Friday, March 28, 2025

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on US Economic Data, Global Growth Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.23%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.1 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.1 -14.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.6 -.9 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.09 -.02:  Growth Rate +13.0% unch., P/E 20.2 -.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.56% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 417.78 +.22: Growth Rate +20.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 27.8 -1.0
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .31 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.42 -10.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 33.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.8% -99.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.9% +2.1 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% +8.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.47% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 63.2% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 43.1%(-4.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -670 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -32 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +256 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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