Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.05 -.6%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.2 +1.5 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.7 +.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.7 -.2 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(453 of 500 reporting) +7.1% -.7 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.02 -.54: Growth Rate +16.6% +1.6 percentage points, P/E 22.4 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.53% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.54 +.09: Growth Rate +37.3% +5.1 percentage points, P/E 32.9 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 -14.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 +27.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 4.5 basis point (2s/10s) -7.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.5% +1.6 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 54.1%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 41.3%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -310 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -305 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +95 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/industrial/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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