Monday, March 31, 2025

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Quarter-End Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Energy/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 +.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.7 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.4 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.0 +1.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.37 +.28:  Growth Rate +13.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.0 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.57% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.27 +.49: Growth Rate +21.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 27.2 -.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 -22.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.37 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 32.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.8% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.9% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.47% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 64.4% (-.5 percentage point) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 41.9%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +532 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +8 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +344 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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