Thursday, May 02, 2013

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • U.K. Steps Up Tax Crackdown With Caribbean Accord. The U.K. signed agreements with territories including Anguilla, Bermuda and the British Virgin Islands in the latest effort to fight tax evasion as the government struggles to contain its borrowing. All the British overseas territories with financial centers signed up to the government’s effort, “marking a turning point in the fight against tax evasion and illicit finance,” the Treasury said in a statement in London today. “This represents a significant step forward in tackling illicit finance and sets the global standard in the fight against tax evasion,” Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said in the statement. “I now hope others follow these governments’ lead and enter into similar commitments to this new level of transparency, removing the hiding places for those who seek to evade tax and hide their assets.”
  • GM(GM) Pulls Chevrolet Ad Including Song Decried as Racist. General Motors Co. (GM), seeking to boost China sales 75 percent by 2015, apologized for a Chevrolet ad that included a song referring to “the land of Fu Manchu” where all of the girls sing “ching, ching, chop-suey,” which one Hong Kong newspaper called racist. “Our intent was not to offend anyone and we’re deeply sorry if anyone was offended,” Ryndee Carney, a Detroit-based GM spokeswoman, said yesterday in a telephone interview. “We’re reviewing our advertising approval processes to make sure this doesn’t happen again.” GM wants to expand sales in China and plans to spend $11 billion through 2016 on new plants and products in the country
  • China Cyberspies Outwit U.S. Stealing Defense Secrets. Among defense contractors, QinetiQ North America (QQ/) is known for spy-world connections and an eye- popping product line. Its contributions to national security include secret satellites, drones, and software used by U.S. special forces in Afghanistan and the Middle East. Former CIA Director George Tenet was a director of the company from 2006 to 2008 and former Pentagon spy chief Stephen Cambone heads a major division. Its U.K. parent was created as a spinoff of a government weapons laboratory that inspired Q’s lab in Ian Fleming’s James Bond thrillers, a connection QinetiQ (pronounced kin-EH-tic) still touts. QinetiQ’s espionage expertise didn’t keep Chinese cyber- spies from outwitting the company. In a three-year operation, hackers linked to China’s military infiltrated QinetiQ’s computers and compromised most if not all of the company’s research.
  • Asian Stocks Fall After U.S. Payroll Growth Slows. Asian stocks fell for a second day after weaker growth in U.S. payrolls and manufacturing added to evidence of a slowdown in the world’s largest economy and as the yen rose, curbing the earnings outlook for Japanese exporters. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s largest mining company, lost 1 percent, leading raw-materials shares lower as metals prices declined. Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest carmaker, slid 1.4 percent. 
  • China Rebar Drops to Five-Month Low on Iron Price, Mill Supplies. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai fell to the lowest level in almost five months as a decline in the price of iron ore and consistently high output from local mills pressured the market. The contract for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lost as much as 1.9 percent to 3,533 yuan ($574) a metric ton today, the cheapest since Dec. 3, and was at 3,551 yuan at 10:11 a.m. local time. Futures, which reopened after a three-day holiday, lost 6.2 percent in the previous two weeks. “The lower iron ore price is pressuring the market, while Chinese mills’ output remained at a high level,” Li Meng, analyst at Huatai Changcheng Futures Co., said by phone from Shanghai today. The average spot price for rebar was up 0.2 percent at 3,574 yuan a ton on April 26, according to the Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. 
  • Rubber Drops to One-Week Low as U.S. Data Raise Demand Concerns. Rubber declined to the lowest level in more than a week as Japan’s currency advanced, cutting the appeal of the yen-denominated futures, and reports showed a slower pace of growth in U.S. manufacturing and payrolls. The contract for October delivery lost as much as 3.4 percent to 250.8 yen a kilogram ($2,578 a metric ton), the lowest most-active price since April 24. Futures traded at 253.7 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange at 10:54 a.m., extending this year’s losses to 16 percent.
  • Boston Bomb Trail Leads Into Heart of Putin’s Own War on Terror. Six blocks from the Caspian Sea, on Kotrova Street in central Makhachkala, sits a mosque being watched by undercover Russian agents charged with preventing acts of terror. As worshipers spill out into the streets, American investigators are watching now, too, as they try to reconstruct the events that led to the most high-profile terrorist assault in the U.S. since Sept. 11, 2001.
