-of-rally burst up.
The end of credit has commenced; this being seen in the fall of subprime automobile lender Nicholas Financial, NICK, Mastercard, MA, and American Express, AXP.
Those who went short the 200% ETF on November 5, 2010 have profited:
Oil, UCO + 13%
India, INDL + 19%
Real Estate, URE + 13%
Asia Excluding Japan, UXJ + 11%
Brazil, UBR + 10%
Emerging Markets, EET + 8%
Europe, UPV + 7%
Russell 2000, URTY + 6%
Personally, I'm invested in gold, as I believe a global financial system collapse is coming and hard assets like gold and silver will be in demand.
Post a Comment