Friday, March 21, 2025

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Diminishing China Stimulus Optimism, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Commodity Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.99 -.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.6 euros/megawatt-hour +.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.1 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.7 +1.0 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +8.4% +5.8 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.58 +.04:  Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 20.3 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.56% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 412.31 +.14: Growth Rate +19.2% unch., P/E 28.9 -.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .28 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.43 -3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 30.25 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -1.76% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.8% +1.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.46% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 67.3% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 46.7%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -242 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +242 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/financial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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