Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• U.S. May Tighten Travel Rules to Fight Omicron, CDC Head Says.  
• Chinese Banks Boost Short-Term Debt in Sign Lending to Pick Up.  
• Australia’s Economy Contracts by Less-Than-Expected 1.9%.
• EU's 'Global Gateway' Infrastructure Push Offers Counter to China's 'Belt and Road'. 
• U.S. Needs More Substantive Asia Economic Plan, Singapore Says.  
• Asian Stocks Mixed as Traders Weigh Powell’s Pivot: Markets Wrap.
• Hawkish Powell Is a Force Markets Haven’t Faced in Three Years.  
• Jerome Powell Ditches ‘Transitory’ Inflation Tag, Paves Way for Rate Hike.  
• Waves of Volatility Whipsaw Markets After Powell Tilt.
• Pfizer Seeks U.S. Clearance for Covid Boosters for Older Teens.
  
• Dr. Oz Announces Republican Bid for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania.  
• Sackler Family May Have ‘Abused’ Bankruptcy Process, Purdue Pharma Judge Says.
• Investors ‘Willing to Be Patient’ With Omicron, RBC Survey Shows.

Wall Street Journal:

• Decoding the Omicron Panic. Covid overkill is bad for everybody except the politicians.  
• Powell Sets Stage for Quicker End to Stimulus as Inflation Outlook Worsens.
• Bali Was Slammed With Tourists Before Covid. Now It’s Slammed Without.
• Theranos Founder Admits Regrets, Deflects Prosecutors.
• GlobalFoundries Says Revenue Rose 56% as Chip Shortage Continues.

Fox News:  

• CNN suspends Chris Cuomo after report exposes his secret work to defend disgraced ex-governor brother.
• Judge rules on Biden's nationwide vaccine mandate for health care workers.
  

CNBC.com:

• Salesforce fourth quarter guidance misses Wall Street expectations.
• Salesforce promotes Bret Taylor to co-CEO alongside Benioff.
• Eco-friendly shoemaker Allbirds posts wider loss despite 33% gain in quarterly sales; shares fall.
• ‘Way overdue for a correction’: Long-time bull Jim Paulsen delivers a 10% to 15% pullback forecast.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Salesforce, Box, Ambarella and more.
• Expect delays on these 3 renovation projects as 85% of builders report material shortages.
• PayPal saw use of its buy now, pay later option soar nearly 400% on Black Friday, CEO says.

MarketWatch              

• ‘He’s to the left of Lenin’: Republicans fear Cordray at Fed would further ‘Biden’s federal takeover’ of U.S. banking system.
  
• These are Wall Street’s 20 favorite stocks as the Fed’s Powell jolts the market with taper talk.

Zero Hedge:

• Epstein's Pilot Names Names, Recalls Shuttling Clinton, Trump, Spacey And Prince Andrew.
• Retailers Open Pop-Up Container Yards To Bypass Savannah Port Jams.
• Michael Flynn Reportedly Calls QAnon A 'CIA Disinformation Campaign'.
• FDA Advisory Committee Narrowly Votes To Approve Merck's COVID 'Miracle Drug'.
• Los Angeles Now Enforcing Vaccine Mandates For Indoor Businesses.
• Over 7,000 Marines Unvaccinated As COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate Deadline Hits.
• Black Friday Disappoints, Cyber Monday Sales Fall For The First Time Ever.
• "Team Transitory" Is Dead After Powell Says "Time To Retire Word Transitory Regarding Inflation".
• Buchanan: Return Of The "Law And Order" Issue.
• WTI Extends Losses After Smaller Than Expected Crude Draw.
• Watch: Joe Rogan Wants To Know Why "No One Is Being Held Accountable" Over 'Russian Collusion' Fake News.
• Government Handling Of COVID Has Been "A Crime", Expect More Selloffs: Trader.
• LA County Sheriff Boots China-Linked Covid Testing Firm After FBI Warns Over DNA Data.
• Powell Sparks Taper Tantrum, Bonds Scream Policy Error.

