Monday, November 04, 2024

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Escalating US Election Integrity Concerns, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Mid-East Regional War Worries, Airline/Restaurant Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.11 +.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.51% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.13%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.30 euros/megawatt-hour +2.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.9 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.2 +2.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(361 of 500 reporting) +8.3% -.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.70 +.26:  Growth Rate +15.1% -.2 percentage point, P/E 21.2 -.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% -10.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 375.52 +2.49: Growth Rate +31.9% +.7 percentage point, P/E 31.1 -.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 +10.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.16 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 13.25 basis point (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.32% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.6% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 81.7%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 46.3%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +456 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +85 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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