Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Trump Says He Expects Zelenskiy to Come Around on Minerals Deal. 
• China’s Communist Party Wants Women to Stay in Their Place.
• Beijing to Roll Out AI Courses for Kids to Boost Sector’s Growth.
• Musk Calls on US to Quit NATO, Stop Paying for Defense of Europe.
• UK Will Slash Civil Service Jobs and Use AI to Boost Efficiency
• China Urges Hotels to Install Scales to Tackle Rising Obesity.
• Investors With $2 Trillion Lay Out Strategies for a Turbulent 2025.
• Asian Equities Poised for Weak Open, Futures Drop.
• Gold Shines Bright as Biggest Jewelry Market Boosts Options Bets.
• Lutnick Says Trump Sticking to US Aluminum-Steel Tariff Timeline.
• Trump Says US Economy Faces ‘Transition,’ Avoids Recession Call.
• How Natural Gas Became America’s Most Important Export.
• Volatility Traders Revel in S&P 500’s Wild Tariff-Driven Swings.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.

Zero Hedge: 

• Democracy Dies In Romania... After 'Winning' In December, Georgescu Now Banned From May Presidential Election .
• Americans Can No Longer Tolerate European Entitlement.
• China Hits Canada With Retaliatory Tariffs On Farm And Food Products.
• Watch: Trump Says Zelenskyy Took US Money "Like Candy From A Baby" -- Talks Tariffs, Economic 'Transition'.
• 10 Reasons Why Hedge Funds Are Shorting At The Fastest Pace Since Nov 2024, According To Goldman Prime.
• Trud-Out: Mark Carney To Become Canada's Next PM.
• Weekend News Roundup - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• 21 State Attorneys General Urge Congress to Ban DeepSeek on All Government Devices.
• Judge Declines To Block Policy That Lets Agents Arrest Illegal Immigrants At Schools.
• China Slumps Into Deflation Again, With First Negative Core CPI Print Since 2021.
• You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet.
• The Tesla Model Y Was The World's Best-Selling Car In 2024.
• X Takes Down Network Of Chinese Accounts Amplifying NYT Attacks On Dissident Arts Group.
• US Still Dominates The $124 Trillion Global Stock Market.
• Pandering Podcaster Gavin Newsom's Wife Recently Partnered With Pro-Transgender Athlete Group.
• RFK Jr. To Meet Leaders Of Processed Foods Industrial Complex.
• Ukraine Already Kinda Has Article 5 Guarantees From Some NATO Countries.
• Wildfires Erupt Near Billionaire's Playground In Long Island, Sparking State Of Emergency.
• Visualizing The Ukraine Refugee Crisis In Europe.
• Alleged Criminality In UK Peer-Related Contracts Probed Behind Closed Doors At COVID Inquiry.
• These Are The Nations With The Highest (And Lowest) Marginal Income Tax Rates.
• Europe Regularly Supplies Ukraine With Outdated & Defective Weapons.
• What Happens To The Middle East If Russia & The US Stop Being Enemies?
• Chinese Warships Sail Near Australian Base Hosting US Submarine. 
  
• New Study Reveals How DEI Training Increases Hostility.
• "Putting American Citizens First Again": SBA Closing Satellite Offices In Six Sanctuary Cities.
• The COVID-Era Smearing - And Resurrection - Of Trump NIH Appointee Dr. Jay Bhattacharya.
• Trump Says Washington Mayor Must Clean Up Homeless Encampments.
• Federal Judge Imposes $24 Billion Judgement Against China For COVID Cover-Up As Missouri Moves To Seize Assets.
• West-Backed Jihadists In Syria Massacre Over 1000 Alawite & Christian Men, Women & Children. 
• What Is This Recession Talk?
• US P-3B Orion Spy Plane Spotted Over Mexico As SIGINT Ops Target Cartels.
• "NO DISSENT": Trump Asks "All Republicans" To "Give Us A Few Months" And Approve GOP Continuing Resolution.

