Thursday, June 19, 2008

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- New Short-selling Targets on the NYSE. Here are the 25 NSYE stocks with the largest increase in short interest relative to their floats during the first two weeks of June:
- Moody’s Investors Service stripped MBIA Inc.(MBI) and Ambac Financial Corp.(ABK) of their Aaa, following Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor’s, ending the bond insurers’ run of at least two decades at the top of the ratings scale.
- South Korea, the world’s fifth-biggest crude oil buyer, cut oil-produce use in May by 1.4 percent from a year earlier as higher prices curbed demand. Crude oil imports in May were revised to 76 million barrels, down 2.6 percent from 78 million a year earlier.
- India, Asia’s biggest supplier of soybean meal, may plant a record soybean crop for a second year after prices rose to all-time highs and as early rainfall increases sowing.
- Crude oil fell for a second day in NY, extending a decline of more than $4 a barrel yesterday on speculation demand will fall as China raises fuel prices.
- Wheat Falls on ‘Phenomenal’ Winter-Crop Yields in Oklahoma.

Wall Street Journal:
- Beijing Continues Search for Balance on Olympic Beam. TV Media Complain Of a Lack of Access; NBC’s Finesses Game.
- Planned Yahoo(YHOO) Reorganization May Spark Executive Departures.

MarketWatch.com:
- China Mobile told to get 100 million users for home-grown 3G.
- Firefox heats up new browser war against Microsoft. Software giant updating Internet Explorer to keep pace with rival, industry.

Portfolio.com:
- Hedge Funds in Crosshairs. Why charges in Bear Stearns(BSC) case may be just the beginning.

USA Today.com:
- The girlfriend of missing hedge fund swindler Samuel Israel III was arrested Thursday and charged with helping him elude his sentence on the day he was supposed to begin serving 20 years in prison.

Reuters:
- Bank of America(BAC) expects to complete its acquisition of mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp.(CFC) by July 1.
- Short interest on the NYSE soared 7.4% to 17,654,000,000 shares during the first two weeks of June, rising to another new record high as investors increased bets against financial firms.

Financial Times:
- The past few days have been among the longest days in the short history of stock market trading in China. On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite closed at 2,748, down 6.5% on the day and off more than 50% from the market’s peak last October. According to one recent poll conducted by Chinese television, more than 80 per cent of those surveyed said the government was at fault for their market losses. Some stock market analysts say this kind of talk creates a self-perpetuating cycle where punters bet on what the government will do next, rather than on fundamentals. But most analysts think the government has little room for maneuver, and that any state action is likely to have only a short-lived effect on the market. Inflation, the related impact on corporate profits and the high price of crude oil are likely to continue to depress the market whatever the government does - while the index could well fall further before reaching bottom.

TimesOnline:
- Hedge funds are continuing to feel the full force of the credit crunch, with 170 funds forced into liquidation during the first quarter, a Chicago research firm reported yesterday. The bleak figures published by Hedge Fund Research also showed that fewer funds were launched over the three-month period than at any time since 2000.

The Australian:
- Telstra belatedly joining the iPhone circus. Telstra will join Optus and Vodafone in launching the new 3G version of Apple’s(AAPL) new iPhone here in July and Telstra chief Sol Trujillo may make an announcement next week.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (UTHR), target $130.
- Reiterated Buy on (CAG), target $33.
- Downgraded (IRF) to Sell, target $22.

Raymond James:
- Rated (SFSF) Strong Buy, target $17.
- Rated (RNOW) Strong Buy, target $20.50.

Wachovia:
- Rated (UPS) Outperform, target $82.50.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.16%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (WGO)/.03

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The BIO International Convention and (WU) investor conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by energy shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted by Transport, Technology, Retail, REIT, Biotech and Hospital Shares

Evening Review
Market Summary
Top 20 Biz Stories

Today’s Movers

Market Performance Summary

WSJ Data Center

Sector Performance

ETF Performance

Style Performance

Commodity Movers

Market Wrap CNBC Video
(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View

Timely Economic Charts

GuruFocus.com

PM Market Call

After-hours Commentary

After-hours Movers

After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask

After-hours Stock Quote

After-hours Stock Chart

In Play

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Plunge in Oil, Less Economic Pessimism, Reveral Higher in Financials

