Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- CEOs, directors and other senior officials in corporate America are buying more of their companies’ shares than they’re selling for the first time since 1995, prompting growing confidence the stock market is poised to rally for the rest of the year. August Busch III, an AT&T(T) board member since 1980, bought $2.27 million shares in the biggest US phone company last month, his largest purchase on record. Monsanto Co.(MON) director William Parfet added to his holdings in the world’s No.1 seed producer for the first time in eight years.
- Perceived headwinds aren’t preventing the DJIA from beating all of the world’s biggest stock markets.
- President Bush is asking Congress to fund a $25 billion budget for the US Energy Dept., the largest requested increase for the dept. in five years. The president proposes to raise spending on programs to increase power production without boosting greenhouse gas emissions. The budget allocates more spending on “clean-coal” technology to capture emissions from coal-burning power plants as well as nuclear energy, which provides power without emitting carbon dioxide.
- Sugar-cane production in Brazil, the world’s biggest producer of sugar, may rise this year as growers plant more to benefit from soaring demand for biofuels, research company Datagro Ltd. said.
- The global sugar surplus may extend beyond 2009 as a price rally spurred by hedge fund buying dissuades farmers from reducing output, said Jonathan Kingsman, head of sugar and ethanol research company Societe Kingsman SA.
- Vestas Wind Systems A/S, the world’s biggest wind-turbine maker, rose 12% in Copenhagen trading after lifting its 2007 earnings forecast.
- Ignore the Obituaries, US Reign Will Endure.
- Crude oil is rising $1/bbl. after the Houston Ship Channel was closed to tankers because of fog and Turkish planes attacked Kurdish insurgent bases, boosting investment fund speculation in the commodity.
- Citadel Investment Group LLC, the asset-management firm run by Kenneth Griffin, separated its hedge fund business from an options market-making unit in what may be a prelude to a public offering.
- Microsoft(MSFT) May Borrow for First Time to Buy Yahoo(YHOO).

NY Times:
- Another Difficulty for a Microsoft-Yahoo Marriage: Recruiting.
- GM’s(GM) Global Strategy: A Brand for Every Place.

Forbes.com:
- Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner called on the mortgage industry to help avoid a wave of defaults by “quickly” modifying payment terms.

PRNewswire:
- RBC Capital Markets today announced the launch of the RBC Emerging Manager Allocator platform, a proprietary pool of capital that is structured to invest in a diversified group of emerging manager hedge funds with a demonstrated ability in alternative investing.

Broadcasting & Cable:
- Cablevision(CVC) Starts New Video on Demand DVD Service.

Interfax:
- For the first time since 1991, Russian tanks, multiple rocket launchers and armored personnel carriers will roll across Red Square on May 9 as part of the annual Victory Day parade.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Mid-cap Value (-1.54%)

Sector Underperformers:

Retail (-4.34%), Airlines (-3.93%) and Homebuilders (-3.63%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

DTG, ASF, VVI, MSTR, RYAAY, MASI, BPHX, ZOLT and NTG

Factory Orders Rise Again, Gauge of Future Business Spending Jumps

- Factory Orders for December rose 2.3% versus estimates of a 2.5% gain and an upwardly revised 1.7% gain in November.

BOTTOM LINE: Orders to US factories rose in December by the most since July, indicating business spending on new equipment is accelerating, Bloomberg reported. The 2.3% gain is the fourth consecutive increase and follows a revised 1.7% rise the prior month. The increase in factory orders was led by a 5% surge in demand for durable goods, such as airplanes and computers. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a gauge for future business spending, jumped 4.5% versus a .1% decline the prior month. Computer orders rose 4.6% in December and machinery orders jumped 7.3%, the most since December 2006. Factories had enough goods on hand to last 1.24 months, up from the record 1.22 months set in November. I continue to believe manufacturing will help keep the overall US economy growing as companies rebuild depleted inventories from booming exports.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Mid-cap Growth (-.52%)

Sector Outperformers:

Utilities (+1.3%), Alternative Energy (+1.08%) and Oil Service (+.83%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

