Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Monday, January 05, 2009
Links of Interest
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
Exchange Volume vs. Average
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes
Sunday, January 04, 2009
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Wall Street’s biggest bond firms say Treasuries will fall for the first time in a decade as efforts to spur the economy gain traction and the flight to safety that drove the best returns in government debt since 1995 wanes. Benchmark 10-year notes may lose 3.1% this year, the first loss since declining 8.3% in 1999, based on the median forecast of the 17 primary government security dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. “We could start to see stability sooner than the market would otherwise expect,” said William O’Donnell, a
- The cost of protecting investors from defaults on Asia-Pacific corporate and government bonds declined, according to traders of credit-default swaps. The Markit iTraxx
Wall Street Journal:
Barron’s:
MarketWatch.com:
NY Times:
TheStreet.com:
- Top 2009 Biotech Stocks. (video)
Econbrowser:
Business Week:
- Mortgage rates are at historic lows and may be poised to go even lower next year. It's a great time to buy a home—if you can.
- Expert predictions: Stock market could be good in 2009.
CNNMoney.com:
- Top 10 Macworld rumors for 2009.
International Herald Tribune:
Reuters:
Financial Times:
AFP:
- The first passenger flight from Europe in 18 years landed at
-
Business Standard:
-
Sankei:
- Toyota Motor Corp. will freeze construction plans for new factories in
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (TBT), (HYG), (F), (GE), (AMZN), (BIIB), (DO) and (C).
Night Trading
Asian indices are +1.0% to +2.50% on avg.
S&P 500 futures -.43%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.42%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (MOS)/1.52
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Construction Spending for November is estimated to fall 1.4% versus a 1.2% decline in October.
- Total Vehicle Sales for December are estimated to fall to 10.0M versus 10.2M in November.
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Yellen Speaking could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect
Weekly Outlook
Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Click here for stocks in focus for Monday by MarketWatch.
There are a number of economic reports of note and a few significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. – Construction Spending, Total Vehicle Sales
Tues. – Weekly retail sales reports, ISM Non-Manufacturing, Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales, Dec. 16 FOMC Meeting Minutes
Wed. – Weekly MBA mortgage applications report, weekly EIA energy inventory data, Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment Change
Thur. – ICSC Chain Store Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Credit
Fri. – Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Wholesale Inventories
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. – Mosaic Co.(MOS)
Tues. – Global Payments(GPN), Acuity Brands(AYI), Supervalu(SVU)
Wed. – Constellation Brands(STZ), Monsanto(MON), Ruby Tuesday(RI), Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY), Family Dollar(FDO)
Thur. – Chevron Corp.(CVX), Allscripts(MDRX), Apollo Group(APOL)
Fri. – KB Home(KBH)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. – The Fed’s Yellen Speaking
Tue. – The
Wed. – The Fed’s Hoenig speaking, Goldman Healthcare Conference, Needham Growth Conference, Citi Entertainment/Media/Telecom Conference, Consumer Electronics Show
Thur. – 10-year Treasury Auction, the Fed’s Hoenig speaking, (MON) R&D Pipeline update, Needham Growth Conference, Goldman Healthcare Conference, JPMorgan Tech Forum, Citi Entertainment/Media/Telecom Conference
Fri. – (GIS) analyst meeting, the Fed’s Lacker speaking, (MON) R&D Pipeline update
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Friday, January 02, 2009
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 931.80 +7.33%
DJIA 9,034.69 +6.69%
NASDAQ 1,632.21 +7.04%
Russell 2000 505.82 +7.51%
Wilshire 5000 9,331.77 +7.51%
Russell 1000 Growth 384.31 +7.54%
Russell 1000 Value 500.54 +7.45%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 565.06 +5.76%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 498.94 +10.93%
Morgan Stanley Technology 356.52 +7.78%
Transports 3,651.02 +9.34%
Utilities 378.82 +5.80%
MSCI Emerging Markets 25.59 +6.93%
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 21,471 +32.24%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -319 +39.47%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 36.0 unch.
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 215,665 +4.77%
Total Put/Call .94 +17.50%
OEX Put/Call 1.20 -60.66%
ISE Sentiment 118.0 -15.11%
NYSE Arms .69 -23.59%
Volatility(VIX) 39.19 -12.52%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 20.33 +5.17%
Smart Money Flow Index 7,344.83 +3.52%
AAII % Bulls 24.0 -17.1%
AAII % Bears 54.67 +24.65%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 46.25 +29.90%
Reformulated Gasoline 111.0 +32.0%
Natural Gas 6.03 +2.95%
Heating Oil 147.70 +18.49%
Gold 876.80 +3.42%
Base Metals 110.93 +9.79%
Copper 146.05 +14.81%
Agriculture 308.73 +4.81%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 2.39% +26 basis points
10-year TIPS Spread .12% +2 basis points
TED Spread 1.33 -15 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 200.0 -2.19%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 721.70 -1.69%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index -117.3 +.93%
Fed Fund Futures imply 74.0% chance of no change, 26.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 1/28
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 42.12 -1.25%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 552,300 -1.0%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.10% -4 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 1,245,700 +.02%
Weekly Retail Sales -.90%
Nationwide Gas $1.63/gallon -.01/gallon
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 8.0% below normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 108.0 +1.12%
US Dollar Index 81.84 +.77%
Baltic Dry Index 774.0 unch.
CRB Index 233.92 +11.05%
Best Performing Style
Mid-cap Growth +9.56%
Worst Performing Style
Small-cap Value +7.10%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +18.24%
Steel +14.11%
I-Banks +11.97%
Gaming +10.92%
Semis +9.43%
Lagging Sectors
Restaurants +4.87%
Foods +4.74%
Drugs +4.40%
Tobacco +2.61%
REITs +1.09%
Stocks Finish Sharply Higher, Boosted by Gaming, Technology, Commodity, Alternative Energy, Construction and Airline Shares
Market Summary
Top 20 Biz Stories
Today’s Movers
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask
After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart
In Play