Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.1%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 100.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.0 euros/megawatt-hour +4.5%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.4 -1.2 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.6 -4.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.0 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +13.5% +.3 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.76 +.12: Growth Rate +12.4% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.6 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.65% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +32.1% +.6 percentage point
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 408.48 +.20: Growth Rate +18.1% -.7 percentage point, P/E 29.0 -1.0
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .19 -20.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 unch.
- US Yield Curve 31.25 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.41% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.3% +1.9 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.83% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 66.4% (+16.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 56.6%(+8.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +301 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/utility/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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