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Wednesday, April 06, 2005
Morning Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on DNA and A.
- Reiterated Outperform on RIMM, sees 30% upside.
Smith Barney:
- Reiterated Buy on RIMM, target $96.
- Reiterated Buy on WY, target $75.
- Reiterated Buy on SEBL, target $11.
- Reiterated Buy on CSCO, target $30.
- Reiterated Buy on BJS, target $62.
- Reiterated Buy on MEE, target $54.
Morgan Stanley:
- Raised PFE to Overweight, target $32.
- Reinstated ATG Overweight, target $40.
- Said steel prices may fall in the second half, ending six straight quarters of increases, as demand growth slows in China, the US and Europe.
- Reiterated Overweight on CP, target $40.
- Reiterated Overweight on N, target $50.
Merrill Lynch:
- Raised ATYT, ALTR, BRCM, AMIS, MXIM to Buy.
Legg Mason:
- Raised IGT to Buy, target $35.
- Rated WMS Buy, target $33.
Prudential:
- Downgraded NCX to Underweight, target $35.
- Downgraded WLK to Underweight, target $24.
Bear Stearns:
- Rated CMOS Outperform, target $12.
- Rated MTSN Outperform, target $12.
Deutsche Bank:
- Raised IPG to Buy, target $16.
Piper Jaffray:
- Raised JCP to Outperform, target $63.
JP Morgan:
- Rated ATU Overweight.
UBS:
- Downgraded RSAS to Reduce, target $11.
- Raised BHI to Buy, target $55.
- Reiterated Buy on IBM, target $107.
- Reiterated Buy on RIMM, target $95.
- Reiterated Outperform on DNA and A.
- Reiterated Outperform on RIMM, sees 30% upside.
Smith Barney:
- Reiterated Buy on RIMM, target $96.
- Reiterated Buy on WY, target $75.
- Reiterated Buy on SEBL, target $11.
- Reiterated Buy on CSCO, target $30.
- Reiterated Buy on BJS, target $62.
- Reiterated Buy on MEE, target $54.
Morgan Stanley:
- Raised PFE to Overweight, target $32.
- Reinstated ATG Overweight, target $40.
- Said steel prices may fall in the second half, ending six straight quarters of increases, as demand growth slows in China, the US and Europe.
- Reiterated Overweight on CP, target $40.
- Reiterated Overweight on N, target $50.
Merrill Lynch:
- Raised ATYT, ALTR, BRCM, AMIS, MXIM to Buy.
Legg Mason:
- Raised IGT to Buy, target $35.
- Rated WMS Buy, target $33.
Prudential:
- Downgraded NCX to Underweight, target $35.
- Downgraded WLK to Underweight, target $24.
Bear Stearns:
- Rated CMOS Outperform, target $12.
- Rated MTSN Outperform, target $12.
Deutsche Bank:
- Raised IPG to Buy, target $16.
Piper Jaffray:
- Raised JCP to Outperform, target $63.
JP Morgan:
- Rated ATU Overweight.
UBS:
- Downgraded RSAS to Reduce, target $11.
- Raised BHI to Buy, target $55.
- Reiterated Buy on IBM, target $107.
- Reiterated Buy on RIMM, target $95.
Wednesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Asian takeovers reached a record $119 billion in the first quarter, as Japan's Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings announced plans to merge and form the world's biggest bank by assets.
- Crude oil is falling for a third day on speculation global stockpiles may rise because of increased output by the OPEC.
Washington Post:
- Wal-Mart Stores would be required to spend more on employee health care under legislation approved today my Maryland lawmakers.
AP:
- HealthSouth sued its former auditors, Ernst & Young LLP, for failing to detect a $2.7 billion accounting fraud.
Commercial Times:
- Taiwan central bank's US dollar assets rose after the bank bought the unit to stop the local currency's gain. US dollar assets now account for about 70% of the island's foreign-currency reserves, up from about 60% in the second half of last year.
Hong Kong Economic Journal:
- China's National Development and Reform Commission urged the central bank to raise interest rates to curb property prices.
Shanghai Daily:
- Prices for new apartments in Shanghai fell last month as government efforts to cool the property market start to take effect.
Economic Daily News:
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and United Microelectronics are likely to see their March sales rise from February as demand for chips used in flat panel displays is climbing.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on GOOG, IBM, DKS and YHOO.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.09%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.07%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
AA/.39
BBBY/.55
BLUD/.14
CBK/.11
MON/1.28
NDC/.12
SCHN/1.00
Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
None of note
Bloomberg:
- Asian takeovers reached a record $119 billion in the first quarter, as Japan's Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings announced plans to merge and form the world's biggest bank by assets.
