Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.20 +.25%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% +2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.01%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.49 euros/megawatt-hour +.47%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.8 +3.9 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.9 -.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.6 +.8 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(384 of 500 reporting) +7.5% -.8 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.61 -.09: Growth Rate +15.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.3
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% -2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.10 +.58: Growth Rate +32.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.6 +.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.03 -13.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 8.25 basis point (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.38% +6.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.2% -.4 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 75.7%(-3.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 47.0%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +530 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +60 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/utility/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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