GBX, R, KWK, OMRI, NVEC, YHOO, COIN, UDRL, SILC, INSP, ARAY, ARII, JRJC, SCSC, CTCM, LSTR, SNCR, HERO, JOYG, DRIV, NTLS, SNP, PDC, PTEN, BZP, PTR, EDE, WYE, SWC, CLWR, HSTX, OFG, SIRF and FRME

Links of Interest

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Sector Performance
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Top 20 Biz Stories
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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US stocks rose the most in five years after the Fed’s second interest rate cut in nine days boosted banks, homebuilders and retailers.
- Asian Stocks Advance on Merger Speculation; Rio, Samsung Gain.
- Some Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) shareholders say the software maker’s $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO) may backfire and reduce its ability to compete with Google Inc.(GOOG) in Internet consumer services and advertising.
- Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are statistically tied for voter support nationwide, a Washington Post/ABC News poll found.
- Hillary Clinton said that if she’s elected president, she would make the decisions and that her husband, former President Bill Clinton, would play a supporting role.
- Ben S. Bernanke’s decision to lower interest rates 1.25 percentage points last month will end the dollar’s two-year slide, according to the world’s biggest currency traders.
- Presidential candidate Barack Obama said he can win votes in the November general election that Hillary Clinton, his Democratic opponent, can’t get.
- The yen fell against 15 of the 16 most-active currencies as a rally in Asian stocks prompted investors to purchase higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.
- Sharp Corp., Japan’s biggest maker of liquid-crystal displays, rose the most in more than six years in Tokyo trading after the company reported a record third-quarter profit, led by earnings from flat panels.
- The NY Giants beat New England 17-14 to win the Super Bowl and end the Patriots’ run at an undefeated season.

Wall Street Journal:
- Google(GOOG) Offers to Help Yahoo Fight Off Microsoft(MSFT).
- How to Lose $7.2 Billion: A Trader’s Tale. Kerviel Cooked Books, Skipped His Holidays; Calling in a Doctor.
- Goldman Hedges Political Bets. Executives Shelled Out For Clinton, Obama; Lesser Sums for GOP.

Barron’s:
- A recent study from the Treasury Department shows that there’s been a great and continuing degree of income mobility and income growth over the last two decades. Almost 58% of those in the lowest income quintile(the lowest 20% of returns) in 1996 were in a higher quintile by 2005. Almost half of them had moved up two or more quintiles, and 5% had moved into the top quintile. The middle quintile also did well. One-third stayed there, and 42% moved up, almost 13% to the top quintile. Just 7% moved to the bottom. The top quintile from 1995 saw almost one-third of its members drop to a lower income group.(And 58% of those in the top one percent had fallen to a lower income quintile in 2005.) Overall, 56% of the studied returns changed income quintiles in 10 years. Households didn’t just move relative to each other. Incomes increased 24% overall and increased across the income spectrum – except at the very top end. The increases were most dramatic in the lowest quintile. Their median real income increased by 90%, almost doubling in ten years. In the top quintile, median real income increased by 10% and decreased by almost 26% for the top one percent. Finally, every group’s median income increased more than in the previous decade – going up 30.2% from 1996-2005 versus a gain of 11.1% from 1987-1996.
- Yahoo(YHOO)-Microsoft(MSFT) May Lose Market Share.

NY Times:
- Bankers for Yahoo!(YHOO), the target of a $44.6 billion takeover bid by Microsoft(MSFT), are seeking other suitors, including AT&T(T) and News Corp.(NWS/A).
- The Iranian government barred a majority of opposition politicians from next month’s parliamentary elections in reaction to increasing protests against the regime because of a weak economy.
- Amid growing recession fears, it’s only natural that US investors are a little spooked. But how do you explain that foreign stocks are off to an even worse start in 2008?
- With the help of resources that have emerged online in recent years, investing in commercial real estate is easier and far more transparent than a decade ago.

CNBC.com:
- Extra Payments Can Trim Decade Off Your Mortgage.
- Internet Stocks Click, Says Analyst.
- Icahn Builds Big Stake in JC Penney(JCP): Report.
- Health Care Stocks: Whose Rx is Best?

MarketWatch.com:
- MBIA(MBI) shares rise; says it will keep AAA rating. CFO says bond insurer won’t go bankrupt, highlights liquidity.
- Exxon(XOM) profit builds on oil-patch blueprint. Replenishing reserves defines the bottom line.
- Storms suspend China’s fight against inflation. Central bank orders lenders to loosen credit as blizzards disrupt economy.