- Crude oil is falling for a third day on speculation global stockpiles may rise because of increased output by the OPEC.
Washington Post:
- Wal-Mart Stores would be required to spend more on employee health care under legislation approved today my Maryland lawmakers.
AP:
- HealthSouth sued its former auditors, Ernst & Young LLP, for failing to detect a $2.7 billion accounting fraud.
Commercial Times:
- Taiwan central bank's US dollar assets rose after the bank bought the unit to stop the local currency's gain. US dollar assets now account for about 70% of the island's foreign-currency reserves, up from about 60% in the second half of last year.
Hong Kong Economic Journal:
- China's National Development and Reform Commission urged the central bank to raise interest rates to curb property prices.
Shanghai Daily:
- Prices for new apartments in Shanghai fell last month as government efforts to cool the property market start to take effect.
Economic Daily News:
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and United Microelectronics are likely to see their March sales rise from February as demand for chips used in flat panel displays is climbing.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on GOOG, IBM, DKS and YHOO.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.09%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.07%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
AA/.39
BBBY/.55
BLUD/.14
CBK/.11
MON/1.28
NDC/.12
SCHN/1.00
Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher as another decline in energy prices is boosting exporting shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed as optimism over lower energy prices offsets worries over Tech sector earnings. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into tomorrow.
Tuesday, April 05, 2005
Tuesday Close
Indices
S&P 500 1,181.39 +.45%
DJIA 10,458.46 +.36%
NASDAQ 1,999.32 +.41%
Russell 2000 614.50 +.12%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,644.49 +.40%
S&P Barra Growth 570.47 +.59%
S&P Barra Value 606.53 +.31%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.22 +1.0%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 743.85 +.19%
Morgan Stanley Technology 453.99 -.04%
Transports 3,721.18 +.36%
Utilities 363.61 +.67%
Put/Call .86 -1.15%
NYSE Arms .86 -17.68%
Volatility(VIX) 13.68 -3.05%
ISE Sentiment 185.00 +11.45%
US Dollar 84.66 -.14%
CRB 308.77 -.43%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 55.76 -2.19%
Unleaded Gasoline 168.20 -2.30%
Natural Gas 7.56 -.45%
Heating Oil 161.80 -1.47%
Gold 427.20 +.14%
Base Metals 127.35 -.45%
Copper 148.25 -.13%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.46% +.27%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.17%
Papers +2.66%
Drugs +2.31%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -.87%
Software -.92%
Energy -1.31%
After-hours Movers
HOTT +3.12% on Jeffries upgrade to Outperform, target $27.
SEBL -7.65% after lowering 1Q outlook substantially.
RIMM -5.38% after beating 4Q eps estimates, missing 4Q revenue estimates and lowering 1Q/2Q outlook.
DRTE -4.34% after cutting 1Q forecast.
JDAS -4.57% on SEBL news.
EP -4.87% after saying that it intends to offer approximately $750 million of convertible perpetual preferred stock.
MMSI -5.34% after lowering 05 outlook.
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on PFE and KO.
- Rated SIRI Underperform, target $4.
- Rated ROIAK Underperform, target $12-$13.
- Rated CCU Outperform, target $40-$43.
- Rated WON Outperform, target $25-$27.
- Initiated Radio broadcasting sector with Cautious view.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Thomas H. Lee Partners LP, a US buyout firm that earned more than 10 times its investment on Snapple Beverage Group, plans to raise a $7.5 billion fun, its biggest.
- Lehman Brothers Holdings CEO Fuld said the No. 5 US securities firm may set up an oil-trading business, following market leaders Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
- Rising oil inventories may “damp the current price frenzy,” Fed Chairman Greenspan said.
- General Motors’ debt rating was lowered by Moody’s one level to Baa3, one step above non-investment grade.
- Hain Celestial Group, a maker of organic grooming products and foods, bought Zia Cosmetics to enter the natural cosmetic business.
- Research In Motion reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $2.57 million from costs to settle a patent dispute. Sales missed analysts’ estimates and the shares fell after-hours.
- Qwest Communications gave MCI directors a deadline of noon tomorrow to publicly declare whether they back Qwest’s takeover offer.
- Banc of America cut Morgan Stanley’s bonds to Sell, citing the uncertainty posed by the efforts of former executives to fire CEO Purcell.
CNBC:
- Cablevision Systems is joining buyout firms including Providence Equity Partners and KKR in a $16.5 billion to $17 billion bid for the television assets of Adelphia Communications.
