Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Short-Covering Offsets Rising Economic Pessimism

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Education longs, Biotech longs and Commodity/Emerging Market shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mildly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is neutral. Nikkei futures indicate an +46 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +2 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting and less extreme financial sector pessimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- Oil extracted from tar sands in Canada can be made a clean energy source, and the U.S. will work with its northern neighbor to develop the technology, President Barack Obama said. A joint effort by the U.S. and Canada, its biggest trading partner, on ways to capture and store carbon dioxide underground would “be good for everybody,” Obama said yesterday in an interview with the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. Conservationists on both sides of the border have called on Obama to reject any bid to exempt tar-sands oil from proposed climate-protection rules. Government officials in Canada say restrictions on oil-sands exports would increase U.S. dependence on oil from unfriendly countries.

- Crude oil for April delivery fell on speculation that a government report tomorrow will show U.S. supplies climbed for the 19th time in 21 weeks as the recession cuts demand. Prices for delivery in future months are higher than for earlier ones, a situation known as contango, allowing buyers to profit from hoarding oil. This has led to record stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, where New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude is delivered. Futures touched $32.40 on Dec. 19, the lowest since February 2004, after a report showed that Cushing stockpiles climbed 21 percent the week ended Dec. 12. “We have to closely watch the contract expiration on Friday because of the supply pressure at Cushing,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global Inc. in New York. “We are going to challenge December’s lows and then head into the $20s.”

- It takes only a few seconds to make history new again. Leaders around the world are talking up economic stimulus, channeling U.S. President Barack Obama, who in turn is channeling Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Obama bases his confidence on an old story line with some appealing parallels to today:

- Netflix Inc.(NFLX) may allow customers to pay solely for online-video streaming by late this year or 2010 as more viewers watch content directly from the Internet, Chief Executive Officer Reed Hastings said. The largest U.S. mail-order movie service has “millions” of its more than 10 million subscribers watching video online, and is investing more this year to expand its library available on the Internet. Netflix has more than 12,000 titles for immediate viewing, compared with 100,000 for DVD-by-mail.

- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may be bottoming as U.S. stocks approach the lows reached in November, say strategists who oversee $500 billion. The lowest U.S. equity prices relative to earnings in two decades and $787 billion in government spending and tax breaks will limit losses after the S&P 500 retreated for five of the last six weeks, according to Bob Doll, who helps manage $280 billion as chief investment officer for global equities at BlackRock Inc. James Paulsen, Wells Capital Management’s chief investment strategist, says the S&P 500 will rise after revisiting its November levels.

- New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg proposed creating a privately run fund to loan up to $250,000 to local start-up companies, among several plans to encourage entrepreneurship and attract new financial firms. The “angel fund” is one of 11 proposals to spur growth in the city’s financial services industry, Bloomberg said during the announcement at 160 Varick St., site of the first city-sponsored “business incubator,” with office space for about 100 entrepreneurs that costs about $200 a month.

Wall Street Journal:

- Even as many leisure travelers are cutting spending because of the bad economy, discount carrier Allegiant Airlines(ALGT) is adding new routes. Most traditional U.S. airlines, including low-fare carriers, posted losses in 2008 and are reducing their flights, but not Allegiant, a unit of Las Vegas-based Allegiant Travel Co. Based on its 11.1% operating margin, it was the most profitable U.S. airline last year. And on Wednesday, it plans to announce it will add Los Angeles to its roster of holiday destinations that can be reached nonstop from small U.S. cities.

- Seeking to combat stiffer competition from cheaper store brands, big-name food manufacturers, including Kraft Foods Inc.(KFT) and General Mills Inc.(GIS), are joining forces with retailers to promote their brands alongside private-label goods.

- Solar-Powered Cell Phones Spark Interest at Conference.

- Carly Fiorina: Small Businesses are Key to Economic Recovery.

- The Chicago Tribune and The Washington Post have called on Illinois Democratic Sen. Roland Burris to resign following revelations this week that he tried to raise funds for impeached Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich after he had testified otherwise during the governor’s impeachment proceedings.

