Thursday, March 06, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs, seeking to sell 10 million iPhones this year, added business features to woo customers from the BlackBerry and will let outside developers create programs for the handset.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Tim Geithner said the central bank may need to keep interest rates low for a while if financial markets remain under stress and threaten economic growth.
- About 250,000 Americans in dozens of states, including Texas, NY and Florida, may benefit from higher limits on new loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, a Dept. of Housing and Urban Development said.
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) said February sales increased 2.6%, exceeding its forecast, after price cuts spurred demand for groceries, medicines and flat-screen televisions.
- Joy Global(JOYG) rose the most in more than two months in New York trading after it lifted its 2008 forecasts and first-quarter earnings topped analysts’ estimates.

- Addax Petroleum Corp., the Swiss producer with a focus on Africa and the Middle East, said a well drilled in Iraq’s Kurdistan yielded “very high” flows of oil.
- General Electric(GE) said it won its second contract with Chicago-based Invenergy Wind LLC for wind turbines valued at about $1 billion.

Wall Street Journal:
- Investor Wilbur Ross has purchased $1 billion of beaten-down municipal bonds, a sign that some large investors are snapping up there investments after a recent selloff, taking advantage of the woes of a number of hedge funds that have been forced to sell to try to stay afloat.
- Money-market funds are emerging as a potential white knight for some troubled auction-rate securities.
- Apple’s(AAPL) Time Capsule Gives You Easy Way To Back Up Wirelessly.

NY Times:
- Bliin, BuzzCity Pte. and other mobile social networking startups are developing applications to capture the 3.3 billion mobile phone users in the world.

BusinessWeek:
- Hedge Funds Frozen Shut. To buy time and stave off losses, more funds are blocking withdrawals.

AP:
- American men have doubled the amount of time they spend on housework sine the 1960s to compensate for chores left unattended as more women joined the workforce, citing a study.

Reuters:
- Some 2,000 US soldiers are being withdrawn from Baghdad as part of a planned reduction of US forces in Iraq.

Jerusalem Post:
- Poll: Most Israelis believe Clinton best for Israel. More than 60% said they would prefer Clinton over her rival Barack Obama for the Democratic candidacy, while only 16% said they wanted Obama to emerge victorius.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Mid-cap Value -2.33%

Sector Underperformers:

Airlines (-5.25%), Homebuilders (-4.15%) and Retail (-3.98%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

SJW, TONE, UDRL, OMRI, TWGP, CPHL, ATHN, PETM, ZUMZ, QSFT, CROX, BRKR, NLY, PBT, TCN, LDG and PAY

Jobless Claims Fall, Pending Home Sales Above Estimates

- Initial Jobless Claims for this week fell to 351K versus estimates of 360K and 375K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims rose to 2831K versus estimates of 2810K and 2802K prior.

- Pending Home Sales for January were unch. versus estimates of a 1.0% decline and an upwardly revised 1.2% decline in December.

BOTTOM LINE: The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits declined more than forecast last week to a six-week low, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 359,500 from 361,000 the prior week. The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, remained steady at a historically low 2.1%. Challenger job cuts, reported yesterday, were down 14.2% year-over-year in February. Jobless Claims are still not at levels indicating a US I expect the job market to improve to more healthy levels in the second half of the year. economic contraction.

The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes was unchanged in January, Bloomberg reported. Pending resales fell 6.1% in the South and 4.1% in the Northeast. They soared 13% in the West and rose .6% in the Midwest. Fed fund futures now imply a 78.0% chance for a 75 basis point cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, up from 54.0% yesterday. I still expect home sales to beat expectations this spring on pent-up demand, lower prices and lower mortgage rates.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Growth (-.39%)

Sector Outperformers:

Oil Service (+.41%), Construction (+.28%) and Software (-.12%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

ORCL, MDR, DDS, BBL, BHP, WMT, CNSL, PGI, SU, FHN, PCZ, TSRA, PDLI, MATK, DXPE, CMTL, JOYG, MELI, CSIQ, BRLI, NUVA, ALOG, GOLD, HWAY, FWRD, BUCY, RAVN, HMSY, CSGS, PBT, TCN, HL and EVY

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories

IBD Breaking News

Movers & Shakers

Upgrades/Downgrades

In Play

NYSE Unusual Volume

NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

DJIA Quick Charts

Chart Toppers

Intraday Chart/Quote

Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, one day after losing the Texas and Ohio primaries, signaled he would fight back more aggressively against attacks from rival Hillary Clinton.
- President Bush gave his formal endorsement to John McCain today as the man who will lead their party into the November general election.
- Iraq, holder of the world’s third-largest crude oil reserves, is in “advanced” negotiations with international companies to develop five oil fields.
- Thornburg Mortgage(TMA) Gets Default Notice, Stock Falls.

