Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @ElonMusk
  • Last week, Treasury went live with its first automated payment verification system. In total, $334 million in improper payment requests were identified and rejected due to: -Missing budget codes -Invalid budget codes (i.e. the payment was not linked to the budget) -Budget codes with no authorization (i.e. the budget had already been fully spent). This is a big deal.
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • THE INVISIBLE PUPPET MASTERS: AI'S DISTURBING NEW ROLE IN SHAPING MINDS. The revelation that University of Zurich researchers secretly deployed AI bots to manipulate Reddit users' opinions should chill anyone who values authentic human discourse. These weren't merely passive observers—they were digital persuaders that analyzed users' personal histories, fabricated identities, and crafted arguments specifically designed to change minds. Most troubling? 
  • TRUMP: PUTIN SAW WHAT HAPPENED WITH AFGHANISTAN AND WENT FOR UKRAINE. "I think if it weren't for me, he'd want the whole country. When I left, there was no chance this would happen. Biden got involved, and the war started. Putin saw Afghanistan—how incompetently others handled it. One of the greatest embarrassments in U.S. history." (video) 
  • TRUMP ON DOGE: WE FOUND A LOT OF FRAUD AND ENDED IT... SAVED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS. “We also found tremendous waste, fraud and abuse. As you know, we found a lot of fraud. There was a lot of fraud, fraudulent things were taking place, and we ended that, and those people are gonna be suffering because of it.” (video)
  • TRUMP: WE HAVE THOUSANDS OF MURDERERS WHO CAME IN ILLEGALLY. “I can't have a trial — a major trial — for every person that came in illegally. We have thousands of murderers that came in. They're gonna murder people. They already have murdered people in our country.” (video)
  • TRUMP: 11,888 MURDERERS CAME IN — SOME KILLED MORE THAN ONCE. “They were allowing people to come in from prisons, as you know, and you've heard me say it, but you've heard a lot of people say it. Prisons, mental institutions, gang members, murderers. We had many murderers—11,888. They think some murdered more than one person.” (video)
  • TRUMP: IN JUST THREE MONTHS, I’VE ALREADY STARTED FIXING BIDEN’S UNSUSTAINABLE TRADE DISASTER. "I've been here for three months. I've taken a trade deficit down to a number that's starting to get really good. What Biden did to this country—with open borders and every country ripping us off on trade—was not sustainable." (video)
  • TRUMP: WE WERE LOSING $5B A DAY ON TRADE—TARIFFS FIXED IT WITHOUT INFLATION. "This is what I campaigned on. We were losing $3 to $5 billion a day on trade—$1.5 to $2 trillion a year. I could’ve left it that way, but it would’ve led to an implosion. We had the best economy, no inflation, and took hundreds of billions from China in tariffs. We had to fix it." 
  • TRUMP: NO CUTS TO MEDICARE, SOCIAL SECURITY, OR MEDICAID — WE’RE INVESTING MORE. “We will always protect Medicare and Social Security for our great seniors with no cuts, and we will defend Medicaid for those great people who are in need. House Republicans are working to invest more money in Medicaid than we spend today.” 
  • TRUMP: NVIDIA, TSMC, AMAZON ARE POURING HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS INTO THE U.S. "My friend Jensen from Nvidia — they're spending, you know what Nvidia is? They're spending $500 billion. TSMC, the biggest chipmaker in the world by far from Taiwan — they're spending $200 billion in the United States. Amazon, $21 billion. Johnson & Johnson, $55 billion. The Mac, $20 billion. Merck, General Motors are putting in billions and billions of dollars, and many other companies.” (video)
  • @mercoglianos
  • @catturd
  • New Canadian PM Mark Carney: "We have an enormous opportunity to bring climate change into the heart of every financial decision." "We can deliver the net zero world that you've demanded, and that our future generations deserve." An entire country about to be destroyed over a hoax. (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @Liz_Churchill10
  • @VigilantFox
  • @goddeketal
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.75 +1.0 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 59.0 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.83 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.8 +.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.16% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.6 +.8%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.06%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.39%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.59%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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