Wall Street Journal:

• What Went Wrong at Saudi Arabia’s Futuristic Desert Metropolis.
• Trump Declines to Rule Out Recession.
• Israel Chokes Electricity Supply to Gaza to Pressure Hamas on Hostages.
• Sectarian Killings Along Syria’s Coast Spiral Into Crisis for New Government.
• Rebuilding L.A. Is California’s Economic Moment of Truth.
• Fear of Trump Has Elite Law Firms in Retreat.
• To Win McConnell’s Senate Seat, Kentucky Hopefuls Run Away From Mitch.
• Markets Finally Woke Up to Tariff Reality. Is This a Buying Opportunity?

CNBC:  

• China’s consumer inflation turns negative for the first time in 13 months.
• RFK Jr. could further deter childhood vaccinations as rates fall in the U.S.
• Trump downplays concerns about uncertainty from his tariffs and the prospect of higher prices.
• House Republicans unveil bill to avoid shutdown and they’re daring Democrats to oppose it.
• Top Wall Street analysts are bullish on these dividend stocks. 
• Singapore looks to AI to help manage the health of its fast-aging population.
  

MarketWatch.com:  

• Investors are anxious about Trump’s tariffs. Here’s what financial advisers are telling them to do. 
• DoorDash’s stock pops as it gets the S&P 500 nod over these more volatile names.
• High egg prices are getting the DOJ’s attention. Will that help consumers?

NewsMax:

• Trump: Tariffs, Rebuilding American Industry Will Be 'Great for Us'.
• Hassett: Canada Fentanyl Dispute Could Be Solved Soon.
• US Shipbuilders Welcome Trump's Support.

Fox News:

• Failed Dem candidate defends Biden-era scheme handing out green appliances on the taxpayers' dime.
• Probe of Biden documents raises new questions about who was running the country .
• DOGE blows the lid off massive number of loans granted to kids 11 and under.
• Spring break student vanishes in Dominican Republic while walking on beach.
• Dem senator's maverick persona doesn’t translate as he helps block trans sports bill.
• Trump critic poised to replace Trudeau as Canada's prime minister.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Canada’s Ruling Party Installs New Prime Minister to Replace Trudeau – A Leftist Former Goldman Sachs Exec Who Compared Trump to a Harry Potter Villain. 
• President Trump Tells Maria Bartiromo  ‘There’s Something Wrong’ with Democrats (Video).
• Kristi Noem Shuts Down CBS’s Margaret Brennan with Two Simple Reminders When Host Complains About Illegal Alien Kids Being Detained – Then Noem Announces a New Acting ICE Director (VIDEO).
• UPDATE: Armed Man Shot Outside White House Identified – Allegedly Wanted to Commit “Suicide by Cop”.
• Rep. Jamie Raskin Accuses Trump of Using ‘Racial and Ethnic Slur’ Against Fake Indian Elizabeth Warren (VIDEO).
• Anti-Musk Liberal Protesters Arrested for Mobbing Tesla Showroom in New York (VIDEOS).
• What? Vatican Says Ramadan is ‘a School of Inner Transformation’ for Catholics.
• Shocking Images from Syria as Biden-Supported Islamists Massacre Over 1000 Alawites, Christians and Druze.
• Vigilant Fox: Bill O’Reilly’s New Prediction Is Every Democrat’s Worst Nightmare.
• Elon Musk Reveals His “Key” to Ending the War In Ukraine for Good and Delivers Two Inconvenient Truths to Critics Accusing Him of Supporting Putin.
• European Warmongers Lack Troops, Air Defenses and Ammunition, Are Only Equipped To Fight for a Few Weeks – Rearming These Nations Will Take Years.
• Utah GOP to End Universal Mail-In Voting, Moves to Restore Election Integrity.
• PURE EVIL: Transgender Attorney and Harvard Law Instructor Doxxes Dozens of DOGE Employees on Far-Left Social Media Site.
• Zacatecas, Mexico: Nine Students Dismembered by the Cartels – Trump Was Right: It is Urgent to Expose and Demand Accountability from Sheinbaum’s Government in its Narco-State.

