Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.9 -.24%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.52% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.7 euros/megawatt-hour +3.1%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -.1 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.7 +2.0 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.9 +1.8 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(453 of 500 reporting) +7.1% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.04 +.02: Growth Rate +15.1% -1.5 percentage points, P/E 22.4 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.52% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.54 unch.: Growth Rate +34.0% -3.3 percentage points, P/E 32.9 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.10 +25.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.51 -5.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 4.5 basis point (2s/10s) -7.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.5% unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 55.5%(+2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 39.6%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +222 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -69 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +65 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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