Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.8 -.01%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.52% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.03%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.7 euros/megawatt-hour -2.6%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.1 -1.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.1 unch.
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.3 -.3 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(467 of 500 reporting) +6.7% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.02 +.16: Growth Rate +15.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.9 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 379.0 +.24: Growth Rate +33.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.5 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.04 +3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.46 -12.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 10.25 basis point (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% +5.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.7% +2.9 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% -1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 54.5%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 40.0%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -119 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -47 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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