Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.01%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.26% -6.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 97.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.4 euros/megawatt-hour -3.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index .9 +1.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -7.8 -.4 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.2 +.1 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(178 of 500 reporting) +17.6% +4.5 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.43 +.17: Growth Rate +12.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.9 +.4
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +43.2% +19.4 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 417.95 +.14: Growth Rate +20.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.2 +.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.26 +10.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .93 +1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.3 -.6
- US Yield Curve 50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.5% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.3% +1.7 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.35% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.23 +1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 57.4% (-.4 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 47.3%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +220 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +8 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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