Thursday, November 07, 2024

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Mostly Dovish Fed Commentary, Lower Long-Term Rates, China Stimulus Hopes, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.3 +.5%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.3 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.7 +.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.5 -1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.5 +.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(435 of 500 reporting) +7.8% +1.0 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.56 +.01:  Growth Rate +15.0% unch., P/E 22.2 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.53% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.45 +.16: Growth Rate +32.2% unch., P/E 33.0 +.8
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .99 +26.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.29 +19.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 11.5 basis point (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% +7.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.9% +.3 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 52.6%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 45.1%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +293 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +300 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +165 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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