Wednesday, April 02, 2025

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.3 euros/megawatt-hour -2.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.8 +3.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.7 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.1 -.9 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.48 +.04:  Growth Rate +13.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.3 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.57% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.61 +.15: Growth Rate +21.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 28.1 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .08 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 28.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -3.7% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.7% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.49% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 57.6% (-4.7 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 44.0%(+6.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +215 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +176 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech/utility/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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