NY Post: 

• US companies riddled with members of Chinese Communist Party: Devine. Boeing(BA), Qualcomm(QCOM) and Pfizer(PFE) are just three US companies that have employed dozens of CCP members in their Chinese facilities, the database reveals.

Newsmax: 

• George P. Bush: 'Hypocrisy,' 'No Sense of Urgency' on Border Crisis.
• Rand Paul: Need a Bipartisan COVID Probe.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

•  JUST IN: Just One Day After New CEO Announcement, Twitter Bans Sharing Images Or Videos of “Private Individuals” Without Their Consent – Including Memes and Videos of a Crime. 
• REVEALED: Fully Vaccinated Patients Show Mild Symptoms after Omicron Infection in Botswana — Non-Vaccinated Show No Symptoms at All.
• “I Was Frozen In Fear:” Epstein Victim Testifies That Ghislaine Maxwell Was Present and Participated in Sex Abuse – Heiress Allegedly Began Grooming Victim Starting at 14.
• BREAKING: Federal Judge Blocks Vaccine Mandate Nationwide – Protects Health Care Workers Across America.
• White House Cuts Biden’s Audio, Blasts Loud Music as Soon as He Starts Rambling Off-Script (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: Chris Cuomo Suspended “Indefinitely” By CNN.
• Maricopa County To Interview Seven Applicants To Replace Steve Chucri After His Resignation Following Exposed Tapes on Suspected Election Fraud.
• Ted Cruz Crowns Fauci “The Most Dangerous Bureaucrat in American History;” Says Gain of Function Lies Could Land Him in Prison For Up to 5 Years (Video).
• Sweden: Get Your Covid Vaccine Passport in a Chip in Your Hand (VIDEO).
• President Trump Calls on Democrats to Deal with Smash-and-Grab Robberies or Call in the National Guard.
• Ghislaine Maxwell Trial Begins with a Obama Judge and Jim Comey’s Daughter Prosecuting – Will Ties to FBI and US Government Be Revealed?

The Epoch Times:

• Beijing’s Organ Harvesting Crimes Must End: European Lawmakers.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 654,412 (US) Reports Through November 12, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.25 -4.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 55.25 -3.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.65 -.04%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,007.0 +23.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.7 -3.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.07%.

• S&P 500 futures +.49%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.48%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DCI)/.55
• (GIII)/1.79
• (PDCO)/.50
• (WEBR)/-.18
  

After the Close:

• (AI)/-.29
• (CRWD)/.10
• (FIVE)/.29
• (OKTA)/-.23
• (PVH)2.06
• (SMTC)/.72
• (SNOW)/-.06
• (SPLK)/-.53
• (SNPS)/1.79
  

Economic Releases 

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Nov. is estimated to fall to 525K versus 571K in Oct.

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.5% decline in Sept.
• ISM Manufacturing for Nov. is estimated to rise to 61.2 versus 60.8 in Oct.
• ISM Prices Paid for Nov. is estimated to fall to 85.5 versus 85.7 in Oct.
  

2:00 pm EST

• US Fed's Beige Book release.

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Nov. is estimated to rise to 13.4M versus 12.99M in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Treasury's Yellen speaking, Fed's Powell speaking, Eurozone PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Credit Suisse Industrials Conference and the (GM) fireside chat could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Virus Lockdown Worries, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Heavy 

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.4 +15.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,045.0 -460.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.98 -.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 +.6%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 n/a

