Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 +.1%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.51% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 99.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.8%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.4 +.1 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.1 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 0.0 -1.1 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(462 of 500 reporting) +6.8% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.86 +.23: Growth Rate +15.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 378.76 +.47: Growth Rate +33.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.01 -6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.58 -4.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 12.75 basis point (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.53% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 31.8% +.3 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.71% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.0%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 38.6%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +150 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment