Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.62 +.41%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.2 euros/megawatt-hour -2.5%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.7 -4.0 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.8 -1.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.4 +1.6 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +13.1% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.50 +.15: Growth Rate +12.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.4 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.56% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +32.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 411.67 +.54: Growth Rate +19.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.3 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .20 +18.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.30 +9.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 25.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.06% +35.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.1% -1.7 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.46% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 78.5% (+6.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 54.5%(-3.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +448 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +106 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +97 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/tech/utility/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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