Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Inflation Concerns, FANG+ Bargain-Hunting, Short-Covering, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.01%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.0 -3.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.1 -3.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.4 +2.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +13.5% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.55 -.55:  Growth Rate +12.3% -.2 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.60% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +32.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 410.74 +.18: Growth Rate +18.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.2 +.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .03 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve 31.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.41% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.4% -2.9 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% -2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.46% -37.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 70.4% (+9.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 57.2%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +211 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +23 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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