Durable Goods Orders for August are estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +.3% gain in July.
Durables Ex Transports for August are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -3.8% decline in July.
10:00 am EST
New Home Sales for August are estimated to rise to 295K versus 276K in July.
Upcoming Splits
None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
The Fed's Duke speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking and the Fed's Bernanke speaking could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
Swaps on U.S. Government Debt Climb to Highest in Six Weeks. The cost to hedge against losses on U.S. government debt rose to the most in six weeks as investors bet the Federal Reserve will put more cash into the economy and a report showed home prices continued to drop. Credit-default swaps on U.S. Treasuries climbed 1.7 basis points, the biggest increase in more than three weeks, to 49.4, according to data provider CMA. The Fed said yesterday that slowing inflation and sluggish growth may require further action. The statement positioned the central bank to expand its near-record $2.3 trillion balance sheet as soon as November. “It goes right along with the gold trade and the dollar trade and the idea that the U.S. is debasing its currency and accumulating obligations beyond that which it will repay,” Dan Greenhaus, the New York-based chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., said in a telephone interview. The Dollar Index fell to a six-month low today and gold climbed to a record.
Pelosi Urges Action on China Currency as Panel Considers Measure. House Democratic leaders began a final pre-election push for legislation that would authorize trade sanctions against China if the nation’s currency remains undervalued. “It is time for Congress to pass legislation that will give the administration leverage in its bilateral and multilateral negotiations with the Chinese government -- so that U.S. businesses and workers have a more level playing field in world trade,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said yesterday in a statement, as the Ways and Means Committee set a session for tomorrow to draft the legislation.
How to Get Housing Off Government's Juice: Peter J. Wallison. In a year when angry voters are demanding a reduced government role in the economy, it is remarkable that most of the ideas for supplanting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are just imaginative ways of keeping government in the business of housing finance.
CBOE Plans to Challenge CDS Market With Credit-Default Options. CBOE Holdings Inc. is seeking to resurrect credit-default options, or contracts that pay off when companies fail to repay their debt, as regulators try to shift some trading of over-the-counter derivatives onto exchanges.
Commodity Assets Under Management Decline to $293 Billion, Barclays Says. Commodity assets under management fell by $7 billion from a record last month on renewed investor concern that economic growth may slow, curbing demand for raw materials, Barclays Capital said. Assets fell to $293 billion, the first drop since January, London-based analyst Amrita Sen wrote in a report e-mailed today. Investors withdrew $5 billion from commodity index swaps, the first monthly decline in at least five years, Sen said. “There was concern about the U.S. and concern about China that spooked the market,” Sen said.
Central Banks Have Tough Time Finding Exit as Recovery Weakens. The world’s major central banks are having a tough time exiting crisis mode, prolonging aid or raising the prospect of reviving unconventional stimulus tools as the global recovery loses momentum.
Oil Trades Below $75 After Falling on Unexpected Increase in U.S. Supplies. Oil traded below $75 a barrel in New York after a government report showed that U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly increased, adding to signs of slowing economic growth. “The builds aren’t good for the market,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “There just doesn’t seem to be the demand around at the moment. The major industries that use oil intensely in the U.S. are still sluggish.” Total consumption of petroleum products averaged 19.2 million barrels a day last week, down 1.8 percent from the seven days ending Sept. 10, the Energy Department report showed.
California Budget Impasse Set to Break 85-Day Record as No Vote Scheduled. California is poised this week to break its record of going 85 days without a budget as Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and lawmakers remain at odds over closing a $19 billion deficit in the most populous U.S. state. “We can solve this in three seconds if the Democrats wanted to cut enough so the state could live within its means,” the 63-year-old Republican said in an interview before meeting with legislators in his Santa Monica office today. “The second that happens, we could have a budget,” he said. “It’s a very difficult time for all of us.”
New York, Hawaii Top Earners Face Highest Tax Under Obama Plan, Study Says. High-income residents of New York City and President Barack Obama’s home state of Hawaii would have the highest marginal tax rates in the U.S. if Congress adopts the president’s proposal to increase taxes for top earners, a study found. The Tax Foundation, a Washington research group that advocates for lower taxes, said state, local and federal levies would result in a top 50.8 percent rate on high-income New York City residents. Affluent Hawaiians would pay 49.7 percent. Residents of California, Vermont, Maryland and New York round out the five states with the heaviest burdens, with top federal- state rates of 49.4 percent, 48.8 percent, 48.6 percent and 48.4 percent, respectively.
