Indices
S&P 500 1,233.68 +.47%
DJIA 10,651.18 +.10%
NASDAQ 2,179.74 +1.06%
Russell 2000 677.78 +2.11%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,311.03 +.66%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,042.03 +.04%
S&P Barra Growth 591.97 +.78%
S&P Barra Value 637.30 +.16%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 586.54 +.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 758.47 +2.29%
Morgan Stanley Technology 498.75 -.31%
Transports 3,780.03 +3.67%
Utilities 392.92 +.05%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 8,217.00 -.94%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 20.0 -34.44%
Put/Call .80 +17.65%
NYSE Arms 1.02 -4.67%
Volatility(VIX) 10.52 +1.84%
ISE Sentiment 160.00 -5.33%
AAII % Bulls 41.18 –28.87%
US Dollar 89.64 -.09%
CRB 304.25 -1.72%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.65 -1.10%
Unleaded Gasoline 172.80 +2.0%
Natural Gas 7.38 -5.45%
Heating Oil 158.19 -5.27%
Gold 425.60 +1.04%
Base Metals 124.73 +.87%
Copper 160.10 +2.10%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.22% +1.34%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.73% +1.24%
Leading Sectors
Steel +14.21%
Oil Service +8.57%
Energy +4.50%
Lagging Sectors
Telecom -1.26%
Hospitals -1.38%
HMOs -7.73%
*5-Day % Change
Friday, July 22, 2005
Stocks Mixed Mid-day as Rates Fall and Energy Rises
Indices
S&P 500 1,228.83 +.15%
DJIA 10,605.24 -.20%
NASDAQ 2,171.82 -.31%
Russell 2000 670.97 +.58%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,272.84 +.32%
S&P Barra Growth 590.70 +.16%
S&P Barra Value 635.48 +.42%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.18 +.13%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 755.97 +.01%
Morgan Stanley Technology 497.61 -.18%
Transports 3,765.62 -.37%
Utilities 391.75 +.81%
Put/Call .79 -14.13%
NYSE Arms 1.08 -23.36%
Volatility(VIX) 10.94 -.27%
ISE Sentiment 155.00 -25.48%
US Dollar 89.55 +.70%
CRB 303.93 +1.05%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.15 +1.79%
Unleaded Gasoline 170.00 +1.13%
Natural Gas 7.37 +.96%
Heating Oil 158.30 +.90%
Gold 425.00 unch.
Base Metals 124.73 +.21%
Copper 160.50 +.09%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.22% -1.25%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +4.88%
Energy +3.16%
Steel +2.25%
Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.92%
Biotech -2.22%
Airlines -2.34%
S&P 500 1,228.83 +.15%
DJIA 10,605.24 -.20%
NASDAQ 2,171.82 -.31%
Russell 2000 670.97 +.58%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,272.84 +.32%
S&P Barra Growth 590.70 +.16%
S&P Barra Value 635.48 +.42%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.18 +.13%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 755.97 +.01%
Morgan Stanley Technology 497.61 -.18%
Transports 3,765.62 -.37%
Utilities 391.75 +.81%
Put/Call .79 -14.13%
NYSE Arms 1.08 -23.36%
Volatility(VIX) 10.94 -.27%
ISE Sentiment 155.00 -25.48%
US Dollar 89.55 +.70%
CRB 303.93 +1.05%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.15 +1.79%
Unleaded Gasoline 170.00 +1.13%
Natural Gas 7.37 +.96%
Heating Oil 158.30 +.90%
Gold 425.00 unch.
Base Metals 124.73 +.21%
Copper 160.50 +.09%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.22% -1.25%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +4.88%
Energy +3.16%
Steel +2.25%
Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.92%
Biotech -2.22%
Airlines -2.34%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Internet, Biotech and Networking longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is neutral as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is neutral considering the rise in energy prices and decline in long-term rates. The U.K. economy, Europe's second-largest, grew 1.7% in the second quarter. I expect the Bank of England to cut rates next month or sooner. The ECB won't be too far behind. This should spur further gains in the U.S. dollar. Industrial production in England fell .4% in the second quarter after a .9% decline the previous quarter. Oil prices have a high correlation with global industrial production. I expect stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close as falling long-term rates more than offsets higher energy prices.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The UK economy, Europe’s second largest, grew in the second quarter at the slowest annual pace in more than 12 years as the expansion in services slowed and industry fell into recession.
- President Bush’s energy bill may include a provision for companies such as Lyondell Chemical to pay $2 billion to $4 billion into a fund to clean up drinking water polluted by the gasoline additive MTBE.
- Microsoft said it chose Windows Vista as the name of its next Windows operating system, and said the version is on schedule for release in the second half of 2006 after a two-year delay.
- The US dollar is gaining against the yen and euro on speculation its drop yesterday following China’s currency revaluation was excessive.
- US 10-year T-notes are rising for a third day in four after a decline that pushed yields to the highest in more than two months attracted investors.
- US companies have reported an 8% gain in second-quarter earnings so far, with more than a third of the S&P 500’s Index having reported results, including Citigroup, Microsoft and Yahoo!.
Wall Street Journal:
- A compromise energy bill proposal in the US Congress would cut to one rather than two months a proposed extension of daylight savings time.
