Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 -.2%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.54% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.7 -2.9 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.8 -2.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.7 -.1 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(473 of 500 reporting) +8.2% +1.6 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.29 +.10: Growth Rate +12.9% -2.4 percentage points, P/E 22.0 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +33.3% +7.6 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 380.04 +.46: Growth Rate +33.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.5 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.01 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +2.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 7.75 basis point (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.3% unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.5%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 43.0%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +254 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +100 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/consumer discretionary/financial/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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