Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Diminished Tariff Worries, Short-Covering, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

  Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.0 -6.6%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .79 +4.4%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 76.5 +3.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.1 -.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.44 +.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.2 -8.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 -5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -7.1%

• NYSE Arms .98 +1.0%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$199.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 -4.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 341.2 -4.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 224.0 +2.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.2 -2.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 144.7 -2.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 basis points -1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.7 -1.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 180.5 -2.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 87.7 +1.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.3 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.0 basis points -1.5 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 0.0 basis point unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 0.0 -.25 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 601.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.8 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.5 +2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.2 +9.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.7 -1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.83 +.25:  Growth Rate +12.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.55% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 412.86 +.55: Growth Rate +19.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 29.7 +.8
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .30 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.38 -5.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 29.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -1.76% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.1% -1.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.46% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 58.6% (-8.7 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 49.1%(+2.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +203 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +250 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long