Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.13%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 100.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.01%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.0 -3.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.1 -3.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.4 +2.8 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +13.5% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.55 -.55: Growth Rate +12.3% -.2 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.60% -4.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +32.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 410.74 +.18: Growth Rate +18.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.2 +.6
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .03 +4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 31.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.41% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.4% -2.9 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% -2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.46% -37.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 70.4% (+9.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 57.2%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +211 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +23 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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