Friday, November 01, 2024

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Pre-Election Window-Dressing, Medical/Airlines Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.02 -.39%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.51% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.04%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.20 euros/megawatt-hour -3.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.7 -6.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.7 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.1 +.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(351 of 500 reporting) +8.7% -.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.44 -.17:  Growth Rate +15.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.70% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% +1.0 percentage point
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 373.03 +.61: Growth Rate +31.2% +.4 percentage point, P/E 31.6 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 -21.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.10 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 15.5 basis point (2s/10s) +4.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.32% -34.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.8% -4.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 81.9%(+6.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 47.6%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +647 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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