AP:
- The US military will expand its role in fighting Afghanistan’s narcotics trade by training police and providing transportation and intelligence for anti-drug forces.
Consumer Reports:
- The effectiveness of ionizing air cleaners such as Sharper Image’s Ionic Breeze is being questioned because the indoor ozone they can expose users to is higher than recommended levels.
S&P 500 1,181.39 +.45%
DJIA 10,458.46 +.36%
NASDAQ 1,999.32 +.41%
Russell 2000 614.50 +.12%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,644.49 +.40%
S&P Barra Growth 570.47 +.59%
S&P Barra Value 606.53 +.31%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.22 +1.0%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 743.85 +.19%
Morgan Stanley Technology 453.99 -.04%
Transports 3,721.18 +.36%
Utilities 363.61 +.67%
Put/Call .86 -1.15%
NYSE Arms .86 -17.68%
Volatility(VIX) 13.68 -3.05%
ISE Sentiment 185.00 +11.45%
US Dollar 84.66 -.14%
CRB 308.77 -.43%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 55.76 -2.19%
Unleaded Gasoline 168.20 -2.30%
Natural Gas 7.56 -.45%
Heating Oil 161.80 -1.47%
Gold 427.20 +.14%
Base Metals 127.35 -.45%
Copper 148.25 -.13%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.46% +.27%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.17%
Papers +2.66%
Drugs +2.31%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -.87%
Software -.92%
Energy -1.31%
After-hours Movers
HOTT +3.12% on Jeffries upgrade to Outperform, target $27.
SEBL -7.65% after lowering 1Q outlook substantially.
RIMM -5.38% after beating 4Q eps estimates, missing 4Q revenue estimates and lowering 1Q/2Q outlook.
DRTE -4.34% after cutting 1Q forecast.
JDAS -4.57% on SEBL news.
EP -4.87% after saying that it intends to offer approximately $750 million of convertible perpetual preferred stock.
MMSI -5.34% after lowering 05 outlook.
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on PFE and KO.
- Rated SIRI Underperform, target $4.
- Rated ROIAK Underperform, target $12-$13.
- Rated CCU Outperform, target $40-$43.
- Rated WON Outperform, target $25-$27.
- Initiated Radio broadcasting sector with Cautious view.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Thomas H. Lee Partners LP, a US buyout firm that earned more than 10 times its investment on Snapple Beverage Group, plans to raise a $7.5 billion fun, its biggest.
- Lehman Brothers Holdings CEO Fuld said the No. 5 US securities firm may set up an oil-trading business, following market leaders Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
- Rising oil inventories may “damp the current price frenzy,” Fed Chairman Greenspan said.
- General Motors’ debt rating was lowered by Moody’s one level to Baa3, one step above non-investment grade.
- Hain Celestial Group, a maker of organic grooming products and foods, bought Zia Cosmetics to enter the natural cosmetic business.
- Research In Motion reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $2.57 million from costs to settle a patent dispute. Sales missed analysts’ estimates and the shares fell after-hours.
- Qwest Communications gave MCI directors a deadline of noon tomorrow to publicly declare whether they back Qwest’s takeover offer.
- Banc of America cut Morgan Stanley’s bonds to Sell, citing the uncertainty posed by the efforts of former executives to fire CEO Purcell.
CNBC:
- Cablevision Systems is joining buyout firms including Providence Equity Partners and KKR in a $16.5 billion to $17 billion bid for the television assets of Adelphia Communications.
AP:
- The US military will expand its role in fighting Afghanistan’s narcotics trade by training police and providing transportation and intelligence for anti-drug forces.
Consumer Reports:
- The effectiveness of ionizing air cleaners such as Sharper Image’s Ionic Breeze is being questioned because the indoor ozone they can expose users to is higher than recommended levels.
BOTTOM LINE: US stocks rose modestly today on optimism over lower energy prices and a rebound in pharmaceutical stocks. The Portfolio finished unchanged as losses in my Base Metal shorts and Software longs offset gains in my Retail and Computer longs. I took profits in a trading long in the afternoon and added DECK long, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. I am using a $32.5 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market remained modestly positive into the afternoon as the advance/decline line rose slightly, sector performance was mixed and volume stayed light. Energy-related stocks and Tech underperformed into the afternoon, while Consumer shares outperformed and measures of investor anxiety were lower. Overall, today’s market action was slightly negative, considering the drop in energy prices and the market’s oversold state. On the positive side, the CRB Index appears to have broken its parabolic uptrend that has been in place since February even with energy prices near highs.
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