- Hedge-funds outflows totaled an estimated $74 billion in January, the second-highest ever, though the amount is seen slowing as the funds' assets continue to shrink, according to data-tracker TrimTabs. Hedge-fund investors have taken out $315 billion since September, TrimTabs said, but it expects outflows to slow in February, mainly because the funds' asset base has shrunk by half in eight months. Event-driven funds posted the biggest outflows in January, at $19.8 billion. Merger-arbitrage funds were the only ones to report inflows, totaling $2 billion.

- The Obama administration announced new plans Wednesday to make it easier for up to nine million people to rework or refinance their mortgages, as the White House began an aggressive effort to stabilize the housing market.

- Asia is likely to have 7.2 million more jobless people in 2009 than last year due to fallout from the global economic crisis, the International Labor Organization said. It forecast the ranks of unemployed workers would likely balloon to 97 million in 2009 in Asia, the world economy's star performer in recent years but where a third of the population still live on a little more than $1 a day. That would raise the region's jobless rate to 5.1% from 4.8% last year. In the most pessimistic scenario, the number of unemployed could swell to 113 million, or 22.3 million more than last year, the ILO said in a report on the crisis's fallout in Asia.

CNBC.com:
- Tough times on Wall Street are reaching all the way to the highest levels of the most storied former investment bank—Goldman Sachs(GS)—as partners there are being forced to borrow money to cover margin calls, according to sources within the firm. Several Goldman Sachs partners have leveraged their Goldman Sachs stock to buy alternative investments such as hedge funds & private equity, and they have done so through their Goldman Sachs brokerage accounts.

NY Times:

- As interest in cleaning up power generation grows around the country, Alaska is fast becoming a testing ground for new technologies and an unlikely experiment in oil-state support for renewable energy. Alaskans once cast a wary eye on anything smacking of environmentalism, but today they are investing heavily in green power, not so much to reduce emissions as to save cash. Advocates of renewable energy here say Alaska, with its windy coasts, untapped rivers and huge tidal and wave resources, could quickly become a national leader. The state already generates 24 percent of its electricity from renewable sources — almost exclusively hydroelectric — and Ms. Palin last month announced a goal of 50 percent by 2025.

- Three lawmakers said Tuesday that they were returning campaign contributions from donors listed as employees of the PMA Group, a Washington lobbying firm whose founder is under investigation for purportedly funneling money through bogus donors. The decision by the three lawmakers — Senator Bill Nelson of Florida, and Representatives Zoe Lofgren of California and Peter J. Visclosky of Indiana, all Democrats — puts new pressure on others who received cash from the PMA Group and its founder, Paul Magliocchetti. Other big beneficiaries include Representative John P. Murtha, the Pennsylvania Democrat who is chairman of the House defense appropriations subcommittee; Representative James P. Moran, a Virginia Democrat on the panel; and Representative Alan B. Mollohan, the West Virginia Democrat who is chairman of the appropriations subcommittee that oversees the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, among other things.

- Some Marketers Using Tattoos to Advertise.

Atlanta Journal Constitution:

- Coca-Cola Co.(KO) plans to try out a new fountain machine that can dispense more than 100 different beverages, using restaurants in Atlanta and Orange County, Calif., as the test sites.

Chicago Tribune:

- ESL Investments Inc., the hedge-fund firm run by Sears Holdings Corp. Chairman Edward Lampert, more than doubled its stake in CIT Group Inc.(CIT) in the fourth quarter, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. ESL owned 15.4 million shares of CIT as of Dec. 31, according to Tuesday's filing, up from 7.3 million in the third quarter. The Greenwich, Conn.-based hedge fund also bought 11.5 million shares of Genworth Financial Inc.(GNW).

TechCrunch:

- Google(GOOG) saw healthy growth in the number of search queries on its core U.S. search engine in January, according to comScore qSearch numbers that came out last night. Google’s query growth rate was 38.4 percent, compared to January, 2008, outpacing the industry’s overall 28.6 percent growth in search queries. Any way you slice it, people are still doing more and more searches, which suggests that the search market is far from saturated.

