Friday, February 03, 2012

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:
  • Greece Talks Enter 'Final Phase' on Second Bailout to Secure Place in Euro. Greece may conclude a seven-month effort to wrap up its second bailout in the coming days with the country’s stability hanging in the balance. A plan that’s been in the works since July may emerge from parallel talks among caretaker Prime Minister Lucas Papademos’s coalition members; international monitors and Greek officials; and Greece’s government and its creditors, as well as tussles involving European central bankers and political leaders. “We are in the final phase of this very critical process to shape a new financing program for Greece and to complete the loan agreement which will lighten the burden of public debt and ensure funding for years to come,” Papademos said in a statement today in Athens. The plan will help “restore fiscal stability, improve competitiveness, revive the economy and increase employment.” The rescue blueprint includes a loss of more than 70 percent for bondholders in a voluntary debt exchange and loans likely to exceed the 130 billion euros ($171 billion) now on the table. Open questions involve how much more aid Greece needs, how much more austerity is required, and how to involve the European Central Bank in the debt swap.
  • ECB Considers Using Bond Holdings for Greece. The European Central Bank is considering using its bond holdings to bolster Greece’s next rescue program and support efforts to contain the sovereign debt crisis, three euro-region officials said. Under one plan, the ECB could sell its Greek bonds to the European Financial Stability Facility at the price it paid for them rather than accept a loss along with private creditors, two of the people said. The EFSF is against that proposal because it may stretch its capacity, the officials said. Another plan is for euro-area central banks to give up profits or take losses on Greek bonds in their investment portfolios. Several options are under informal consideration and none have gained traction so far, two of the officials said. Spokespeople for the ECB and the EFSF declined to comment.
  • Payrolls Jump Casts Doubt on Fed Rate Pledge. The U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly fell in January to the lowest in three years as payrolls climbed more than forecast, casting doubt on the Federal Reserve’s plan to keep interest rates low until late 2014. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest since February 2009, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The 243,000 increase in jobs was the biggest in nine months and exceeded the most optimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Service industries grew by the most in a year, according to a separate report. The median projection in the Bloomberg survey called for payrolls to rise by 140,000. Estimates of the 89 economists ranged from increases of 95,000 to 225,000. Revisions added a total of 60,000 jobs to payrolls in November and December. Sustained increases of around 200,000 jobs a month are needed to bring the unemployment rate down one percentage point over a year, according to Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. The unemployment rate, derived from a separate survey of households, was forecast to stay at 8.5 percent, according to the survey median. The drop in the jobless rate reflected a 381,000 decrease in unemployment at the same time 250,000 Americans entered the labor force. The so-called underemployment rate -- which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking -- decreased to 15.1 percent from 15.2 percent. The number of unemployed Americans dropped to 12.8 million, the lowest since January 2009, from 13.1 million in December. Still, the number of those who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more -- a source of concern for the Fed -- was little changed at 5.52 million and accounted for almost 43 percent of the total.
  • Falcone's Harbinger Hedge Fund Lost 47% in '11. Phil Falcone’s Harbinger Capital Partners LLC lost 47 percent for investors in his main hedge fund last year as he was forced to slash the value of his troubled wireless venture by more than half, according to a person familiar with the results.
  • Lawyers Rank Third on Obama Donor List Even With Lobbying Ties. President Barack Obama’s top sources of campaign funds include employees at law firms that made $20 million last year trying to influence Washington. Obama, who has raised $128 million toward his re-election, doesn’t accept contributions from registered lobbyists, a policy that doesn’t apply to others who work in their firms. The restriction hasn’t affected his fundraising, as 6 of the president’s 20 biggest sources of money were law firms that lobby for companies such as Google Inc. (GOOG), AT&T Inc. (T), and MasterCard Inc. (MA), and he received more money from lawyers and others at law firms than any other presidential candidate last year, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington-based group that tracks political giving. “Basically, they’re not taking money from the messenger boys but they are taking money from the people sending the message,” said Bill Allison, editorial director at the Sunlight Foundation, a Washington-based advocacy group.
  • BofA(BAC) JPM Chase(JPM) Sued by New York Over MERS. Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co.(WFC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. were sued by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman over the creation and use of a mortgage database. The banks’ use of the database, known as MERS, has led to deceptive and fraudulent foreclosure filings in New York state and federal courts, Schneiderman said in a statement today.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Rosler Opposes ECB Write-Down on Greece. A German cabinet minister rejected demands to involve the European Central Bank directly in efforts to reduce Greece's debt as international pressure is growing on the ECB to make a significant contribution to restructuring Athens' debt by accepting a haircut on its huge cache of Greek bonds. "This is not currently an issue for us," said German Economy Minister Philipp Rösler in an exclusive interview with Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, when asked whether the ECB should be involved in Greece's debt restructuring.
  • Copper Jumps on Jobs Data. The most-actively traded contract, for March delivery, was recently up 9.05 cents, or 2.4%, at $3.8715 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Copper touched an intraday high of $3.8740, but is still off the year's high of $3.9390 set Jan. 27.
Barron's:
CNBC.com:
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
New York Times:
  • SEC Consistently Treats Biggest Banks With Light Hand. Even as the Securities and Exchange Commission has stepped up its investigations of Wall Street in the last decade, the agency has repeatedly allowed the biggest firms to avoid punishments specifically meant to apply to fraud cases.
Washington Post:

