Wednesday, November 06, 2024

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Decisive Trump/GOP Victories, Lessoned Mid-East Regional War Fears, Diminished US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.10 -.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.54% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.60 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.39 euros/megawatt-hour -.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.6 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.1 +11.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.8 -.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(400 of 500 reporting) +6.8% -.7 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.55 -.06:  Growth Rate +15.0% unch., P/E 22.0 +.5
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.54% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.29 +.19: Growth Rate +32.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +11.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.10 +7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 16.0 basis point (2s/10s) +7.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.38% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.6% -3.6 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +10.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 70.6%(-6.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 53.8%(+6.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +520 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +141 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, took profits in biotech sector longs and added financial sector longs
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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