Rasmussen Reports:

- General Motors and Chrysler are back this week seeking $22 billion more in federal help, but 64% of U.S. voters are opposed to providing any additional taxpayer-backed loans for the embattled automakers. Twenty-four percent (24%) support more loans for GM and Chrysler, and 11% are undecided in a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Politico:

- In three months since Election Day, at least a half-dozen prominent journalists have taken jobs working for the federal government. Journalists, including some of those who’ve jumped ship, say it’s better to have a solid job in government than a shaky job — or none at all — in an industry that’s fading fast. But conservative critics answer with a question: Would journalists be making the same career choices if John McCain had beaten Barack Obama in November?

Financial Times:
- John Deere(DE), the world’s biggest maker of tractors and other farm machinery, said on Wednesday that demand for agricultural equipment would fall by up to 25 per cent this year in emerging economies as farmers find it increasingly difficult to access credit.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Small-cap Value (-1.82%)

Sector Underperformers:
Airlines (-5.42%), Homebuilders (-3.72%) and Steel (-3.70%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
FTO, IBOC, WNR, CEG, CCI, BT, AYE, PBR, CPTS, AXYS, CMCSK, EQIX, CRT, HOS and MTA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) LDK 2) AEM 3) UPL 4) NBR 5) DD

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-cap Growth (+.27%)

Sector Outperformers:
Internet (+1.05%), Semis (+.74%) and Education (+.62%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
BIDU, TM, AKAM, HMC, WMT, CEO, FCX, PVTB, BEAT, VOLC, FOSL, AMMD, SNCR, RAIL, IPCR, CPRT, XSD, VMI, ZN and HNI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) STP 2) A 3) GNW 4) PAYX 5) ATHR

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Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- The U.S. Treasury said bank lending rose in December after dropping the previous month, in its first survey of the 20 banks that received the most capital from the government’s $700 billion rescue program. “Overall, loan origination and underwriting activities were weak from October through November 2008 but picked up from November to December, fueled by falling mortgage interest rates” and also the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s debt-guarantee program, the Treasury said today in a statement.

- President Barack Obama’s chief spokesman said the administration can’t rule out a restructuring through bankruptcy for struggling automakers, while adding the industry is “tremendously important” to the economy.

- Investors should sell yuan-denominated Chinese shares after the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose above 2,300 points because gains are not backed by fundamentals, HSBC Holdings said. It is a “worrisome development that exceptional loan growth has yet to drive up M1 growth, which is a better indicator of aggregate demand, pricing power, corporate profits and therefore market performance,” the note said. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which measures the so-called H shares of Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong, has declined 8.9% this year and is valued at 9.1 times reported earnings, less than half the 18.3 times for the Shanghai index.

- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said his country is waiting for the U.S. to show “signs of real change” under the Obama administration, calling it “a necessity” for improving relations between the two countries.

- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS) said co- President and co-Chief Operating Officer Jon Winkelried, who led cost-cutting that eliminated more than 10 percent of the company’s jobs in the past year, is retiring March 31. Winkelried, 49, joined the company in 1982 and has been a director since June 2006. Co-President and co-Chief Operating Officer Gary Cohn, 48, will assume both jobs, spokesman Lucas Van Praag said. Winkelried won’t accept severance, and plans to spend time with his family and on his Colorado ranch, Van Praag said.

- President Barack Obama said the war in Afghanistan is “still winnable” as he signed an order increasing U.S. troops there by 17,000 combat and support personnel. Military force alone cannot adequately deal with the threat posed by a “resurgent” Taliban, Obama said in an interview with Canadian Broadcasting Corp. The war is “still winnable -- in the sense of our ability to ensure that it is not a launching pad for attacks against North America.”

- T. Boone Pickens, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who forecasts oil will more than double in the next 10 months after being driven down by the global recession, shed energy-related shares as their value declined, a public filing showed today. Pickens, who held 26 energy companies in his BP Capital Management LP fund as of a Nov. 14 filing, had nine in today’s filing. As Pickens sold positions, the worth of the holdings in the fund tumbled 97 percent in the final three months of 2008 to $40 million from $1.29 billion on Sept. 30, a comparison of the filings showed. “It looks like a big commodity dump,” said Gianna Bern, president of Flossmoor, Illinois-based Brookshire Advisory & Research Inc., an energy research and consulting firm. Pickens reduced his holdings in Los Angeles-based oil producer Occidental Petroleum Corp. from 2 million shares to 100,000, the filing showed. He pared his holdings in Geneva-based Transocean Ltd., an offshore oil driller, from 1.1 million shares to 300,000. And he reduced his position in Calgary-based Suncor Energy Inc., an oil-sands producer, from 2.53 million shares to 100,000 shares. Pickens sold all holdings in 19 companies including Schlumberger Ltd., Halliburton Co. and Calgary-based Talisman Energy, the filing showed.

