Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Consumer Discretionary/Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 -.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.50% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.07%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.3 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.1 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.4 +.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +6.9% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.33 +.14:  Growth Rate +14.0% -.9 percentage point, P/E 22.4 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% +7.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 377.49 +.27: Growth Rate +32.6% -.4 percentage point, P/E 33.3 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.17 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.40 -58.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 16.75 basis point (2s/10s) +7.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 31.7% -1.1 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 60.2%(+6.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 46.7%(+10.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +206 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -69 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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