Thursday, April 17, 2025

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on US/Global Trade Deal Hopes, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.26% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% +5.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.09%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.8 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .6 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.8 -1.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(58 of 500 reporting) +6.4% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.37 -.23:  Growth Rate +12.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 19.2 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.46% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 417.48 -.54: Growth Rate +20.7% -.2 percentage point, P/E 26.7 -.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.65 -15.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .66 -9.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 52.25 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.2% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.9% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% -4.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.21 +16.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +6.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 56.9% (-4.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 48.8%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +273 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -63 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +205 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility, consumer discretionary, industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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