Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Seasonality, Pharma/Utility Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 -.3%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.50% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.0 -6.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.8 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.3 +.4 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(481 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.96 +.07:  Growth Rate +13.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.3 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.59% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 382.04 +.17: Growth Rate +34.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 +.4 point
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.28 +54.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 4.75 basis point (2s/10s) +5.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.3% +3.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 57.5%(+6.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 43.3%(+.9 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -77 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -33 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +72 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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