Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.03%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% -2.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 99.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.2 euros/megawatt-hour -4.0%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.2 unch.
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -6.9 -3.4 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.9 -.5 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(81 of 500 reporting) +6.1% -.7 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.97 -.24: Growth Rate +12.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 19.2 +.6
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% -2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +23.7% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.10 +.24: Growth Rate +20.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 26.7 +.9
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.67 -20.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.22 +55.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 12.7 unch.
- US Yield Curve 58.0 basis points (2s/10s) -7.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.2% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.1% -1.8 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.22 +9.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 59.9% (-3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 50.5%(-8.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +655 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +50 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +299 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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