Stocks Finish Sharply Lower, Weighed Down by Airline, Gaming, Technology, Steel, Financial Shares

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Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rising Oil, Global Growth Concerns, Financial Sector Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Gaming longs, Alternative Energy longs and Software longs. I added (IWM/QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, every sector is declining and volume is heavy. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is very bearish. The VIX is rising 8.1% and remains above average at 23.32. The ISE Sentiment Index is depressed at 78.0 and the total put/call is very high at 1.22. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running very high most of the day and is currently 1.74. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 7.8% today to 85.9 basis points. This is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but still down from 129.46 basis points on March 20^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising 5.5% today to 120.4. The TED spread is rising 6.9% today to .96 basis points. On the positive side, the Regional Bank Index(KRX) is trading like it is washed out. (STI) just affirmed its first quarter credit and capital outlook and said it didn’t plan on cutting the dividend or issuing additional shares. The stock is surging 10% from session lows. Despite the rise in oil today, the 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is down 3 basis points to 2.47%. This is also down 12 basis points in 9 days. Investor angst is reaching very elevated levels again, which is always a necessary component to a tradable bottom, which could materialize at any moment. The parabolic rise in short interest, combined with recent stock declines, should give the many bears itchy trigger fingers to take some profits, as well. However, I still think it will take a meaningful reversal lower in commodities before the broad US market can mount a sustainable rally. One of my longs, (ILMN) continues to trade very well and is seeing a 663% spike in call option activity today. Nikkei futures indicate a -140 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +44 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on bargain-hunting and short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Freddie Mac to treat MGIC, PMI, Radian as Type I insurers, says plan will help insurers regain AA ratings.
- The IMF said the US economic slump has been shallower than estimated and warned the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates “quickly” to contain inflation. IMF economists raised their forecast for US growth next year to 2% from 1.6%.
- Energy-Book Frenzy Is Sign of Speculation in Oil, Birinyi Says. New books on oil and energy investing are being published at the fastest rate in almost 40 years, a sign speculators are contributing to the rally in crude prices, according to Birinyi Associates. ``The conversation at dinner parties now is about oil prices,'' Rubin said in a phone interview from the research and money-management firm's office in Westport, Connecticut. ``When you find the interest is getting overly robust, it tends to be a cautionary note, as you saw with real estate.'' The last time a similar pattern arose was in books on real- estate investing three years ago, just before U.S. housing starts began a 57 percent tumble to the lowest level in 17 years, Birinyi's data show. Crude rose 676 percent since trading at $17.45 a barrel in November 2001 as demand from China and India increased, violence in Nigeria and Iraq reduced supplies and the U.S. dollar declined. Investors added about $250 billion to commodity index trading strategies from the end of 2003 through March.
- India, China Face Faster Inflation, Higher Rates. India’s inflation accelerated to a 13-year high and economists forecast higher consumer prices in China after record crude oil forced both nations to increase the regulated cost of fuel. India’s wholesale prices jumped 11.05% in the week to June 7, more than the median 9.79% increase in a Bloomberg News survey.
- Crude oil is rising more than $3/bbl. on a weaker US dollar and Iranian nuclear facility attack worries.
- Mexico’s central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate, ignoring suggestions by President Felipe Calderon that borrowing costs were too high.
- Google Inc.(GOOG) may have some unlikely allies in defending its proposed partnership with Yahoo!(YHOO): the very advertisers that critics say may be hurt by the deal.
- General Motors(GM), Ford(F) and Chrysler credit ratings may be lowered by S&P on concern that higher gas prices are inflicting “financial damage” on the auto industry.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank would consider further US acquisitions or infusing other lenders with capital if the opportunity was right, CEO Edmund Clark said.

Wall Street Journal:
- Overseas Offerings Cut Into US Returns.
- Obama Turns FDR Upside Down. A high-income entrepreneur would see his or her federal marginal tax rate rise to 53% from 37.7% under Sen. Obama's tax plan. He proposes a 4.6 percentage point hike in the personal income tax rate, a loss of some itemized deductions, and a 12.4 percentage point hike in the Social Security payroll tax. This would take a successful entrepreneur's effective marginal tax rate higher than what it was under Jimmy Carter or Richard Nixon, when the maximum tax on an entrepreneur was 50%.
- The ‘Idle’ Oil Field Fallacy. A bill introduced in Congress this week would “compel” oil and natural gas companies to produce from federal lands they are leasing. These lawmakers ask why oil and gas companies want more access to federal lands to drill if they aren’t using all of the 68 million acres they already have? Anyone with even the most basic understanding of how oil and natural gas are produced – and this should include many members of Congress – knows that claims of “idle” leases are a diversionary feint.

CNBC:
- JPMorgan(JPM) May Be Interested In Wachovia(WB) Bid.

NY Times:
- China Presses Injured Athletes in Quest for Gold.
- The demand for fuel-efficient small cars and hybrids is so fierce that automakers cannot produce them fast enough.

USA Today:
- Millions more could get a rebate – if they file a return. Even as the IRS has sent out nearly 77 million tax rebates, more than 5 million retirees and disabled veterans who may qualify for a rebate haven’t received one because they haven’t filed a tax return, IRS Commissioner Douglas Shulman said.

NY Post:
- Fortress Investment Group is considering adding another $1 billion to the war chest it’s amassed to take advantage of the pain being felt on Wall Street. Fortress’ fund likely will look to purchase debt including securities such as mortgage-tainted collateralized debt obligations and leveraged loans that have been stuck on bank balance sheets.

Philadelphia Inquirer:
- Philadelphia Councilman Darrell Clarke yesterday proposed a zoning change to allow construction of the American Commerce Center, a tower that would be the nation’s tallest building.

Advertising Age:
- It looks like 2008 will not go down as the year marketers relied less on TV after all. After the broadcast upfront wrapped last week with a surprisingly strong $9.2 billion haul, the cable and syndication upfront markets – both expected to be about 80% wrapped this week and completely finished by July 4 – have posted even more significant increases. Cable is likely to have increased between 10% and 15% to $7.5 billion up from last year’s take of $6.9 billion, according to several key buyers, sellers and analysts.

Kommersant:
- Cement prices in the Moscow area fell about 10% in June to an average of $183 a metric ton as construction slowed and lower tariffs increased supplies of imports, citing statistics by industry groups. Construction during the first quarter this year in Russia’s Central Federal District fell 9% in comparison to the same period last year.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Growth -1.58%

Sector Underperformers:

Airlinesirlind (-5.81%), Gaming (-3.90%) and Disk Drives (-2.72%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

WGO, SNP, PODD, BWLD, SNDK, LOGI, TEN and FSF

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) ETFC 2) PBG 3) XMSR 4) GRA 5) CSE

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Mid-cap Value (-.94%)

Sector Outperformers:

Oil Service (+.59%), Banks (+.17%) and Construction (-.31%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

ESI, PCU, USB, OZRK, EXLS, FITB, JRCC, GROW, ASBC, GMXR, NWPX, UBSI, OSBC, SMTS, ENER, ASEI, NTRS, SBNY, ROYL, FELE, TRMK, SRDX, ZION, CMA and MI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) RF 2) ILMN 3) NRG 4) CAG 5) MDTL

Economic Releases

- None of note