The Epoch Times:

• Canada Rejects China’s Claim of Unfair Trade Practices, Calls New Agriculture Tariffs ‘Unjustified’.
• China Intensifies Pressure as States Pass Laws to Counter Beijing’s Growing Influence.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Valerie Costa, the far-left activist behind the so-called "Tesla Takedown" fueling a spree of vandalism nationwide, proudly admits her campaign draws inspiration from Luigi Mangione. She labels Elon Musk's DOGE initiative as "criminal," even though Trump won both the popular vote and presidency, specifically while championing Musk and DOGE's vision to balance the budget. Clearly, Costa has no genuine respect for democracy, elections, or the people's choice. Ironically, Costa's "TroublemakersCommunity" and "Oil & Gas Action Network" previously targeted fossil fuel companies to fight climate change. Now, in a stunning twist of hypocrisy, she's attacking Tesla—the very company that's arguably done more than any other to combat climate change. Costa is committing crimes. (video)
• BREAKING NEWS. The candidacy of Calin Georgescu for the presidential elections has been rejected by the Electoral Commission. The country is in chaos. Democracy has officially died in Romania and the European Union. Europe has fallen. (video)
• As a former liberal and democratic voter… …let me just say that it is INCREDIBLY difficult to break out of a liberal media-echo chamber, once you are in it. The volume of peer pressure weaponized to shame and silence any dissenting voices or even reasonable questions, is mind-blowing. A lot of very open-minded, incredible intelligent individuals are genuinely terrified to ask questions or seek the truth. I have a lot of empathy for these people, because that was me, just a couple of months ago. It took a horrific hurricane and massive government failure to wake me up, without it, I would still be looking down my nose at MAGA… thinking I was a better and smarter person than you. The left-wing media literally trains you to think this way. It’s a game of moral superiority in which you are always the winner, even if your idea is the loser, because it’s coming from YOU, and YOU are the better person because YOU agree with them and have the “experts” on your side. It’s almost impossible to change a mind like that… like mine. What woke me up was seeing my life not fit into a media narrative. I saw that what I thought was just “news” was actually a handpicked, carefully crafted story to make me believe exactly one way. It wasn’t news. It was a storybook. And once you see that, it’s impossible to unsee it.True.
  

• @WallStreetApes

• Democrat Maine Rep Chellie Pingree net worth was only $316,000 before joining Congress. Do you wanna know what her net worth was just 4 years later? $40.5 MILLION. “She immediately purchased a $15 million mansion on a private island called North Haven, just off the coast of Maine, and a $20 million private jet so that she can fly back and forth from her island to Washington, DC”. (video)

• @Liz_Churchill10

• Please watch ‘Plandemic: InDOCTORnation’, a brilliant film which perfectly explains how the ‘Covid Pandemic’ was an orchestrated event that had the sole purpose of committing Global Genocide. PLEASE share everywhere.

• @Breaking911

• BREAKING: Twice in the past 48 hours, F-16 fighter jets intercepted general aviation aircrafts near President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.

• @827js

• USAID Administrator was making $180k annually, yet has a net worth of $30 million. (video)

• @catturd2

• Mitch McConnell's wife has been appointed to a seat on the board at the Kennedy Center. What. The Actual. Fk? I hate this.

