Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Thursday Watch


Evening Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • Japan's Economy Shrinks More Than Forecast. Japan’s economy shrank more than estimated in the first quarter after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami disrupted production and prompted consumers to cut back spending, sending the nation to its third recession in a decade. Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 3.7 percent in the three months through March, following a revised 3 percent drop in the previous quarter, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.9 percent drop.
  • Lagarde May Stake Claims as First Female IMF Chief. France may have to rely on Christine Lagarde’s track record as a euro crisis fighter if she’s to become the International Monetary Fund’s first female chief after the downfall of her compatriot Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Lagarde, 55, has the negotiating skills and an understanding of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis needed for the post, say analysts including Charles Grant at the Centre for European Reform. IMF shareholders will assess if those qualities are enough to allow France to keep the job for itself after securing four out of the 10 managing directors since 1946.
  • Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Futures Soar as U.S. Planting Delays Threaten Yields. Corn futures rose the most in six weeks, wheat had the biggest gain in two months, and soybean and rice prices surged as adverse weather from North Dakota to Louisiana to Europe threatened to erode crop production. In the U.S., corn planting was 63 percent complete as of May 15, down from the 75 percent average in the past five years, as soggy fields hindered fieldwork, mostly east of the Mississippi River and in northern states, government data show. Spring-wheat, soybean and rice sowing also were behind the pace of recent years. The Ohio Valley and North Dakota will see more rain this week, AccuWeather Inc. said. Corn futures for July delivery climbed 29.5 cents, or 4.1 percent, to settle at $7.4975 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. Earlier, the price rose by the exchange limit of 30 cents. The grain has more than doubled in the past year on tightening global supplies and increasing demand from ethanol producers and livestock farmers. Wheat futures for July delivery surged 53 cents, or 6.9 percent, to $8.17 a bushel in Chicago, the biggest jump since March 17. The price has climbed 75 percent in the past year as drought slashed crops in Russia and threatened production in the U.S. Great Plains. Wheat futures in Minneapolis rose 6.4 percent, and prices in Paris gained 4.6 percent. Soybean futures for July delivery rose 38.5 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $13.795 a bushel on the CBOT, the biggest gain this month. The oilseed has climbed 47 percent in the past 12 months.
  • Baidu(BIDU) Accused of Aiding Chinese Censorship. Baidu Inc., the owner of China’s most popular search engine, was sued by eight Chinese residents of New York who say the company helps the Chinese government censor political expression in violation of the U.S. Constitution. The plaintiffs’ “writings, publications and coverage of pro-democracy events has been censored and banned from any search performed on the Baidu.com Inc. search engine,” they said in a complaint filed today in Manhattan federal court. China “openly and routinely uses censorship of political speech and information on the Internet to silence criticism of the government in China and the ruling Chinese Communist Party,” the plaintiffs allege in their complaint. The plaintiffs are also charging that Baidu and China violated New York State civil rights laws. They are demanding $16 million in damages from Baidu and the Chinese government, which is also a defendant. “China will be required to answer the complaint or there will be a default judgment against them,” Stephen Preziosi, the New York-based lawyer representing the plaintiffs, said in a telephone interview.
  • Longtop Short-Sellers Show Mistrust Undermines China IPO Market. The blog post accusing Longtop Financial Technologies Ltd. (LFT) of fraud appeared April 26. The Hong Kong-based maker of financial software, whose 2007 initial public offering was underwritten by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) and which had 11 analyst “buy” ratings, was no match for investor skepticism. Shares slumped 31 percent in a two-day rout that left them at the lowest since March 2009. Yesterday, a day after Nasdaq trading was suspended, the company announced it wouldn’t file financial statements on May 23 as previously planned. It didn’t set a new date.
  • IMF Chief Strauss-Kahn Seeks Court Review of Bail Denial.
  • Glencore IPO to Raise $10 Billion as BlackRock(BLK), Aabar Defy Commodity Rout. Glencore International Plc will start trading in London today after selling $10 billion of stock in an initial public offering that coincided with the worst rout in commodities in two years.
Wall Street Journal:
  • States May Turn to Munis to Repay Unemployment Loans. Some states already beset with budget woes may turn to the municipal-bond market in coming months to help them fix yet another problem: shoring up their underfunded unemployment-benefits programs.
