Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 -.2%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.8 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.6 -1.5 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 13.9 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 -.3 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(470 of 500 reporting) +6.6% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.19 +.17: Growth Rate +15.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.59% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 379.58 +.58: Growth Rate +33.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.6 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.04 unch.
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .99 -47.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 10.0 basis point (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.3% -1.4 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 50.9%(-3.1 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 41.5%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -185 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -40 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
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