  • Lehman Sues Intel(INTC) Alleging Breach of $1 Billion Swap Deal. Bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. sued Intel Corp. (INTC), alleging the world’s largest semiconductor maker breached a $1 billion swap agreement. Under a 2008 accord, Intel gave $1 billion to Lehman’s over-the-counter derivatives unit in August of that year in exchange for 50 million shares of its stock, to be delivered on September 29, 2008, according to a complaint filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Mining Woes Snag Financial Firms. Far from any mine shaft, the legions of bankers, consultants and lawyers who benefited from a decadelong commodities boom are now preparing to retrench as the market weakens. Global mining capitals such as Toronto, Johannesburg and London all flourished amid lofty prices in recent years for everything from gold and copper to potash. Mining companies have tended to flock to a handful of cities to list their shares, set up headquarters and raise cash. But over the past year, the sector has been hit by a triple whammy of falling prices, still-rising costs and waning investor interest. Most mined commodities have fallen sharply since their 2011 highs. Gold is 23% off its highs, and copper closed at an 18-month low Wednesday. Gold has fallen 14% since the start of this year to $1,446 a troy ounce. As a result, some of the world's biggest miners are slashing outlays, shedding assets they bought at the top of the market just a few years ago, and shaking up management teams that spearheaded several years' of frenetic deal making and fundraising. That is having a spillover effect on the industries servicing miners. Bankers and brokers involved in the sector are starting to see revenue dry up, and some are already shedding staff
  • Japan's Nuclear Plan Unsettles U.S. Japan is preparing to start up a massive nuclear-fuel reprocessing plant over the objections of the Obama administration, which fears the move may stoke a broader race for nuclear technologies and even weapons in North Asia and the Middle East. The Rokkasho reprocessing facility, based in Japan's northern Aomori prefecture, is capable of producing nine tons of weapons-usable plutonium annually, said Japanese officials and nuclear-industry experts, enough to build as many as 2,000 bombs, although Japanese officials say their program is civilian.
  • Clubby London Trading Scene Fostered Libor Rate-Fixing Scandal. Neil Danziger's trades for Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC generated rich commissions for the brokers who handled them. In return, brokers at London's Tullett Prebon took Mr. Danziger to London strip clubs and spent long weekends with him in Las Vegas, according to people familiar with the relationship. Brokers at R.P. Martin Holdings Ltd., another London firm, gave him early access to lucrative trades, these people say.
Fox News:
  • North Korea reportedly sentences detained American to hard labor. North Korea says an American detained for nearly six months has been sentenced to 15 years of "compulsory labor" for crimes against the state. Pyongyang state media said Thursday that the trial took place Tuesday but provided no other new details in announcing Kenneth Bae's sentencing. Bae was tried in the Supreme Court on charges of plotting to overthrow the government. He could've faced the death penalty. The case further complicates already fraught relations between Pyongyang and Washington following weeks of heightened rhetoric and tensions.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC: 
  • China April HSBC PMI Eases to 50.4 on Weak Demand. China's factory-sector growth eased in April as new export orders fell for the first time this year, a private survey showed on Thursday, suggesting the euro zone recession and sluggish U.S. demand may be reining in China's economic recovery. The final HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 50.4 in April from March's 51.6 and was largely in line with a flash reading last week of 50.5. Fifty divides expansion from contraction on a monthly basis. China's official PMI on Wednesday painted a similar picture, falling to 50.6 in April from an 11-month high of 50.9 in March as new export orders fell. "The slower growth of manufacturing activity in April confirmed a fragile growth recovery of the Chinese economy as external demand deteriorated and renewed destocking pressures built up," said Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC. A sub-index for new export orders dipped to 48.4, the first time it has retreated below 50 this year and the lowest level since last October, reinforcing concerns about the strength of the global economy.
  • Visa(V) Earnings Beat, Supported by Strong Growth. Visa said its net income slipped nearly 2 percent in the fiscal second quarter from a year earlier, when the company benefited from an adjustment to its income tax provision. But the payments-processing company reported growth in service and data processing revenue, as well as international transactions.