- US Senate Republicans say they plant to schedule a vote for next week on a proposal to abolish the death tax in a bid to force a compromise with Democratic opponents of the repeal.
- US sales of DVDs are slowing, with dire implications for media companies such as News Corp., Time Warner and Walt Disney.
NY Times:
- Wal-Mart Stores and Best Buy are among retailers that may not carry a cleaned-up version of Take-Two Interactive Software’s “Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas” video game.
TradeWinds:
- Some Chinese shipyards have started to cut prices as demand for new ships drops, citing unidentified shipbrokers.
- Greek shipping companies cut first-half new ship orders by 60%, in terms of cargo capacity, as prices rose and freight rates fell.
- The UK economy, Europe’s second largest, grew in the second quarter at the slowest annual pace in more than 12 years as the expansion in services slowed and industry fell into recession.
- President Bush’s energy bill may include a provision for companies such as Lyondell Chemical to pay $2 billion to $4 billion into a fund to clean up drinking water polluted by the gasoline additive MTBE.
- Microsoft said it chose Windows Vista as the name of its next Windows operating system, and said the version is on schedule for release in the second half of 2006 after a two-year delay.
- The US dollar is gaining against the yen and euro on speculation its drop yesterday following China’s currency revaluation was excessive.
- US 10-year T-notes are rising for a third day in four after a decline that pushed yields to the highest in more than two months attracted investors.
- US companies have reported an 8% gain in second-quarter earnings so far, with more than a third of the S&P 500’s Index having reported results, including Citigroup, Microsoft and Yahoo!.
Wall Street Journal:
- A compromise energy bill proposal in the US Congress would cut to one rather than two months a proposed extension of daylight savings time.
- US Senate Republicans say they plant to schedule a vote for next week on a proposal to abolish the death tax in a bid to force a compromise with Democratic opponents of the repeal.
- US sales of DVDs are slowing, with dire implications for media companies such as News Corp., Time Warner and Walt Disney.
NY Times:
- Wal-Mart Stores and Best Buy are among retailers that may not carry a cleaned-up version of Take-Two Interactive Software’s “Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas” video game.
TradeWinds:
- Some Chinese shipyards have started to cut prices as demand for new ships drops, citing unidentified shipbrokers.
- Greek shipping companies cut first-half new ship orders by 60%, in terms of cargo capacity, as prices rose and freight rates fell.
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US House of Representatives voted 257-171 to extend provisions of the USA Patriot Act, the law passed after the 2001 terrorist attacks to strengthen law enforcement's surveillance authority.
- Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing, Singapore's largest chipmaker, reported a smaller-than-expected second-quarter loss as demand started to recover.
London-based Times:
- Samsung Electronics has become the world's most valuable consumer electronics brand, overtaking Sony Corp., citing research by Interbrand.
- Prime Minister Tony Blair has been urged by senior police officers for greater powers to tackle the threat of terrorism.
Financial Times:
- London's tourism industry may suffer from the threat of further terrorist attacks, citing British Hospitality Association Chief Executive Bob Cotton.
Economic Daily News:
- China's move to end its decade-old peg to the dollar to let the yuan strengthen may move the Taiwan dollar, and Taiwan's central bank doesn't rule out stabilizing the Taiwan currency.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on NUE, ODP, TPX, SBC, ROH, GOOG and DHR.
- Reiterated Underperform on AZR.
Business Week
- American International Group(AIG) will likely recapture its business momentum and boost its share price.
- Shares of Intrado Inc.(TRDO), which provides emergency phone services to US carriers, may benefit because the company may be sold.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50 to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
BDX/.68
CMI/2.40
FLIR/.27
FPL/.70
KMB/.94
MYG/.10
OXY/2.27
SLB/.67
SII/.65
SLAB/.27
Upcoming Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
None of note
Bloomberg:
- The US House of Representatives voted 257-171 to extend provisions of the USA Patriot Act, the law passed after the 2001 terrorist attacks to strengthen law enforcement's surveillance authority.
- Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing, Singapore's largest chipmaker, reported a smaller-than-expected second-quarter loss as demand started to recover.
London-based Times:
- Samsung Electronics has become the world's most valuable consumer electronics brand, overtaking Sony Corp., citing research by Interbrand.
- Prime Minister Tony Blair has been urged by senior police officers for greater powers to tackle the threat of terrorism.
Financial Times:
- London's tourism industry may suffer from the threat of further terrorist attacks, citing British Hospitality Association Chief Executive Bob Cotton.
Economic Daily News:
- China's move to end its decade-old peg to the dollar to let the yuan strengthen may move the Taiwan dollar, and Taiwan's central bank doesn't rule out stabilizing the Taiwan currency.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on NUE, ODP, TPX, SBC, ROH, GOOG and DHR.
- Reiterated Underperform on AZR.
Business Week
- American International Group(AIG) will likely recapture its business momentum and boost its share price.
- Shares of Intrado Inc.(TRDO), which provides emergency phone services to US carriers, may benefit because the company may be sold.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50 to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
BDX/.68
CMI/2.40
FLIR/.27
FPL/.70
KMB/.94
MYG/.10
OXY/2.27
SLB/.67
SII/.65
SLAB/.27
Upcoming Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as strength in China is being offset by weakness in Japan. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rise later in the day on short-covering. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
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