Reuters:

  • Goldman(GS) to Face Mortgage Debt Class-Action Lawsuit. Goldman Sachs Group Inc was ordered by a federal judge to face a securities class-action lawsuit accusing it of defrauding investors about a 2006 offering of securities backed by risky mortgage loans from a now-defunct lender. U.S. District Judge Harold Baer in Manhattan certified a class-action lawsuit by investors led by the Public Employees' Retirement System of Mississippi.
Financial Times:

Financial Times Deutschland:

  • Euro-area central banks may be prepared to take losses on the Greek bonds they hold that aren't part of the European Central Bank's asset-purchase program, citing "euro sources".

China Economic Times:

  • China should pay attention to the risk that some local governments may default on their debt, Meng Chun, researcher at the State Council's Development Research Center wrote today.
  • China's increase in energy demand may slow this year as economic growth slows, Deng Yusong, a researcher at the State Council's Development Research Center wrote today. Growth of exports, real estate investment and manufacturing investment may decline "substantially" this year from 2011, Deng writes.

1 comment:

theyenguy said...

The old economy of capitalism was based upon the Milton Friedman Free To Choose script of floating currencies for growth, jobs, and profit. Fears of debt contagion, most likely from a Greek default will resurface soon, causing derisking out of stocks, and deleveraging out of commodities. Through creative destruction, leaders’ framework agreements will provide diktat for regional security and stability.

The collapse of Greece, GREK, and the National Bank of Greece, NBG, together with the bursting of the global government fiance bubble bubble, BWX, will be the genesis that transforms democracy into diktat.

Greece is an insolvent nation, and its sovereign insolvency, poses global systemic risk. Greece has lost its debt sovereignty, and it cannot handle any sovereign debt burden, it can be assured that there will be no sovereign funding. The only funding it might receive is seigniorage aid from the EU ECB and IMF Troika. Greece is a fiscally instable nation, which has no competitiveness, and its economy can not be revived, it can expect to have massive unemployment like that of Egypt.

Greece is going to default. Greece is the poster nation for European Socialism that came via the Eurozone debt trade, that is the sovereign credit, and bank lending credit experience of the last twelve years, that provided for the right to state employment to be written into the constitution, high labor rates, a lack of exports, the failure of infrastructure improvement at Hellenic Railroads, and an excessive trade imbalance with Germany.

There are some options for Greece. It may be kicked out of the EU, as an example of being a millstone around the Germany. Or Germany goes back to the D-Mark and form a Nordic Union with Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and other industrialized nation, not likely. Or Greece becomes ground zero for more technocratic government, featuring structural reforms and austerity, and becomes part of a EU Super State, that is a Federal Union, featuring a Fiscal Union, and the ECB or Bundesbank chartered as the Euro’s Bank, very possible.

When Greece defaults, banks and the ECB will have to take losses, and credit default swaps will have to be paid. This will be the genesis for Financial Armageddon, that is a credit bust and global financial breakdown.

Fate is operating to establish true socialism, that is totalitarian collectivism; this will rise to terminate all forms of economic and political life. The sovereign debt to GDP ratio is going to plummet fast, causing quick and fast deleveraging out of stocks and bonds, as the seigniorage, that is the moneyness, that came via national sovereignty, fails. The seigniorage of capitalism will be replaced by the seigniorage of diktat.