Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.99 -.03%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 100.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.6 euros/megawatt-hour +.9%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.1 +.2 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.7 +1.0 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +8.4% +5.8 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.58 +.04: Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 20.3 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.56% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 412.31 +.14: Growth Rate +19.2% unch., P/E 28.9 -.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .28 +1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.43 -3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 30.25 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -1.76% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.8% +1.2 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.46% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 67.3% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 46.7%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -242 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +242 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/financial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
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