Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Growth -1.49%

Sector Underperformers:

Coal (-6.76%), Homebuilders (-3.35%) and Gaming (-2.64%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

BLX, AZPN, SONO, ULBI, GPRO, RCRC, ALXN, BJRI, DRYS, EMKR, B, CMG, VMI and BLX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Value (-.13%)

Sector Outperformers:

Airlines (+2.36%), HMOs (+.52%) and I-Banks (+.35%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

PEET, CPB, HPQ, CI, CHA, CN, NPBC, STO, BMA, ALE, CGNX, EHTH, PCLN, AMMD, RADS, GIII, USTR, CENX, ASIA, SPSX, DRYS, GIFI, IPCR, IBKR, HANS, ANST, LUFK, WTW, AW and SDA

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Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The LA Times named Russ Stanton as editor, its fourth in less than three years after budget cuts drove out previous managers.
- Priceline.com(PCLN), the Internet travel agency, surged as much as 10% in Nasdaq extended trading after reporting fourth-quarter profit that rose more than analysts expected.
- DryShips Inc.(DRYS) reported the best quarter since it became a public company in 2005. The shares jumped 8.2% in after-hours trading.
- Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG) reported fourth-quarter profit less than analysts’ estimated. Sales jumped 31% to $288.9 million, however the shares fell 13% in after-hours trading.
- Tudor Investment Corp. purchased 300,000 shares of Google Inc.(GOOG) during the fourth quarter, making it the firm’s fifth largest long position, according to a recent SEC filing.
- Citadel LP purchased 601,630 shares of Apple Inc.(AAPL) during the fourth quarter, making it the firm’s sixth largest long position, according to a recent SEC filing. The firm also purchased 162,541 shares of Google Inc.(GOOG) during the fourth quarter, making it the firm’s seventh largest long position.

Wall Street Journal:
- Bernanke Open to a Sizable Rate Cut.

MarketWatch.com:
- Video game sales managed a modest gain in January, beating the expectations of analysts who predicted a decline for the month.
- Some Yahoo(YHOO) shareholders growing impatient.

CNBC.com:
- Bond Insurers MBIA, Ambac Dismiss Bailout Need.

NY Times:
- In figures released on Thursday covering 150 metropolitan areas, the National Assoc. of Realtors said that median home prices were falling in 77 markets – but still rising in 73.

BusinessWeek.com:
- Google’s(GOOG) Wireless Auction Play. Its apparent withdrawal from the wireless auction leaves the coveted C block to Verizon(VZ) and AT&T(T). They could all prove to be winners.
- The eagerly anticipated “God game” is almost ready, and Electronic Arts(ERTS) is finally taking the wraps off the title’s numerous innovations.
- Couples today are meeting, dating, and mating online, and using increasingly sophisticated matchmaking services to find the perfect spouse.

CNNMoney.com:
- Nanopants that might power an iPod.

Forbes.com:
- Best Cities for Bargain House-Hunters.

IBD:
- Merged Microsoft-Yahoo Would Still Struggle Vs. Google.

USA Today.com:
- Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that the USA will avoid a recession and suggested more interest rate cuts are likely.

Reuters:
- Fidelity parent buys Ambac(ABK), MBIA(MBI) stakes.
- Former Fed Chairman Greenspan told an energy conference on Thursday that high oil prices are harming the economy, but that the economy does not face stagflation.

Financial Times:
- Eliot Spitzer, NY governor, gave bond insurers three to five business days to find fresh capital, or face a potential break-up by state regulators who want to safeguard the municipal bond markets.

Mercury:
- The Australian Securities Exchange yesterday signaled that it would investigate allegations that hedge funds are colluding to push down the shares of major Australian companies. ASX head of supervision Eric Mayne yesterday said he would be investigating market rumors that hedge funds were working together in packs to target specific companies. Mr. Mayne also signaled that the ASX was keen for more regulation of the increasingly common practice of short-selling in the market, and would be looking at greater regulation of company directors who had big margin loans against their shares.

Economic Times:
- The New York Stock Exchange will buy a 5% stake in the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd., the nation’s biggest commodity bourse.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Maintained Buy on (GME), target $65.
- Maintained Sell on (FRO), target $25.
- Reiterated Buy on (GTIV), target $26.
- Reiterated Buy on (BRCD), added to Top Picks Live list, target $10.
- Reiterated Buy on (HS), target $29.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.50% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures -28%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.43%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ANF)/2.36
- (B)/.38
- (CPB)/.70
- (HRL)/.58
- (SJM)/.77
- (RDN)/-2.38
- (PPP)/.35

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Import Price Index for January is estimated to rise .5% versus unch. in December.
- Empire Manufacturing for February is estimated to fall to 6.5 versus 9.0 in January.

9:00 am EST
- Net Long-term TIC Flows for December are estimated at $73.5 billion versus $90.9 billion in November.

9:15 am EST
- Industrial Production for January is estimated to rise .1% versus unch. in December.
- Capacity Utilization for January is estimated to fall to 81.3% versus 81.4% in December.

10:00 am EST
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for February is estimated at 76.0 versus 78.4 in January.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Mishkin speaking, (KMT) analyst meeting and Deutsche Bank Small/Mid-cap Growth Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and financial stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Lows, Weighed Down by Tech, Retail, Airline and Financial Shares

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In Play

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rise in Oil, Profit-taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Semi longs, Software longs and Gaming longs. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The overall tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is declining and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising 2% today and remains high at 25.4. The ISE Sentiment Index is a very low 84.0 and the total put/call is an above-average .99 today. Tech stocks are under pressure on worries that PC growth is slowing after Goldman made negative comments on the industry and removed (INTC) from its Conviction Buy list. However, Goldman maintained its Buy rating on the stock. I think these worries are overdone at this point as most of these stocks’ valuations already reflect a significant slowdown. Today's tech sector weakness is likely more the result of profit-taking after recent sharp gains in many tech stocks. Retailers and airlines are under pressure from the jump in oil. Oil continues to move back near recent highs on massive investment fund speculation, despite a firmer dollar, decelerating global demand and record global production. Moody’s downgraded FGIC’s financial strength to A3 from Aaa. Moody’s still has (ABK) and (MBI) under review. However, they did say that in contrast to XL Capital Assurance and FGIC, MBIA and Ambac are better positioned from a capitalization and business franchise perspective. This may imply a downgrade is not forthcoming. (MBI)/(ABK) are soaring 10% and 17%, respectively. The AAII % Bulls fell to 33.3% this week, while the % Bears fell to 41.9%. Investor sentiment remains at historically depressed levels, which bodes very well for outsized gains over the intermediate-term. Nikkei futures indicate a down -106 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an up +23 open in Germany. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on bargain-hunting, less economic pessimism and short-covering.