  • Jewish Donors Warn Obama on Israel. Jewish donors and fund-raisers are warning the Obama re-election campaign that the president is at risk of losing financial support because of concerns about his handling of Israel. Some Jewish donors say President Barack Obama has pushed Israeli leaders too hard to halt construction of housing settlements in disputed territory, a longstanding element of U.S. policy. Some also worry that Mr. Obama is putting more pressure on the Israelis than the Palestinians to enter peace negotiations, and that the president has allowed relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to fray. One top Democratic fund-raiser, Miami developer Michael Adler, said he urged Obama campaign manager Jim Messina to be "extremely proactive" in countering the perception in the Jewish community that Mr. Obama is too critical of Israel.
  • Oystermen Scrape Bottom. Mississippi Flooding Threatens Louisiana Industry Reeling From 2010 Oil Spill.
  • Republican Plan to Speed Up Oil Drilling Is Defeated in Senate. For the second time in as many days, the U.S. Senate defeated an energy plan that attempted to combat skyrocketing gasoline prices as Democrats and Republicans continue their fight over energy policy.
MarketWatch:
  • Obama to Offer Debt Relief in Mideast Speech. President Barack Obama will offer debt relief and other aid to Egypt in a major speech about the Middle East on Thursday, senior U.S. officials said. Obama will outline a plan to bolster economic development in Egypt — as well as the region in general — in the wake of the political uprisings that swept through the area earlier this year. Obama will offer debt relief of about $1 billion over two to three years to Egypt, as well as U.S. government loan guarantees worth an extra $1 billion to finance infrastructure and create jobs, senior Obama administration officials told reporters Wednesday.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
IBD:
CNNMoney:
NY Times:
OpenSecrets.org:
USA Today:
Financial Times:
  • Levin in 'Real Hope' of Fresh Goldman(GS) Probe. Carl Levin, chairman of the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, said there's "real hope" law enforcement authorities would follow up his panel's report, which accused Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS) of misleading clients, citing an interview with Levin.
  • Greek Debt Talks Cast Doubt Over Sovereign CDS. In one sense, Greece may be about to get its revenge on the speculators blamed by politicians for exacerbating the country’s debt crisis. If eurozone leaders press ahead with plans to extend Greek bond maturities in a “soft” or voluntary debt restructuring, then traders in credit default swaps could be one of the main casualties.
Telegraph:Link
  • IMF Tells Greece to Stop Dragging Its Heels Over Reform. The International Monetary Fund has told Greece to step up its efforts to sort out its finances in the most stern warning yet from the bailed-out nation's rescuer. The Washington-based lender is worried the country will not meet the deficit-cutting targets agreed as part of its €110bn (£97bn) IMF/EU aid package. "The view that seems to be taking hold is that the government programme is not working," said Poul Thomsen, head of the IMF mission currently in Greece to measure the country's progress towards tax and spending goals. "The programme will not remain on track without a determined re-invigoration of structural reforms in the coming months," he told an Athens conference. "Unless we see this invigoration, I think the programme will run off track."
21st Century Business Herald:
  • China should raise deposit rate to eliminate negative real interest rates, citing central bank adviser Li Daokui.
Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:
  • Reiterated Buy on (DE), target $105.
  • Reiterated Buy on (ANF), target $86.
CSFB:
  • Reiterated Outperform on (DE), target $111.
Janney Montgomery:
  • Rated (ARUN) Buy, target $38.
  • Rated (BRCD) Buy, target $8.
  • Rated (JNPR) Buy, target $48.
  • Rated (EMC) Buy, target $34.
  • Rated (RVBD) Buy, target $45.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.50 -1.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 114.50 -1.0 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures +.09%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (PLCE)/1.05
  • (DLTR)/.75
  • (TDW)/.51
  • (FLO)/.46
  • (SSI)/-.01
  • (SHLD)/-1.12
  • (WSM)/.28
  • (BKE)/.73
  • (TTC)/1.61
  • (GME)/.54
  • (ROST)/1.48
  • (INTU)/2.28
  • (GPS)/.39
  • (ZUMZ)/.02
  • (ARUN)/.15
  • (ADSK)/.37
  • (CRM)/.27
  • (ARO)/.20
  • (FL)/.44
  • (RRGB)/.24
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 420K versus 434K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3728K versus 3756K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Existing Home Sales for April are estimated to rise to 5.2M versus 5.1M in March.
  • Leading Indicators for April are estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.4% gain in March.
  • Philly Fed for May is estimated to rise to 20.0 versus 18.5 in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • (ALXN) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Dudley speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, 1Q Mortgage Delinquencies/Foreclosures, 10-Year TIPS Auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for May, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Morgan Stanley Refining Conference, Piper Jaffray Clean Tech Conference, BofA Merrill Transport Conference, (STM) analysts day, (LRG) investor breakfast, (HCN) investor day, (GFIG) investor day, (WY) investor meeting and the (IRBT) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

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