Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 +.30%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 113.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.7 euros/megawatt-hour -3.0%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.4 -17.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.5 +1.9 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.8 -.9 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +23.9% n/a
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 260.96 +.07: Growth Rate +14.3% unch., P/E 21.1 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 329.84 +.19: Growth Rate +23.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 35.7 +.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +9.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .68 +3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.7% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.7% -.4 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 66.5%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 52.1%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -130 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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