Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Volume: Above Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 15.0 -1.6%
- DJIA Intraday % Swing .97 -5.8%
- Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.4 -.9%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 180.0 +.44%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.46%
- CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.2 +2.3%
- ISE Sentiment Index 165.0 +35.0 points
- Total Put/Call .74 -11.9%
- NYSE Arms 1.50 +59.5%
- NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$169.0M
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.2 -.8%
- US Energy High-Yield OAS 288.3 +1.1%
- Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 188 -1
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.0 +.3%
- Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 158.8 -.36%
- Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 126.0 basis points unch.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.3 -.73%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 157.5 -1.2%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 117.1 -2.0%
- China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 -.06%
- 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
- 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -3.0 basis points -.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.5 basis point
- MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 -4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 646.0 -4.0 basis points
- Avg. Auto ABS OAS 47.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 +.19%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 102.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.5%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.0 -3.0 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.1 -2.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .9 -.5 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(477 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.89 +.19: Growth Rate +13.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.59% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 381.87 +.39: Growth Rate +34.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 -.2 point
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 -24.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .74 -24.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve -.5 basis point (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.0% -.9 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -5.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.1%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 41.9%(-1.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +70 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -42 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/financial/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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