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Meanwhile in Paris, France. “It’s shocking to hear their stories”. Women all over France are taking to the streets today on International Women’s Day protesting the fact the mass uncontrolled immigration is making them all less safe on their own streets. (video)

• @juneslater17

• PUTIN WAS ALLOWED TO SPEAK ON CROATIA TV. What did he say? He addressed the Europeans: "Russia has never been and will never be your enemy! We do not want European raw materials and wealth, we have our own raw materials and wealth, we absolutely do not need your raw materials. Russia is the richest country in the world in terms of raw materials. We do not want your land or your territory. Look at how wide Russia is on the map. Russia is twice the size of the whole of Europe in one place. What would we need your land for, what do we do with it? Why do you think Russia is an enemy of Europe? What damage has Russia done to you? Have we sold you gas and raw materials at lower prices than the prices at which your "friends" are currently selling you? YES Did Russia sacrifice 20 million people in World War II to get rid of the Nazis? YES Was Russia the first country to help Europe during the Covid pandemic? YES Did we help Europe when there were fires and natural disasters? YES What has Russia done to you that you hate it so much? Russia is not your enemy; your real enemies are your leaders, those who lead you!”

• @PhoneixReloaded

• CIVIL WAR BREAKS OUT IN GREECE ! The citizens of Greece are fighting the police & army in the streets. The people have tried everything to change the governments policies on Ukraine, they are desperate for the government to change course to avoid WW3 ! This is the secret war being hidden from you by MSM & the globalists, they dont want you to know that NOBODY WANTS WAR ! (video)
• HUGE CROWDS STORM FRANCE AGAINST MACRON & THE GLOBALISTS EFFORTS TO BRING ABOUT WW3 ! No normal person wants WW3, we want a ceasefire in Ukraine. (video)

• @TheChiefNerd

• Dr. Peter McCullough Says the New Bird Flu Strain Has Lab Origins. “This strain of bird flu is different. This looks like it has actually come from serial passage research done at the USDA Poultry Research Laboratory in Athens, Georgia … We're so sure of it, we've published this in a peer-reviewed paper … and it hasn't been disputed by any of the public health officials. We cite the USDA research.” (video)

• @Chicago1Ray

• Just saying. It's been (31) days since Pam Bondi was sworn in . There's been no Indictments, no subpoenas, and no arrests yet..on anyone involved in. J6. Covid. Russia Collusion. Lawfare against Trump, to name a few. Is anyone else getting impatient?

• @DisresepctedTrucker

• Canada has been charging the US huge tariffs for years. It's OK when Canada does it to us, but God forbid Trump does something about it. (video)

• @1776General_

• I was told this was a conspiracy theory. Reality is, it’s a 177-page UN report.

• @toobaffled

• Still think mRNA is safe? Then I dare you to watch the following. (video)
  

• @NicHulscher

• Yes, our study concluded that the current H5N1 bird flu outbreak may have originated from the USDA Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory—and not a single U.S. government agency has challenged our findings. (map)

• @BillAckman

• Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act: Republicans 219 Yea/0 Nay, Democrats 0 Yea/203 Nay. Women won’t forget. This is a permanent stain on the Democratic Party and its leadership that will echo in eternity.

• @drawandstrike

• Keep your eye on the ActBlue failure cascade. It’s going to lead somewhere big. Nothing focuses national attention like the sudden collapse of a rotten fraud financial House of Cards. MESA bill from Sessions will be the follow up after the ActBlue collapse. It’s all connected. The machines. The money-laundering of tax payer funds. The fake voter registrations. (video)

• @CvilleBubble

• Gov. @GlennYoungkin talks with @IngrahamAngle about the dismantling of DEI and a restoration of merit-based opportunity at UVA: "This is a big day for the University of Virginia and makes a huge statement for universities across the nation." The Board resolution eliminates programs & practices violating the Constitution, Civil Rights Act & Trump EO. (video)

• @DC_Draino

• Whoa - a House staffer was caught with a gun heading to Trump’s SOTU and this is the 4th time an incident like this has happened. In 1 of these events, the person had a concealed gun just feet from Trump US Capitol Police needs a new Chief asap This can’t be allowed to happen.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 47.75 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.5 -.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.1 +1.9%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.66%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.86%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by real estate and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.