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0  -15.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +4.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.72 +42.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.8 +4.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 436.52 +2.9%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.49 +3.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.4 +1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 213.91 +1.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.96 +.27%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 13.0 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -33.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  69.75 +2.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.75 -.42%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 100.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.95 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.5 -3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.0 +15.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.3 +4.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 -5.0 basis points
• 97.5%(unch.) chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 75.1%(-7.3 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 171 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +14/100K people
• 32% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -136 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/transport/tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.6% 2) Airlines -3.4% 3) Oil Service -3.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• USAC, CARS, PMT, AHCO, AGNC, LSXMK, HTZ, DOMO, SEAS, PLAN, CVNA, SBGI, CEQP, TWTR, GXO, FTAI, LZ, UBER, CUK, RWT, INTU, AB, T, NCLH, LWLG, KRYS, DDS, ARRY and TGTX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KMPH 2) KRYS 3) EQT 4) EFA 5) IMGN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TGTX 2) BFRI 3) BNED 4) BZUN 5) JKS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +.1% 2) Pharma -.4% 3) Biotech -.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MCRB, VIR, ANNX, BYSI, ENOB, MIRM, RVNC, GRTS, SABS, CHGG, ACRS, ZEN, NVAX, BBIO, AOSL, SMRT, PFE and EBS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TXRH 2) PVH 3) EFA 4) IMGN 5) BLMN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CPIX 2) VIR 3) MEIP 4) CTRN 5) ESMT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +26.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
• 16.4% of Issues Advancing, 79.7% Declining
• 21 New 52-Week Highs, 187 New Lows
• 49.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,000.0 -505.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,772 +.19%
  
• Vix 26.8 +16.9%
• Total Put/Call .72 -19.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.42 +17.4%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Omicron Risks New Inflation Headache for Global Central Bankers.
  
• Australia Delays Easing Border Rules as It Weighs Omicron Threat.    
• Kaisa Is Next Worry for China Bond Traders After Rocky Month.
• Singapore Adds to Its Gold Pile for the First Time in Decades.
• Hong Kong Widens Ban; Singapore Reopening Flops: Virus Update.
  
• Asia Stocks, U.S. Futures Rise as Virus Fear Eases: Markets Wrap.
  
• Oil Pushes Higher as Traders Weigh Omicron Risks, OPEC+ Meeting.
• Ghislaine Maxwell Isn’t Jeffrey Epstein, Defense Tells Jury.
  
• U.S. Drivers Set for Relief at the Pump as Oil Rally Cools.
  
• Dip Buyers Erase Massive Losses at Unprecedented Clip.  
• Making Up for Lost Time, Cargo Ships Are Skipping Oakland And Returning Straight to Asia.  
• Treasuries Keep a Grip on Gains Spurred by Omicron Virus Fears.   
• Jerome Powell Says Omicron Adds Economic Risks, Inflation Uncertainty.

Wall Street Journal:

• Pentagon Plans to Improve Airfields in Guam, Australia to Confront China.
• Workers Quit Jobs in Droves to Become Their Own Bosses.
• Amazon Alabama Workers to Hold New Union Vote, Labor Official Rules.
• CNN to Review Records Showing Chris Cuomo’s Involvement in Coaching Brother.
• Goldman Expands Benefits to Combat Employee Burnout.
• Microsoft’s Nadella Sells Half of His Shares in Company.
• The Omicron Non-Emergency. Vaccine mandates are hurting hospitals, as a judge blocks Biden’s on healthcare workers.
• Jamie Dimon’s China Joke Is on JPMorgan’s ‘Stakeholders’. His kowtow shows that investor value is still paramount—and maybe in this case it shouldn’t be.

Fox News:  

• President backs out of supply chain speech last-minute as nation waits for leader to lead.
• Liberal media bemoans Biden's poor approval rating despite 'achievements'.
• Markets worried COVID omicron variant will lead to new restrictions, boost inflation: El-Erian.
  

CNBC.com:

• Powell to tell Senate omicron variant poses downside risk to economy, complicates inflation picture.
• Cramer on Covid omicron variant: Panic is not an investment strategy at all.
• HashiCorp aiming for $13 billion valuation in IPO, according to updated prospectus.
• Lululemon fires back at Peloton in growing feud over clothing patents.
• Commerce secretary says House needs to pass CHIPS Act immediately to ease semiconductor shortage.

MarketWatch           

• These 60 stocks, including DraftKings, Zillow and Virgin Galactic, are down at least 50% from their 2021 highs.
  
• This is why everyone is getting a generator.
  
• S&P 500 may end ‘pretty flat’ in 2022 amid previously ‘unthinkable’ negative real rates, says BofA strategist.
  