MarketWatch.com:
- Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer says the devices out there are a sign of “unprecedented demand” and aren’t bad for the company.
- Contrarians getting more cheerful. Recent events make them believe the stock market’s Jan. 22 low won’t be broken.

CNBC.com:
- Ambac Financial’s(ABK) $1 billion common stock offering, aimed at raising capital to maintain the bond insurer’s AAA rating, is “fully subscribed.”

NY Times:
- The world appears to be on the verge of a boom in a little-known but promising typoe fo solar power.

BusinessWeek.com:
- The On Point Group LLC announced today the addition of three top level speakers to its Investor & Hedge Fund Risk Summit, taking place on March 12th and 13th at the 3 West Club in New York City.
- Apple(AAPL) Goes Corporate. Jobs & Co. have a union between the consumer-friendly iPhone and Corporate America in mind.
- Costco(COST) and BJ’s(BJ) post solid sales growth even as other merchants falter. How have these big-box behemoths sidestepped the retail slowdown?

IBD:
- Adobe(ADBE) Betting On Its Abilities In Rich Internet Applications.
- ‘Mainframe Renaissance’ Sparks Growth Revival For BMC(BMC).

CNNMoney.com:
- Lawmakers take aim at CEO compensation.
- Intel(INTC): It’s not as bad as it looks.

SmartMoney:
- Tax Season Should Favor Intuit’s(INTU) Stock.

USA Today.com:
- Goldman(GS) bandwagon draws Wall Streeters.
- Mortgage applications up as rates plunge below 6%.
- Audi, other automakers want more US production.

Cambridge Energy Research:
- Yergin: Renewables Moving Toward Competitive Role in Energy Markets.

Reuters:
- Fed must act to stem crisis, Pianalto says.
- Terrible returns equal tiny inflows for hedge funds.

AP:
- The world’s largest wind-turbine maker officially opened its first US manufacturing plant Wednesday on Colorado’s northern plains, where it expects to produce blades for 600 turbines a year.


Financial Times:
- Hedge fund fears push up Libor rates.
- Hunter among hedge funds is now the hunted.
- Washington attacked OPEC on Wednesday for its refusal to increase oil production on Wednesday after an unexpected drop in US crude oil inventories pushed prices to a record high.

TimesOnline:
- Citic seeks bigger stake in Bear Stearns(BSC) after share price drops.
- Yahoo!(YHOO) sidesteps Microsoft(MSFT) coup attempt by switching shareholders’ deadline.
- Premier Wen Jiabao pledges to fight inflation gripping China.

International Herald Tribune:
- Israel test “suicide bomber-resistant” buses in Jerusalem, frequent bus attack target.

AFP:
- Nissan Motor Co. will release an electric vehicle in the US in 2010, two years before the automaker’s previously announced target, citing Nissan’s CEO.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Upgraded (FLR) to Buy, target $190.50.
- Maintained Buy on (XOM), target $110.
- Upgraded (MDR) to Buy, target $78.50.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +1.25% to +2.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.43%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.58%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (JOYG)/.62
- (URBN)/.29
- (BBI)/.19
- (NSM)/.25
- (ZQK)/-.10
- (COO)/.46
- (CPRT)/.40
- (MRVL)/.11
- (KFY)/.36

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- Initial Jobless Claims for this week are estimated to fall to 360K versus 373K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2810K versus 2807K prior.

10:00 am EST
- Pending Home Sales for January are estimated to fall 1.0% versus a 1.5% increase in December.

1:30 pm EST
- ICSC Chain Store Sales for February are estimated to rise .6% versus a .5% gain in January.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Poole speaking, Fed’s Rosengren speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory data, (SD) analyst meeting, (BNI) analyst meeting, (IBM) investor briefing, IT investor day, (JNPR) analyst meeting, (LMNX) investor day, (HRS) analyst meeting, Bear Stearns Retail/Restaurants/Consumer Conference, UBS Energy Conference and UBS Engineering/Construction Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply higher, boosted by commodity and automaker stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.