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Computer longs, Alternative Energy longs, Medical longs, Biotech longs and Software longs. I added to my (WMS) and (NUAN) longs and took some profits in another long today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is mildly higher, most sectors are rising and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling 4.6% and remains above average at 21.18. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 115.0 and the total put/call is above average at 1.06. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day and is currently .85. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 4.5% today to 80.0 basis points. This is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5th, but still down from 129.46 basis points on March 20th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising 4.4% today to 113.48. The TED spread is rising 2.2% today to .91 basis points. On the positive side, the (XLF) has trimmed losses meaningfully as it attempts to push into positive territory. Transport, tech and medical tech shares are very strong today with many posting 3%+ gains. Growth shares are substantially outperforming value stocks again today. Over the last five days, small-cap growth stocks are 3.4% higher, while large-cap value shares are .4% lower. I continue to believe that growth stocks will outperform value for several more years. The AAII % Bulls rose to 32.3% and the % Bears fell to 45.7%. Overall investor pessimism remains intense. A convincing break below $130/bbl. in oil would likely lead to a more broad-based and powerful rally. Right now, the overwhelming majority of investors think any sharp decline in oil will be met with a sharp rise the very next day. A break below $118/bbl. would likely spur a significant rally in the broad US stock market. Nikkei futures indicate an +155 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +43 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on bargain-hunting, lower energy prices, less economic pessimism and short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, will raise the prices of gasoline and diesel by 17-18%, starting tomorrow, the National Development and Reform Commission said. The nation will also raise jet fuel prices by 25%. China will also raise electricity prices. The country must cut energy use by at least 5% for every unit of gross domestic product annually for the next three years, said Yang Tiesheng, director of the commission’s energy efficiency division, said. “It is an extremely difficult target to meet, but I’m optimistic that the government will achieve it by making the utmost effort,” he said. The country cut energy use by 2.62% for every 10,000 yuan of GDP in the first quarter compared with a year earlier. The government aims to cut energy use by 20% for each unit of GDP in 2010 from 2005 levels. The government is also considering so-called environmental tax, a new levy on auto fuels and changes to existing taxes on natural-resource use.
- Chinese oil demand growth will be reduced by about a third following the government’s decision to raise fuel prices, according to Merrill Lynch(MER). “We’re going to get some demand destruction,” the analyst said. China will likely have to increase prices further as fuel costs in the country remain significantly below international levels, he added.
- Former Bear Stearns hedge fund managers Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin, arrested this morning at their homes in New Jersey and Manhattan, were indicted for mail fraud and conspiracy in the first prosecution stemming from a federal investigation of last year’s mortgage market collapse.
- Citadel Investment Group, Tudor Investment Corp. and at least 20 rival hedge funds are taking advantage of job cuts and pay reductions on Wall Street to recruit top performers and expand into new businesses.
- Crude oil is plunging almost $5/bbl. on concerns over falling global demand, rising supplies and a firmer US dollar.
- Blackstone Group LP(BX) agreed to buy Apria Healthcare Group(AHG) for about $920 million after the stock was beaten down by concern that cutbacks in US government health-insurance programs will crimp profits.
- Republican presidential candidate John McCain will push to almost double the number of nuclear reactors in the US as part of a broad plan to address the nation’s energy woes.
- BB&T Corp.(BBT) said it expects “some increases in the cash dividend during 2008.”
- China’s stocks plunged, resuming a decline that’s wiped out $1.2 trillion of market value, on renewed concerns the government will concentrate on measures to curb consumer prices rather than bolster equities.

NY Times:
- Obama Campaign Guards Canadidate’s Image, Media Access. The strategy, which at times appears to go against Obama’s pledge to be transparent, comes as the media try to increase access to the candidate.

CNBC.com:
- Power Poll: Should the Government Open Offshore Oil Drilling? 81% Yes. 16% No.

Cambridge Energy Research:
- “Peak Demand” – US Gasoline Demand Likely Peaked in 2007. Gasoline demand in the US may have reached its peak, as rising prices lead consumers to make long-term decisions that will weaken demand in the years to come, according to a new analysis by Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

CNN:
- An Arab-American civil rights group sent a letter to Barack Obama asking him to personally respond to reports Wednesday that two women were denied the opportunity to stand behind the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee on stage at a campaign event because they were wearing traditional Muslim head scarves. The Obama campaign moved quickly Wednesday to defuse the situation by stating the incidents did not reflect campaign policy. "It is offensive and counter to Obama's commitment to bring Americans together and simply not the kind of campaign we run. We sincerely apologize for this behavior," said spokesman Bill Burton, in a statement sent to reporters Wednesday afternoon.

AFP:
- Saudi Arabia said today it planned to increase oil output by 200,000 barrels per day. Thursday’s release did not specify when the additional production would begin, but it will bring Saudi Arabia’s total crude output to 9.65 million bpd. Saudi Arabia had ramped up output by 300,000 bpd last month following a visit by President Bush.

Folha de S. Paulo:
- Brazilian Presient Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is considering budget cuts and measures to slow lending growth to help curb inflation.

Gulftimes.com:
- Lured by tax-free jobs and cheap living, foreign workers have long gravitated to wealthy Gulf Arab states to earn a better living, but rising costs are now forcing many to go home.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Large-cap Value -.92%

Sector Underperformers:

HMOsirlind (-7.70%), Banks (-2.91%) and Coal (-1.61%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

BBT, STI, HNT, MOH, BAC, LKQX, CLNE, PENN, SYNA, CVH, HBI, SJM and FSF

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) HBI 2) LRCX 3) MOT 4) HBAN 5) HNT