Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 -.06%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.51% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 98.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.2 euros/megawatt-hour +5.9%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.7 +.4 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.4 -1.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.0 +.4 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(461 of 500 reporting) +6.8% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.37 +.04: Growth Rate +15.2% +1.2 percentage points, P/E 22.2 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 377.73 +.24: Growth Rate +33.2% +.6 percentage point, P/E 33.1 -.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 +7.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 7.75 basis point (2s/10s) -9.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.4% +.7 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% +2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.71% +15.0 basis points.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 54.0%(-7.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 40.8%(+9.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +425 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -77 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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