Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.3 +.5%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.3 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.7 +.1 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.5 -1.6 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.5 +.3 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(435 of 500 reporting) +7.8% +1.0 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.56 +.01: Growth Rate +15.0% unch., P/E 22.2 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.53% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.45 +.16: Growth Rate +32.2% unch., P/E 33.0 +.8
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .99 +26.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.29 +19.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 11.5 basis point (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% +7.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.9% +.3 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 52.6%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 45.1%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +293 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +300 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +165 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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