Wednesday, July 03, 2024

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:   

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @JamesOKeefeIII
  • @simonateba
  • @KanekoaTheGreat
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @VigilantFox 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Stocks Close at Session Highs on Long-Term Rate Peak Speculation, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 +.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.7 euros/megawatt-hour -3.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.4 -17.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.5 +1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.8 -.9 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +23.9% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 260.96 +.07:  Growth Rate +14.3% unch., P/E 21.1 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 329.84 +.19: Growth Rate +23.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 35.7 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .68 +3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.7% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.7% -.4 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 66.5%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 52.1%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -130 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Friday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for June is estimated to fall to 190K versus 272K in May.
  • The Unemployment Rate for June is estimated at 4.0% versus 4.0% in May.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in May.

Upcoming Splits

  • (WSM) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed Monetary Policy report, US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC net speculative position reports and the Fed balance sheet report could also impact global trading on Friday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Tuesday, July 02, 2024

Wednesday Watch

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Stocks Rising into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.9 -3.0%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .31 -69.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 62.1 +2.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 190.2 +.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.9 +1.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 8.0 -4.9% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 153.0 +21.0
  • Total Put/Call .90 -1.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.41 +28.2%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$143.7M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.2 -2.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 270.6 +1.3%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 270 +10
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.8 -.9%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 174.7 -.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.3 -.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 172.4 -1.0%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 145.4 +.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.36%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 4.75 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 151.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 720.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.7 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.4 +2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.4 +3.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.7 -1.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +4.1% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 260.89 n/a:  Growth Rate +14.3% n/a, P/E 21.0 n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 329.65 n/a: Growth Rate +22.9% n/a, P/E 35.4 n/a
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .99 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .65 +19.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -31.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.7% -50.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 51.1% +.7 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% +5.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 63.2%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 52.7%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +235 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -154 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +182 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -1.1% 2) Biotech -1.0% 3) Telecom -1.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FLNC, BLBD, RDUS, RCM and PCRX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CPNG 2) AAP 3) MTUM 4) ANVS 5) CONN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CONN 2) RDUS 3) CMBM 4) RCM 5) ALT
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLU 2) XLI 3) KBWB 4) ITB 5) IYJ

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +1.0% 2) Regional Banks +.9% 3) Shipping +.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CENX, IREN, VSAT, TSLA, RIVN, RDDT, EVH, NOAH, ALKT, HDB, CORZ, BTDR, VIST, LOAR, BJRI and SPHR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CRH 2) NKLA 3) ON 4) DISH 5) XHB
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RDZN 2) VS 3) BEEM 4) LBPH 5) SMCI
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLV 3) SMH 4) XLK 5) XLC
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (STZ)/3.46
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

  • Challenger Job Cuts report.

8:15 am EST

  • ADP Employment Change for June is estimated to rise to 165K versus 152K in May.

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 235K versus 233K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1841K versus 1839K prior.

10:00 am EST

  • Factory Orders for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in April.
  • ISM Services Index for June is estimated to fall to 52.6 versus 53.8 in May.
  • ISM Services Prices Paid for June is estimated to fall to 56.5 versus 58.1 in May.

2:00 pm EST

  • FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Williams speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -20.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 +.3
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 59.5% of Issues Advancing, 37.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.45 +31.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$93.7M
  • 47 New 52-Week Highs, 49 New Lows
  • 52.5% (+.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 -2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.3 +1.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 241.0 +.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,283.0 +.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 49.0 (NEUTRAL) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.1 -.4%
  • Vix 12.1 -.9%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -5.5%