Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Friday, June 20, 2008
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Thursday, June 19, 2008
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- New Short-selling Targets on the NYSE. Here are the 25 NSYE stocks with the largest increase in short interest relative to their floats during the first two weeks of June:
- Moody’s Investors Service stripped MBIA Inc.(MBI) and Ambac Financial Corp.(ABK) of their Aaa, following Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor’s, ending the bond insurers’ run of at least two decades at the top of the ratings scale.
- South Korea, the world’s fifth-biggest crude oil buyer, cut oil-produce use in May by 1.4 percent from a year earlier as higher prices curbed demand. Crude oil imports in May were revised to 76 million barrels, down 2.6 percent from 78 million a year earlier.
- India, Asia’s biggest supplier of soybean meal, may plant a record soybean crop for a second year after prices rose to all-time highs and as early rainfall increases sowing.
- Crude oil fell for a second day in NY, extending a decline of more than $4 a barrel yesterday on speculation demand will fall as China raises fuel prices.
- Wheat Falls on ‘Phenomenal’ Winter-Crop Yields in Oklahoma.
Wall Street Journal:
- Beijing Continues Search for Balance on Olympic Beam. TV Media Complain Of a Lack of Access; NBC’s Finesses Game.
- Planned Yahoo(YHOO) Reorganization May Spark Executive Departures.
MarketWatch.com:
- China Mobile told to get 100 million users for home-grown 3G.
- Firefox heats up new browser war against Microsoft. Software giant updating Internet Explorer to keep pace with rival, industry.
Portfolio.com:
- Hedge Funds in Crosshairs. Why charges in Bear Stearns(BSC) case may be just the beginning.
Reuters:
- Bank of America(BAC) expects to complete its acquisition of mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp.(CFC) by July 1.
- Short interest on the NYSE soared 7.4% to 17,654,000,000 shares during the first two weeks of June, rising to another new record high as investors increased bets against financial firms.
Financial Times:
- The past few days have been among the longest days in the short history of stock market trading in China. On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite closed at 2,748, down 6.5% on the day and off more than 50% from the market’s peak last October. According to one recent poll conducted by Chinese television, more than 80 per cent of those surveyed said the government was at fault for their market losses. Some stock market analysts say this kind of talk creates a self-perpetuating cycle where punters bet on what the government will do next, rather than on fundamentals. But most analysts think the government has little room for maneuver, and that any state action is likely to have only a short-lived effect on the market. Inflation, the related impact on corporate profits and the high price of crude oil are likely to continue to depress the market whatever the government does - while the index could well fall further before reaching bottom.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (UTHR), target $130.
- Reiterated Buy on (CAG), target $33.
- Downgraded (IRF) to Sell, target $22.
Raymond James:
- Rated (SFSF) Strong Buy, target $17.
- Rated (RNOW) Strong Buy, target $20.50.
Wachovia:
- Rated (UPS) Outperform, target $82.50.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.16%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.
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- (WGO)/.03
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The BIO International Convention and (WU) investor conference could also impact trading today.
Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted by Transport, Technology, Retail, REIT, Biotech and Hospital Shares
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In Play
Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Plunge in Oil, Less Economic Pessimism, Reveral Higher in Financials
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, will raise the prices of gasoline and diesel by 17-18%, starting tomorrow, the National Development and Reform Commission said. The nation will also raise jet fuel prices by 25%. China will also raise electricity prices. The country must cut energy use by at least 5% for every unit of gross domestic product annually for the next three years, said Yang Tiesheng, director of the commission’s energy efficiency division, said. “It is an extremely difficult target to meet, but I’m optimistic that the government will achieve it by making the utmost effort,” he said. The country cut energy use by 2.62% for every 10,000 yuan of GDP in the first quarter compared with a year earlier. The government aims to cut energy use by 20% for each unit of GDP in 2010 from 2005 levels. The government is also considering so-called environmental tax, a new levy on auto fuels and changes to existing taxes on natural-resource use.
- Chinese oil demand growth will be reduced by about a third following the government’s decision to raise fuel prices, according to Merrill Lynch(MER). “We’re going to get some demand destruction,” the analyst said.
- Former Bear Stearns hedge fund managers Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin, arrested this morning at their homes in New Jersey and Manhattan, were indicted for mail fraud and conspiracy in the first prosecution stemming from a federal investigation of last year’s mortgage market collapse.
- Citadel Investment Group, Tudor Investment Corp. and at least 20 rival hedge funds are taking advantage of job cuts and pay reductions on Wall Street to recruit top performers and expand into new businesses.
- Crude oil is plunging almost $5/bbl. on concerns over falling global demand, rising supplies and a firmer US dollar.
- Blackstone Group LP(BX) agreed to buy Apria Healthcare Group(AHG) for about $920 million after the stock was beaten down by concern that cutbacks in US government health-insurance programs will crimp profits.
- Republican presidential candidate John McCain will push to almost double the number of nuclear reactors in the US as part of a broad plan to address the nation’s energy woes.
- BB&T Corp.(BBT) said it expects “some increases in the cash dividend during 2008.”
- China’s stocks plunged, resuming a decline that’s wiped out $1.2 trillion of market value, on renewed concerns the government will concentrate on measures to curb consumer prices rather than bolster equities.
CNBC.com:
- Power Poll: Should the Government Open Offshore Oil Drilling? 81% Yes. 16% No.
Folha de S. Paulo:
- Brazilian Presient Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is considering budget cuts and measures to slow lending growth to help curb inflation.
Bear Radar
Style Underperformer:
Large-cap Value -.92%
Sector Underperformers:
HMOsirlind (-7.70%), Banks (-2.91%) and Coal (-1.61%)
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
BBT, STI, HNT, MOH, BAC, LKQX, CLNE, PENN, SYNA, CVH, HBI, SJM and FSF
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) HBI 2) LRCX 3) MOT 4) HBAN 5) HNT