• Who is Parag Agrawal? 5 things to know about the new CEO of Twitter.

Zero Hedge:

• Salvation Army Unrings Bell, No Longer Asking White People To Deliver 'Sincere' Apologies For Their Race.
• Sens. Cruz, Paul Blast "Astounding Authoritarian" Fauci For "I Am Science" Claim.
• Will 2022 Midterms Be The Next Great Crisis Backlash?
• Disney Under Fire For Blocking Simpsons Episode From Hong Kong Streaming Services.
• How California "Solved" Its Record Ship Pileup: It Moved Them Out Of Sight, Over The Horizon.
• The Hidden Victims Of Biden's Border Crisis.
• Hedge Funds Crushed By Surge In Moderna, The Third Most Shorted Name.
• Arabica Stockpiles Experience Largest Plunge Since '98 Amid Severe Shortage.
• Green Technologies Have A Glaring Problem Of Scale.
• FTC Demands Wal-Mart, Amazon & Others Participate In Supply-Chain Probe.
• Think Carefully About Accepting The Concept Of Vaccine Passports.
• Fed Chair Powell Swings Dovish, Blames Omicron Uncertainty.
• Will The Omicron Virus Turn Out To Actually Be Bullish For Stocks.
• A Different Perspective: How Threat-Free Are Americans From COVID-19?
• 'Partner In Crime': Maxwell Prosecution Opens With Sordid Details Of Epstein Sexual Predation.
• Bitcoin & Big-Tech Erase Omicron Fears; Bonds, Black Gold, & The Buck Less Sure.

Newsmax: 

• Report: Biden to Delay Suspension of Unvaccinated Federal Workers Until After Holidays.
  
• Rep. Steil: Concerned Biden Will Use Omicron to Push Agenda.
• Navarro: Evidence Fauci Involved in Wuhan Lab ‘Over the Moon’
• Rep. Grothman: Omicron Brings New Worries on Immigrant Testing.
• Majority Say Biden to Blame for Divided US: Poll.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• Five Minutes After Telling Americans to Wear Masks Indoors, Biden Violates His Own Mask Mandate (VIDEO).
• DeSantis Said Florida Won’t Lock Down Over ‘Media-Driven Hysteria’ About Omicron Variant
• JUST IN: Biden Regime Quietly Tells Federal Agencies to Suspend Enforcement of Vaccine Mandate For Federal Workers Until After Holidays While Publicly Pressuring “The World” To Take Experimental Jab.
• Trump-Appointed Judge Blocks Biden’s Vaccine Mandate For Healthcare Workers in 10 States.
• Fake News Media Claims 5X Increase in Healthy World-Class Athletes Who Suddenly Collapse Holding Their Chest is Just a “Coincidence” and Nothing to “Panic” Over.
• Maskless Jill Biden Reads Story about the Biden Family to Masked Second Graders Visiting White House (VIDEO).
• Twitter’s New CEO Does Not Care About or Honor American Rights and Freedoms – Says “Our Role Is Not to Be Bound by First Amendment” …Update: Posted Racist Anti-White Tweet.
• ON FIRE! Dr. Naomi Wolf: “Dr. Fauci Should Be Scared of Investigations – There Clearly Is Misconduct Going On” (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Communist China Declared War on the US Long Ago.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 654,412 (US) Reports Through November 12, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.0 -1.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 51.75 -2.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.07 +.17%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,584.0 +80.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.06%.

• S&P 500 futures +.32%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (JKS)/.02
  

After the Close:

• (AMBA)/.49
• (BOX)/.21
• (HPE)/.49
• (NTAP)/1.21
• (CRM)/.92
• (ZS)/.12
  

Economic Releases 

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.0% gain in Aug. 
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +1.15% versus a +1.17% gain in Aug.

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Nov. is estimated to fall to 67.0 versus 68.4 in Oct.

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 110.8 versus 113.8 in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US retail sales reports, Scotiabank Mining Conference, BofA Materials/Infrastructure Conference, Wells Fargo TMT Summit and the Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.