Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 +.2%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.7 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -1.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.4 -.7 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.0 +1.4 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.37 +.28: Growth Rate +13.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.0 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.57% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.27 +.49: Growth Rate +21.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 27.2 -.6
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 -22.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.37 -5.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 32.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.8% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.9% unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.47% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 64.4% (-.5 percentage point) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 41.9%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +532 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +8 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +344 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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