- Australia’s currency may drop to as low as 50 US cents as it is “overvalued” considering the global recession and the central bank’s decision to slash borrowing costs, Stephen Koukoulas, London-based head of global foreign exchange and fixed-income strategy at TD Securities, said in a note to clients.

- The cost of protecting investors in Japanese corporate bonds from default rose to a record on concern company failures will increase as the economy worsens. The Markit iTraxx Japan index of credit-default swaps on the debt of 50 investment-grade borrowers rose 15 basis points to 585 at 9:50 a.m. in Tokyo, Barclays Capital prices show. The benchmark has jumped more than 200 basis points this month, double the rise on the Asia iTraxx index excluding Japan, according to CMA DataVision.

- Germany and France may be forced to contemplate the bailout of entire nations rather than just individual banks as European government budgets buckle under the weight of recession. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck became the first senior policy maker to broach the topic this week, saying some of the 16 euro nations are “getting into difficulties” and may need help. French officials are also concerned about market tensions as the cost of insuring Irish, Greek and Spanish debt against default rises to records and bond spreads widen. The nightmare for Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy is that widening deficits will prompt investors to shun the debt of some countries, sparking a region-wide crisis. While few investors are yet forecasting any defaults, the mere risk of it may prompt the bloc’s two richest economies to ignore the European Central Bank and announce their willingness to come to the rescue. “When push comes to shove Germany, France, the larger players will bail out those smaller peripheral players,” said Alex Allen, chief investment officer of Eddington Capital Management. “You can’t let one part of the system fail because it leads to failure of the whole system.” Allen’s betting that the risk at least one nation will leave the bloc is higher than the market currently expects.

- The euro traded near a 10-week low against the dollar on concern the region’s banks will disclose increasing losses due to the deepening financial crisis in central and eastern Europe. The European currency may weaken for a third day versus the greenback as Commerzbank AG, Germany’s second largest, and ING Groep NV, the biggest Dutch financial company, are forecast to report combined losses of more than 4 billion euros ($5 billion) when they release earnings today, according to Bloomberg News surveys.

- Hedge-Fund Firms Pressed to Consolidate After Losses Erode Fees.

- Taiwan’s economy shrank 8.36% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, citing an official. The main reason for the contraction was a 32.23% drop in private investment. The economy was expected to shrink 6.82%.

Wall Street Journal:

- Numerous accounting firms missed the alleged fraud at Bernard L. Madoff Securities LLC as they inspected the investment company's books or those of so-called feeder funds that helped steer money to it. As a result, those accountants could now be legally vulnerable to claims that they should have uncovered red flags, according to legal and accounting experts.

- Texas businessman R. Allen Stanford, whose multibillion-dollar investment empire was ordered seized Monday by a federal judge, has long enjoyed big influence in Washington thanks to a steady supply of campaign contributions, Caribbean trips for lawmakers and fees to lobbying firms. Mr. Stanford and his affiliated companies have spent more than $5 million on lobbying fees since 2000, federal records show. The businessman and his top executives have also contributed at least $2 million to candidates, including key lawmakers, and additional thousands of dollars on jets and resorts. Among the recipients of Mr. Stanford's largesse is House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D., N.Y.), who has long advocated lenient tax policies toward Virgin Islands residents and in 2007 introduced a bill enforce a statute of limitations on IRS scrutiny of islanders' old tax returns. That year, Mr. Rangel traveled to Antigua for a development conference partly sponsored by Mr. Stanford, who also donated $28,300 to Mr. Rangel in 2008. Mr. Stanford wrote two $250,000 checks to the Democratic Party in 2002.

