Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 -.36%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.54% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.9%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.0 +1.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.0 -31.8 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.4 +2.1 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(477 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.70 +.41: Growth Rate +13.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% +2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 381.48 +1.44: Growth Rate +34.0% +.5 percentage point, P/E 32.5 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.05 +4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .98 -3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 3.5 basis point (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.9% -.4 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 51.6%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 43.8%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +271 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +81 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/financial/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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