Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Growing Tariff Uncertainties, Global Growth Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Gambling Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.7 +12.7%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.3 +25.3%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 74.1 +1.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.3 -.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.2 +.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 25.5 +17.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 138.0 -2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 +23.0%

• NYSE Arms .96 +43.3%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$547.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.0 +4.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 352.0 +3.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 198.0 unch.

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.2 +.3%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 131.9 -1.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 113.0 basis points +2.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.6 -.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 159.1 +2.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 83.1 +1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.23 +.23%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.0 basis points -.75 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -3.0 basis point -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.5 +.25 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 586.0 +1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 47.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 +.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.2 euros/megawatt-hour -7.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.2 +3.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.7 -1.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.0 +.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(492 of 500 reporting) +13.2% +n/a
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.64 +n/a:  Growth Rate +12.5% +n/a, P/E 20.8 -n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.65% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +31.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 408.28 +n/a: Growth Rate +18.8% +n/a, P/E 30.0 -n/a
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .39 +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 +20.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 31.25 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.41% -13.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.4% unch.

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.83% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 50.0% (-10.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 48.7%(-3.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -675 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating unch. open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -162 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my industrial/utility/financial/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges then added more back
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long