  • Facebook(FB) Revenue Beats, but Earnings Miss. Facebook posted revenue that surpassed Wall Street forecasts on Wednesday, as the company's mobile ad revenues continued to rise. After an initial pop, Facebook shares are slightly higher in extended hours trading.
  • US Presses China to Stop Growing Trade Secret Theft. The U.S. Trade Representative's office criticized China on Wednesday for failing to stop the growing theft of American trade secrets that are the lifeblood of U.S economic might, in the latest sign of Washington's frustration with the problem. "Not only are repeated thefts occurring inside China, but also outside of China for the benefit of Chinese entities," USTR said in its annual report on countries with the worst records of protecting U.S. intellectual property rights. "The United States strongly urges the Chinese Government take serious steps to put an end to these activities and to deter further activity by rigorously investigating and prosecuting thefts of trade secrets by both cyber and conventional means," the report said.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
CNN:
Pew Research Center:
Reuters:
  • Japan PM's "stealth" constitution plan raises civil rights fears. Shinzo Abe makes no secret of wanting to revise Japan's constitution, which was drafted by the United States after World War Two, to formalize the country's right to have a military - but critics say his plans go deeper and could return Japan to its socially conservative, authoritarian past. Sweeping changes proposed by Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a draft constitution would strike at the heart of the charter with an assault on basic civil rights that could muzzle the media, undermine gender equality and generally open the door to an authoritarian state, activists and scholars say. 
  • BOJ April 3-4 minutes: some members wary of risks of bold easing. Some members of the Bank of Japan's policy board expressed concerns that large-scale purchases of government debt could actually impair lending and disturb the functioning of financial markets, minutes of their April 3-4 meeting showed on Thursday. Members raising concerns about expanded easing voted for the change in policy, but their reservations could suggest that there are differing levels of enthusiasm about the central bank's overhaul of monetary policy. Some members also said the BOJ should allow for a range of six to eight years for the average maturity of government debt purchased, as this could lessen disruptions to financial markets.
  • EU gives support to Italy's Letta, cautions on debt. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said on Wednesday that the European Union supported efforts by new Italian prime minister Enrico Letta to grow Italy's economy, but public finances must be kept in order.
Telegraph: 
China Securities Journal:
  • Beijing April Used Home Transactions Plunge. Beijing's April used home transactions fell 48% year-on-year.
  • China Should Watch for Rising "Hidden" Bad Loans. China's non-performing loan rate could be underestimated by "a large measure" because of "hidden" bad loans, Zhang Monan, a researcher with the State Information Center, wrote today. Chinese banks' growth has slowed and their non-performing loan ratios have increased this year because of a downward momentum in the economy, Xhang wrote. The debt-to-equity ratio at Chinese non-financial companies is "excessively" high, he wrote. New off-balance-sheet financing in some banks exceeds on-the-books credit growth, he said. Bad loans cold increase when asset prices drop, Zhang wrote.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.0 -.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 87.0 +.75 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.12%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.25%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (EL)/.33
  • (IP)/.74
  • (ARG)/1.13
  • (BZH)/-.69
  • (MDC)/.25
  • (RGLD)/.39
  • (BDX)/1.35
  • (CAH)/.95
  • (ATK)/1.99
  • (HCA)/.82
  • (CME)/.73
  • (MWW)/.08
  • (MMC)/.69
  • (GM)/.54
  • (VMC)/-.35
  • (MGM)/-.10
  • (PCG)/.69
  • (CI)/1.44
  • (STRA)/1.46
  • (XEL)/.45
  • (ITT)/.42
  • (K)/1.02
  • (GILD)/.49
  • (MCHP)/.47
  • (LNKD)/.31
  • (OPEN)/.43
  • (FLR)/.96
  • (MHK)/.83
  • (AIG)/.88        
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Deficit for March is estimated at -$42.3B versus -$43.0B in February.
  • Preliminary 1Q Non-farm Productivity is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -1.9% decline in 4Q.
  • Preliminary 1Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +.7% versus a +4.6% gain in 4Q.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 345K versus 339K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 3030K versus 3000K prior.    
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI Manufacturing, ECB rate decision, ECB's Draghi speaking, China Non-Manufacturing PMI, Challenger Job Cuts report for April, RBC Consumer Outlook Index for May, Australian inflation data, ISM New York for April, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (DD) investor day and the (STRA) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

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