Former Fed Governor Heller Says 'Too Little' Inflation Concern Misplaced. Former Federal Reserve Governor Robert Heller said the central bank’s concern that inflation is too low is misplaced. “Gold prices are up, commodity prices are up and the Fed is concerned about too little inflation,” Heller said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio’s “The Hays Advantage” with Kathleen Hays. “There’s a lot of inflation, as far as I can see, in the pipeline.”
California's Bell Used as 'Cash Drawer,' State Controller Says After Audit. Bell, California, the Los Angeles suburb that paid its city manager almost $800,000 a year, illegally raised taxes, mismanaged bond funds and entered into improper contracts and land purchases, according to an audit by state Controller John Chiang. The city used $93,000 to repay two personal loans extended to its former manager, Robert Rizzo, and approved $1.5 million in other loans to city employees without legal authorization, the controller’s office said today. “The city had almost no accounting controls, no checks or balances, and the general fund was run like a petty-cash drawer,” Chiang, a Democrat who is running for re-election in November, said in a statement. “The city’s purse-strings were tied to only one individual, resulting in a perfect breeding ground for fraudulent, wasteful spending.”
Banks Pressed on Sour Home Loans. Investors in Pool of Securities Seek to Force Lenders to Buy Back or Modify Problem Mortgages. Big U.S. banks are facing legal pressure to make up for losses tied to pools of soured low-end mortgage loans. In the latest effort, a group of investors in 2,300 mortgage securities worth roughly $500 billion is seeking to force several banks that originated or are now servicing faulty subprime-mortgage loans to repurchase or modify them.
Exodus Could Shift White House Tone. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is likely to resign in a matter of weeks, hastening a remake of the Obama White House that could lead to a lower-key, more cooperative approach after the November midterm elections.
SEC Blasted on Goldman(GS). Suit's Timing 'Suspicious,' Watchdog Says; Heat on Agencies as Crisis Cases Lag. The Securities and Exchange Commission's internal watchdog said the timing of a fraud lawsuit against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. filed by the SEC was "suspicious," suggesting agency officials tried to distract attention from a report criticizing the SEC for failing to detect an alleged Ponzi scheme.
How Seniors Will Pay for ObamaCare. In many areas, Medicare Advantage enrollees will lose about one-third of their health insurance benefits. The cuts will finance new subsidies for younger people.
Big Yuan Rise Would Mean Bankruptcies: Chinese Premier. An appreciation of 20 percent in China's currency would cause widespread bankruptcies in China's export sector, where firms operate on thin margins, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said on Wednesday. "The conditions for a major appreciation of the renminbi do not exist," Wen said in a speech to U.S. businessmen in New York. He said the appeciation of China's currency demanded by U.S. lawmakers would not bring jobs back to the United States because U.S. firms no longer make such labor-intensive products.
In Dispute, China Blocks Rare Earth Exports to Japan. Sharply raising the stakes in a dispute over Japan’s detention of a Chinese fishing trawler captain, the Chinese government has placed a trade embargo on all exports to Japan of a crucial category of minerals used in products like hybrid cars, wind turbines and guided missiles.
Forbes:
Shale Gas Means Flat Prices Till 2020. Oil production may have peaked in the U.S. in the early 1970s but fears of dwindling natural gas reserves, which were prevalent even a few years ago, have been demolished by the discovery of huge new shale-gas deposits. Gas prices will likely remain flat at around $5 per 1000 cubic feet through 2020, changing assumptions about everything from the viability of green-energy projects to the prospects of a pipeline to bring stranded gas from Canada to the U.S.
Republican 'Pledge to America': Spending Caps, Tax Cuts. House Republicans are set to release on Thursday a "Pledge to America," an ambitious and sweeping set of proposed changes to domestic and security policy, including promises to freeze most federal government hiring, cut Congress' budget, place hard caps on domestic spending accounts, prevent the phase-out of tax cuts that are set to expire in 2011 and "repeal and replace" the new health care law. Many of the reforms envisioned by House Republicans are highly unlikely ever to become law, but others foreshadow tough fights with President Barack Obama's administration over spending, taxation and national security policy if Republicans win control of the House in November's mid-term election. Another set would require simple changes to House rules.
Barack Obama Offers New Global Approach. Unveiling “America’s new approach” to fighting global poverty, President Barack Obama said the United States plans to shift its emphasis to “investing” in developing countries through diplomacy and trade as a way to augment direct U.S. aid – a mission he linked directly to the security and livelihoods of Americans.
