Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Concerns, Geopolitical Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.9 +6.7%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.0 +.50%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 73.8 -.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.8 +1.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.79 -.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.4 +5.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 136.0 -47.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .76 -17.4%

• NYSE Arms .78 +18.2%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$282.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.3 +.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 359.9 +.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 236.0 +10.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.3 -.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 135.0 -1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 basis points -3.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.3 -.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.7 +.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 83.5 +1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.3 +.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.5 basis points unch.

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -2.75 basis point -2.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +1.25 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 599.0 +2.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 55.0 +2.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 +.05%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.8 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.3 +6.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.2 +1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.0 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +6.1% n/a
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.52 +.02:  Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 20.2 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.55% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 411.85 +.18: Growth Rate +19.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 28.7 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.38 +8.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 24.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -1.76% +30.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.1% unch.

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.46% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 82.5% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 55.3%(+.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -190 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +4 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/utility/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long