- General Motors Corp.(GM) and Chrysler LLC told the federal government they may need up to $21.6 billion more combined in bailout loans to put them on the road to recovery, and outlined possible scenarios if either auto maker should have to file for bankruptcy protection.

- The Decline of California. They still think they can tax their way out of this one.

NY Times:

- Former CNBC news anchor Ron Insana appears to be done with his foray into the hedge fund business. Mr. Insana has decided to leave his post at SAC Capital just six months after he was hired as a managing director, a person briefed on the matter told DealBook. Mr. Insana’s last day at the hedge fund giant, run by billionaire Steven A. Cohen, will be Feb. 27. Mr. Insana is planning to return to the media industry, this person said, but it’s unclear if he will be rejoining CNBC.

CNNMoney.com:
- Live television programming is on its way to Apple's (AAPL) iPhone.

Dailybreeze.com:

- U.S. Sen. Roland Burris now acknowledges attempting to raise money for ousted Gov. Rod Blagojevich - an explosive twist in his evolving story on how he landed a coveted Senate appointment from the man accused of trying to sell the seat. Burris made the admission to reporters late Monday, after releasing an affidavit over the weekend saying he had more contact with Blagojevich advisers about the Senate seat than he had described under oath to the state House panel that recommended Blagojevich's impeachment. The Democrat also said in the affidavit, but not before the panel, that the governor's brother asked him for fundraising help.

Reuters:

- Verizon Communications)VZ) sees the weak economy helping sales of an on-demand computer hosting service it plans to launch this summer, an executive for the telecom service provider said on Tuesday. Verizon said it would let customers order computing capacity for applications such as retail websites on-the-fly instead of having to commit to rent computer space longer term under Verizon's current hosting service model.

- Japan's Trend Micro Inc, the No 3 maker of computer security programs, introduced a new line of software on Tuesday that runs on home networking gear, protecting groups of PCs from viruses. The company, which touted the product as the first of its type, is also getting ready to unveil software that protects USB flash drives from infection, said Trend Micro Vice President Carol Carpenter.

- Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said on Tuesday he would invest in the U.S. government's private-public investment fund designed to help mop up banks' troubled assets, provided that low-cost funding, as well as guarantees in sharing investment losses, are involved. "Part of the reason this fund needs to be leveraged is simply the scale of this thing," Ross told Reuters in an interview. "If they are going do it, they should be doing it on a very big scale. Otherwise it doesn't solve anything."

Korea Economic Daily:

- Samsung Electronics Co. plans to cut its capital expenditure by 35% to around $4.8 billion this year, citing a survey of South Korea’s 600 biggest companies. Samsung plans to reduce investment in the semiconductor and liquid-crystal-display businesses.

Herald Business:

- South Korea’s total debt may be at $471 billion, or 75% of GDP, instead of 33% announced by the government. South Korea classifies state debt differently from other advanced countries, which may have caused the discrepancy in calculations, citing a parliamentary report.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (NKE), target $63.

- Reiterated Buy on (BEAT), target $29..

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.0% to -.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.38%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.36%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (OC)/.15

- (GT)/-1.14

- (CMCSA)/.23

- (ITTRI)/.72

- (DBRN)/.01

- (ADI)/.16

- (CBS)/.26

- (OII)/.92

- (HPQ)/.93

- (AAP)/.37

- (SNPS)/.41

- (IM)/.36

- (WFMI)/.17

- (CEG)/1.18

- (PCLN)/1.06

- (OMX)/.14

- (DE)/.62

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

- The Import Price Index for January is estimated to fall 1.2% versus a 4.2% decline in December.

- Housing Starts for January are estimated to fall to 529K versus 550K in December.

- Building Permits for January are estimated to fall to 525K versus 547K in December.

9:15 am EST

- Industrial Production for January is estimated to fall 1.5% versus a 2.0% decline in December.

2:00 pm EST

- Minutes of Jan. 27-28 FOMC Meeting

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Pianalto speaking, Fed’s Bernanke speaking, Fed’s Evans speaking, Kaufman Bros. Green Tech Conference, Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference, Roth Growth Stock Conference, weekly retail sales reports and weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and financial stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.