Democrats Guess Wrong on Healthcare. Rarely have so many political strategists been so wrong about something so big. But when it comes to the health care bill, everyone from former President Bill Clinton on down whiffed on some of the more significant predictions. Democrats would run aggressively on the legislation? Nope. Voters would forget about the sausage-making aspects of the legislative process? Doesn’t seem that way, as the process contributed to the sense that the bill was deeply flawed. And Clinton’s own promise to jittery Democrats that their poll numbers would skyrocket after the bill finally passed also didn’t pan out, as the party is fighting for its life in the midterms. At the six-month mark, the law remains a riddle for political analysts, lawmakers and the White House. Here’s a look at some of the predictions that have proved off the mark.
Reuters:
Bed Bath(BBBY) Sees Better Year After Strong 2Q. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly profit and sales estimates and boosted its full-year view as U.S. consumers spent more on their homes, sending its shares up 5.5 percent.
PotashCorp(POT) Files to Halt BHP(BHP) Bid. PotashCorp has stepped up its defence against a $39bn hostile bid from BHP Billiton, asking a Chicago court to block the bid and accusing the miner of misleading shareholders.
Thoi Bao Kinh Te Vietnam:
The Vietnam Steel Association expects the volume of steel used for construction in September to fall below 400,000 tons, from 483,000 tons in August, citing Nguyen Tien Nghia, vice chairman of the association.
Evening Recommendations Susquehanna:
Rated (AGU) Positive, target $92.
Rated (CF) Positive, $129.
Rated (DD) Positive, target $52.
Rated (MOS) Positive, target $76.
Night Trading
Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.0 +.5 basis point.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 450K versus 450K the prior week.
Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4473K versus 4485K prior.
10:00 am EST
Existing Home Sales for August are estimated to rise to 4.1 Million versus 3.83Million in July.
Leading Indicators for August are estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in July.
Upcoming Splits
None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Federal Reserve Board Mortgage Meeting, RPX Housing Composite Index, Goldman Sachs Communacopia Conference, (ORCL) Financial Analyst Meeting, (BX) Analyst Meeting, (BG) Investor Day and the (EW) Analyst Meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
North American Investment Grade CDS Index 111.0 bps +3.51%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 129.62 bps +12.82%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 1578.0 bps +1.34%
Emerging Market CDS Index 234.19 bps -1.81%
2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 unch.
TED Spread 14.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
3-Month T-Bill Yield .15% unch.
Yield Curve 211.0 -5 bps
China Import Iron Ore Spot $139.50/Metric Tonne +.22%.
Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.0 +.9 points.
10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88% +4 bps
Overseas Futures:
Nikkei Futures: Indicating -91 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating +22 open in Germany
Portfolio:
Slightly Lower: On losses in my Tech, Biotech and Medical long positions
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bearish as the S&P 500 trades just modestly lower despite recent sharp equity gains, rising financial sector pessimism, increasing economic fear and sovereign debt worries. On the positive side, Utility, Coal, Ag, Gold and Retail shares are especially strong, rising .5%+. Select large-cap technology growth stock leaders continue to trade much better than the broad market despite (ADBE)'s disappointment. Lumber is rising another +4.31%. Copper is jumping +2.48%. On the negative side, Airline, Insurance, I-Banking, Bank, Disk Drive, Semi, Computer and Software shares are under pressure, falling more than 1.25%. Small-caps are underperforming. (XLF) and (IYR) have been a bit heavy throughout the day again. The Euro Financial Sector CDS Index is soaring for the third day in a row and close to a technical breakout, gaining another +12.82%, which is a major negative. The Portugal sovereign cds is rising +6.11% to 391.36 bps, which is a meaningful technical breakout. The Ireland sovereign cds is continuing its recent parabolic move higher, rising another +4.74% to a record of 453.21 bps. The UK sovereign cds is gaining +6.3% to 72.53 bps and the US sovereign cds is rising +4.93% to 49.41 bps. Furthermore, key credit default swap indices continue to move higher, even as equities trend higher, which is also a large negative. Oil continues to trade poorly given the euro's strength and the 10-year yield has dropped -26 bps from last Friday's high in yield. The Shanghai Composite was closed last night. Spain's IBEX 35 was -1.93% today and appears to be rolling over. (ADBE)'s harsh stock reaction to downward guidance is also a broad market negative. The rise in the euro and tech sector leadership strength are holding the bears back today. Given what is happening to eurozone cds, I suspect the euro is getting close to another meaningful top. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on rising economic fear, tech sector earnings worries, sovereign debt angst, profit-taking, more shorting and increasing financial sector pessimism.