IBD:
- To ‘Google It’ Is To Search The Internet.

Business Week:
- 21 Names with Big Potential.
- Myths About Implantable Chips.
- Fueling the Solar Energy Boom.
- Japan Carmakers Ask: What Recession? Subprime, a rising yen, shrinking sales at home, and high oil prices aren’t hurting earnings at Honda, Nissan, and other Japanese auto companies.

AP:
- Wind Farms Need Techs to Keep Running.

USA Today:
- OPEC will not increase oil output as economy weakens.
- GM(GM) to show off hybrid pickup, concept truck.

CNNMoney.com:
- Here comes merger mania! Microsoft’s(MSFT) stunning $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo! Is just the beginning.

SmartMoney.com:
- Even if we are in a recession, the outlook for stocks remains good.
- Don’t Count Out the Stock Market.

Reuters:
- A long anticipated deal by Altria Group(MO) to buy smokeless tobacco company UST Inc.(UST) could be reached within months, but the price remains the toughest sticking point.
- Yahoos fear loss of fun-loving culture.
- Rio Tinto’s(RTP) chief waits for richer BHP(BHP) offer.
- Yahoo(YHOO) said it may take “quite a bit of time” to weigh its strategic options, including keeping the company independent, following Microsoft’s(MSFT) $45 billion offer to buy the company.
- Intel(INTC) poised for growth: Barron’s.
- Top-20 selling vehicles in US through January.

Financial Times:
- More than half of the UK’s richest people are planning to leave or cut their investments in the country, citing a report based on a poll of advisers to the wealthy. The report by the Society of Trust and Estate Practitioners say 2,741 of their clients want to leave the UK or sell their investments to escape new taxes to be introduced by the government in April targeting 5,200 so-called super rich with investable assets of more than $29.5 million.
- Banks link to solve bond insurers crisis.
- The US presidential candidates are heading towards the $1 billion mark in campaign fundraising, shattering records as Wall Street and corporate America pump cash into a race that started-early and has produced at least eight viable candidates.

Il Sole 24 Ore:
- Edison SpA, Italy’s second-biggest utility, plans to bid for a license to develop the Akkas gasfield in Iraq and has already submitted the necessary documentation for pre-selection.

Al-Watan:
- Agility, the Kuwait-based Middle East’s largest storage and logistics company, plans to start a new company in Iraq with local partners.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (DYN), (RJF) and (MTN).

Citigroup:
- Semi capex cuts have been in-line w/expectations; better than many feared – We now see C08 capex ~$54B or -13% Y/Y and actually slightly better than the $53.5B we saw coming into earnings season. DRAM capex has been about as expected but NAND has come in slightly higher than out model. Lastly despite big capex cuts many memory companies like Hynix are still claiming significant ’08 capacity growth. We think however there remains a big disconnect between these capacity plans and industry capex plans. We therefore think many memory companies will fall well short of capacity goals through the year which should yield better memory pricing.

Night Trading
Asian indices are +1.0% to +3.0% on avg.
S&P 500 futures +.11%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (BEAV)/.44
- (HUM)/1.32
- (ADM)/.71
- (WEN)/.24
- (NWS/A).28
- (RMBS)/.06
- (CSC)/.99
- (APC)/.76
- (SIRF)/.32
- (EFX)/.57
- (TMA)/.27
- (PPS)/.08
- (SOHU)/.34
- (SPF)/-1.02
- (YUM)/.42
- (ILMN)/.24
- (SNCR)/.20
- (LVS)/.34
- (CLX)/.58
- (AES)/.33

Upcoming Splits
- (MCRS) 2-for-1
- (CJR) 2-for-1
- (JASO) 3-for-1

Economic Data
10:00 am EST
- Factory Orders for December are estimated to rise 2.5% versus a 1.5% increase in November.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Kroszner speaking, Challenger Job Cuts report, (JAVA) analyst meeting, (MSFT) strategic update, Thomas Weisel Tech/Telecom/Internet Conference and CSFB Energy Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply higher, boosted by technology and mining shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.